We had 16 teams yesterday morning. Tonight, we will only have eight. Where will the other eight go? It’s of no concern to you. Let the NIT do with its prey as it sees fit. Nature is nature, after all.
Before we get into yesterday’s action and today’s lineup, a note: I’m not going to be all that keyed into the games happening out side the state of Texas, and I doubt I’ll update the NIT Bracket Challenge scoreboards until after the games are all done. I’m hitting the road in a few minutes for Denton, where North Texas was gracious enough to invite me to attend their game against Sam Houston State. I will be focused on that game, and on conducting an in-house NIT immersion program for the locals.
Now.
What’s up.
We’re going to do our three things from each of yesterday’s games first (what happened, what it means for the NIT, one additional thought) before hitting a question for each of today’s six. Ready? Too bad. We’re an unstoppable force, much like the NIT, and we just left the station.
Vanderbilt 66, Michigan 65
What happened:
I’m not sure anybody knows. After falling behind 17–5 in the early going, Michigan was the better team throughout, getting a huge first half from Dug McDaniel and a huge second from Hunter Dickinson (who I’ve decided I like, by the way—I think he tries too hard to be cool but it’s really on-brand for Michigan and he played his NIT minutes with his usual chutzpah, which is all we ever ask). Then, leading by eight with about a minute left, the wheels came off. A three-point play for Tyrin Lawrence cut things to five, and from there, Michigan became unable to hold onto the ball long enough to get fouled. Three straight turnovers. Six Vanderbilt points. Two attempts at the buzzer for the Wolverines, but no luck. Tears. Seriously! Tears!! Terrible look for the haters. Michigan cared.
What it means for the NIT:
Vanderbilt will now get a home game in the quarterfinals against either UAB or Morehead. Compared to last year, when they had to play that round on the road at Xavier, this is a great draw. Memorial Gymnasium was more than half full today, and students start classes again on Monday. We could see a packed, rocking atmosphere for that one.
One additional thought:
For as well as Vanderbilt’s been playing, I’d still imagine every other team in this would rather see the Commodores than Michigan in Las Vegas. One of the favorites got knocked out today.
Cincinnati 79, Hofstra 65
What happened:
Cincinnati looked *good.*
This is the thing about Hofstra: They weren’t some tiny nobody shocking the world when they beat Rutgers. I mean, technically, yes, they kind of were that, but Hofstra isn’t much worse than Vanderbilt on paper. Hofstra was a good team.
In the first half, that showed. Aaron Estrada got going a little bit, and every Bearcat push, the Dutchmen answered, heading into the break down only three.
In the second half, it got bad. Estrada’s misses piled up, Landers Nolley reminded everyone why he won Most Outstanding Player in 2021, the crowd was a non-factor. Cincinnati punished Hofstra on the road.
What it means for the NIT:
Cincinnati is now, per KenPom, the fourth-best team remaining in the field, trailing Oregon, Oklahoma State, and North Texas. None of those are on Cincinnati’s side of the bracket.
Are the Bearcats favored to make the championship? I wouldn’t say so. Because of the floor maintenance at Fifth Third Arena, they have to go on the road next round whether they’re the better seed or not, and they’ll have to do that at altitude, playing either Colorado or Utah Valley. That’s a harsh draw. Get through it, though, and yeah, I’d expect them to be favored over Vanderbilt or whoever comes out of the Clemson Region, even if the line is close.
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ToNITe (today), one question per game:
12:00 PM EDT: Liberty @ Wisconsin (ESPN2)
What does the crowd look like in Madison? Greg Gard’s pulling out some stops, offering free tickets and free donuts to students, but the risk of apathy is high. For the players, Wisconsin definitely isn’t the better team here, but Liberty relies so highly on Darius McGhee that they have a lot of risk, and Darius McGhee hasn’t seen many—if any—defenses as good as that of the Badgers.
2:00 PM EDT: Eastern Washington @ Oklahoma State (ESPN2)
Is Steele Venters good enough? Eastern Washington is a giant underdog here, and Oklahoma State is at least projecting a lot of anticipation for the game. It’s one of those schools where an NIT sellout wouldn’t surprise, especially after the postseason ban last year. Gallagher-Iba might be legitimately hostile, and Eastern Washington hasn’t dealt with a lot of that. The idea behind Venters is that he’s a Jimmy Chitwood type who can transcend it, but there’s a lot of fairytale in there.
3:00 PM EDT: Morehead State @ UAB (ESPN+)
Will Jelly Walker beat UAB? This is not intended as a jab at Walker, I love watching Jelly Walker play, who could not love Jelly Walker. This is more like the McGhee thing with Liberty: The guy takes a lot of UAB’s shots. The Blazers are the biggest favorite of the second round, and that tees up an opportunity for Walker to score 40 in his final home game or die trying. If he’s chucking and not hitting, Morehead will have a chance, especially if they in turn play within themselves. Morehead’s a decent rebounding team, and they make teams beat them inside. Most often, teams do, but there are elements where you could see the matchup being bad for their hosts.
4:00 PM EDT: Sam Houston State @ North Texas (ESPN+)
Who will outscrap whom? North Texas and Sam Houston State are two of the best defensive teams in the country, North Texas offering no good shots and Sam Houston State picking pockets like the Parisians your travel agent warned you about. To make these things happen, each fouls. A lot. At some point, the refs can’t call them all. This is looking like a demolition derby. The universe is kind.
7:30 PM EDT: UCF @ Oregon (ESPNU)
Which UCF? Because there are a few. Oregon’s playing at home a long, long way from Orlando, but when UCF is good, they are not fun to play, and depending on Oregon’s headspace, that could mean a lot before the NITe is through.
9:30 PM EDT: Utah Valley @ Colorado (ESPNU)
Can the Buffs slow down UVU? New Mexico couldn’t. Utah Valley ran all over New Mexico. Colorado’s strong defensively and engages outside, though, with the capability of forcing Utah Valley into uncomfortable situations. If it’s a track meet—which Colorado does like to play and employed to beat Tennessee way back in November—it probably favors the visitors. That Tennessee result and all. No KJ Simpson, remember.
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Lot of defense out there today. Lot, lot, lot of defense. Only in the NIT, friends.
