Fresh NIT Bracketology, and…look. We’re still just trying to figure out how many teams are in this thing.
Matt Norlander published something yesterday saying Dallas is the most likely destination, but we’ve now heard that about both Dallas and New York, with Asheville a rumored second city and Indiana previously speculated-upon. And three of those sites have come from Norlander, meaning there isn’t exactly a great deal of buzz. There’s been no report of anything other than a 16-team field, but that’s not officially announced, so we also don’t know if automatic bids will be a thing.
David Worlock, for his part, sent us a GIF yesterday saying we’d hear news soon (what a sentence that is). Hopefully we do, because while we understand the desire to wait and design the best NIT possible (and have supported that previously and still do support it), a lot of people don’t know the NIT’s going to happen this season, and frankly, that’s hurting our pageviews and the general NIT spirit.
The latest NITuation:
Movin’ Out (Anthony’s Song): SMU, Navy, Eastern Washington (auto-bid), Wagner (auto-bid)
SMU slides out as Minnesota slides in. Navy slides out as Loyola Marymount slides in (and as the Patriot League schedule and tournament format got almost-finalized in our model yesterday, which hurt the Mids a little bit).
Wagner got bit by the almost-finalization, as our model learned of the NEC’s four-team tournament, something that makes it hard for a regular season champion to lose. Both they and Eastern Washington are still key players in the automatic bid picture, if there are automatic bids, but neither is in our projected field, at least for the moment.
Moving In: Minnesota, Loyola Marymount, James Madison (auto-bid), South Dakota (auto-bid)
What a loss by Minnesota. Northwestern! At home! There was a time, about a month and a half ago, when this would’ve happened and everyone would’ve said, “Aw shucks. That Northwestern. I’ll tell ya.” Now, everyone’s saying, “Aw shucks. That Minnesota. I’ll tell ya.” And we’re smiling while we say it.
Loyola Marymount was not on my bingo card, but we’re happy they’re here. LMU’s fun. We’re about fun. They’ve got some climbing to do, and they might need to find a way to beat Gonzaga once to do it (their final schedule currently appears to be: Gonzaga, San Francisco, Pepperdine, Gonzaga), but they’re at least close enough to the mix that they’re in a 32-team field, and who knows, maybe the 32-team field will happen after all.
James Madison steps back in as Wagner exits. South Dakota evicts Eastern Washington (who got something of a push from things like Weber State winning last night) as the Summit League becomes almost-finalized. Coyotes just need to…let’s see if I can remember this. Coyotes need to either sweep North Dakota State or split with them while South Dakota State loses once to UMKC. That’s to win the regular season title. Actually sounds kind of hard. But likely enough, evidently (it helps that South Dakota will be an underdog in the Summit League tournament).
Teams on NIT Turf Who Are Too Likely to Win Their Conference Tournament
Still just Marshall and Winthrop. Would each be a projected 5-seed.
The Sixteen
Here’s the projected bracket if it’s 16 teams and they’re seeded without regard for conference or rematch or anything like that:
1. Richmond
16. Syracuse
8. Michigan State
9. Seton Hall
5. Minnesota
12. Memphis
4. Western Kentucky
13. Mississippi
3. Duke
14. Stanford
6. UC-Santa Barbara
11. Saint Mary’s
7. Indiana
10. Penn State
2. Xavier
15. Toledo
First round Big Ten rematch! Spicy! Also Syracuse/Richmond would be about even money, meaning if you’re into 1/16 upsets (AND YOU ALL SAID YOU WERE I WATCHED HOW YOU REACTED TO UMBC), you might get one.
Next in Line
Below the 16-team field, from closest to close:
Marshall
Winthrop
Belmont
Saint Louis
Utah State
Kentucky
Georgia
Louisiana Tech
Loyola Marymount
North Texas
Providence
St. John’s
Next out of Line
Above the field, from closest to close:
SMU
Wichita State
Georgia Tech
UConn
Colgate
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
Colorado State
Drake
Boise State
Louisville
Oregon
***
And that’s the NITuation.
Other notes today:
- Belmont lost to Eastern Kentucky in a complete and total self-sabotage. Casey Alexander, why, man? What’d we do? Hard to see the Bruins making a 16-team field now unless teams decline bids. Which stinks. Because I love making the Casey-Alexander-looks-like-a-basketball-wearing-a-human-suit joke.
- Michigan State’s win helped solidify their place in the NIT, which is the angle no one is talking about.
- Stanford lost a home game to Oregon, which really screws up the Ducks’ hopes and also pushes the Cardinal to the ropes. Brutal.
- Boise State lost San Diego State. Not dead yet.
- *Boise State lost **to** San Diego State. Didn’t, like, leave ‘em at the mall by mistake.
- Loyola Marymount, of whom we are now speaking, beat Pepperdine in Malibu. Beautiful place to make an NIT charge. That’s what we’ve always called Malibu.
- Western Kentucky looked at the situation and said, “You guys think we don’t belong in the NIT? Watch what we do against a team from that other tournament!” and lost to Houston by fifty. Actually just 24, but you get the idea. Great case made by Big Red & Co.
- Remember San Francisco? *pause for everyone to sigh longingly* They played BYU kinda close last night. Not that close, but close enough for us to be reminded they exist. *another sigh pause* What could’ve been.
- UCLA worked Utah. Don’t like that for either.
- Saint Mary’s held Pacific to 46 points. What they could do in an NIT setting…get excited, everyone. Low scores for the whole table.
- Penn State hosts Purdue tonight, and everyone (one guy in our comments, who might be right) is in a tizzy about it because of the Penn State sub-.500 thing. Damn Big Ten scheduling a lot of games.
- Richmond visits Saint Louis in a HIGH STAKES A-10 game. I mean this is really a big one.
- North Texas visits Marshall in a HIGH STAKES Conference USA game. Also legitimately big.
- UC-Santa Barbara visits Joe Kelly’s alma mater UC-Riverside in a HIGH STAKES Big West game. Again. Big.
- Utah State hosts Nevada. Not huge, but the Aggies could really use the win.
- Drake visits Bradley. Play the ominous music, Fargo (Fargo’s the dog that we don’t have yet but I’m speaking to as though she’s already here because I’m really excited to go get her next weekend).
- St. Bonaventure hosts George Washington, and I’m looking across the room at St. Bonaventure and we’re both wondering if they still have feelings.
- Loyola hosts SIU, and there’s still a universe in which Loyola makes the NIT despite being a top-ten team in KenPom and that’s a universe I want to inhabit.
Happy Friday. Or should I say, Fryday. Or maybe just Friday. I don’t know. Probably will just eat stuff from the fridge. It’s Lent.
