I don’t know what the odds were on Burnley +2.5, but I’m gonna say the lads covered.
The Result:
Manchester City 2, Burnley 0
How It Happened:
Again, Burnley outplayed their result, with 1.1 expected goals (both shot-based and non-shot) against 2.4 or 2.5 for the hosts. Not a bad performance from the lads. Nothing else too special.
What It Means:
Burnley’s relegation probability, per FiveThirtyEight (which is also where we get the expected goals) is down to 42%, and a Newcastle loss to Tottenham tomorrow (at Newcastle) would leave the lads 18th in the table (19th if Newcastle gets a point or more). That 42% number may drop slightly if Chelsea holds on here against Brentford.
What’s Next:
Saturday, at Southampton. Big opportunity there.
Other News:
Nothing too big that I saw. In partner club land, Ayr United got a big win over Queen of the South, pulling to the top of the bottom half of the table in the Scottish Championship; while Portadown fell to Ballymena, keeping them down in tenth in the twelve-team Norther Ireland Premiership.
Thoughts:
Got through it without getting obliterated on goal differential. Big pair of league matches coming up, with a visit from Brentford following the Southampton trip. Hoping to get up to a point per match by the end of the calendar year, probably need four points out of these next two to get there.
