A lot of college football happens off the field. Recruiting is more important than in arguably any other college sport. Coaching changes carry dynastic implications. Conference realignment both drives and reacts to shifts in power structures, responding to the strengths of teams’ fanbases and the interests of casual fans. There’s a committee which decides who will make the College Football Playoff.
Most of this committee’s work is a formality. This is the tenth College Football Playoff, and it’s poised to potentially be the first with any serious controversy. Only three other times—2014 (Ohio State vs. Baylor/TCU), 2018 (Oklahoma vs. Ohio State), and 2020 (Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M)—was there much controversy at all, and none of those disagreements look particularly serious in hindsight. The Big 12 took the fall in 2014 for its lack of a conference title game. Ohio State’s 29-point loss at Purdue was more than enough to earn them exclusion in 2018. Texas A&M had a good win in 2020 and a blowout loss to a good team, just like Notre Dame, but Notre Dame’s win was better and Notre Dame had another ranked win to go with it. As we prepare for a potential “doomsday scenario,” one in which the committee is forced to arbitrarily choose between traditionally qualified playoff teams, we prepare for uncharted waters. Unlike recruiting or coaching changes or conference realignment, the attention the committee receives is usually undue, a reflection of ESPN’s recognition that rankings drive ratings more than an indication of real consequence lying in committee members’ hands. This year…we’ll see. Honestly, it’s probably still more attention than the committee deserves. Including from us. The games happen on the field.
We’ll talk playoff scenarios at the bottom, and the playoff does add a layer of stakes to these. But even if this were the 1980s, before any sort of unified national championship reached college football, these would be a heck of a two days ahead.
Game by game, from biggest to smallest (only conference championships—FCS playoff notes here):
The SEC Championship
Who: Georgia vs. Alabama
When: Saturday, 4:00 PM EST
TV: CBS
I’m sorry, but one piece of playoff talk:
If Alabama wins and gets left out, how hard will Greg Sankey push for them to claim a national championship? Would Nick Saban resist?
Ok, the game.
Alabama has spent more time in the spotlight this year than Georgia, which could lead to some overestimation of the Dawgs. Neither team is perfect. We’ve seen Alabama’s imperfections up close. Georgia has rarely played the biggest game of a given weekend.
Still, Georgia is probably the better team. Even in their latest lackluster performance—one in which a third-down conversion saved them from giving Georgia Tech the ball and a chance to force overtime—they controlled the game throughout, only briefly trailing and never giving the Yellow Jackets a second-half chance to take the lead. Carson Beck continues to look better and better, and the last time Georgia looked full-on mediocre was in September, when they struggled to survive an Auburn team who only passed for 88 yards that day. If we’re using Auburn as the measuring stick, Alabama doesn’t have anything on the two-time defending champs.
Georgia’s issue this season has been inconsistency when it comes to playing to its ceiling, something which could relate to a lack of ability but—given the stupendous talent on Georgia’s roster—more likely revolves around focus, something hard to maintain when you’re a team full of 20-year-olds, many of whom have never lost a college football game. One thought with this is that focus is a choice, or that it comes naturally when big games present themselves. As plenty a coach will tell you, though, flipping the switch can only do so much. You can turn it on in a given week and play better than when the switch was off, but if the switch was off all summer…
The risk for Georgia, then, is that their ceiling maybe isn’t actually that high. Their signature victories—the pummeling of Mississippi in Athens, the pounding of Tennessee at Rocky Top—came against teams who aren’t among the country’s ten best. Missouri, similarly, the team who gave Georgia almost all they could handle, is not a great football team. Mizzou is good, and impressive, and a heck of a lot of fun, but if they can compete with Georgia, Alabama can certainly compete with Georgia.
“Brock Bowers was out against Missouri,” goes the argument, and maybe the argument’s correct. But for as much as Alabama’s offensive line has struggled at times with even basic cohesion, and for as ugly as some of Jalen Milroe’s games were, the strength of Alabama’s victories is comparable, on paper, to that of their opponent’s. Nick Saban’s staff adjusted to Milroe’s weaknesses and found ways to torch defenses while lowering the number of choices the quarterback has to make. The talent is still immense in Tuscaloosa, and the defense isn’t the best in the country but it makes plenty of plays. And if anyone has experience preparing for the SEC Championship…
I don’t *think* Alabama should win. I don’t *think* Alabama is better than Georgia. But the possibility loudly exists that they are, and even if they aren’t, a well-timed turnover or a red zone stop or a few electric Milroe plays down the stretch could flip this game in Alabama’s favor, restoring Tuscaloosa’s version of order to the SEC.
The Pac-12 Championship
Who: Washington vs. Oregon
When: Friday, 8:00 PM EST
TV: ABC
The final Pac-12 Championship also manages to be the biggest in the game’s history. Since expanding to twelve teams in 2011, the Pac-12 has never put two one-loss teams in the same championship game. Never in the playoff era has each team had a realistic shot at the playoff. It doesn’t hurt that each of these schools is the other’s favorite rival.
People struggle to describe Washington, because they have a conception of Washington from early in the season that doesn’t match what Washington became as the year went on. Early in the year, Michael Penix Jr. was a Heisman contender and the team looked a lot like Oregon. Now, there are questions about their defense, their offense struggles to execute consistently, and while they’re more efficient through the air they’ve been relying on a whole lot of production from Dillon Johnson out of the backfield. The Huskies haven’t won by more than ten points since the fourth week of the season. This is not a dominant football team.
Still, Washington is a very good football team, and while some of that 6–0 record in one-score games is probably luck, there’s also a skill to it which was evident in last week’s Apple Cup escape. Kalen DeBoer knows what he’s doing when he’s coaching a live football game. He knows which choices are correct. He knows how likely it is to get one yard, and how valuable it is to get thirty instead of one at the right time. This isn’t to say that DeBoer is some oracle, or that every choice he makes is guaranteed to work, but the man is unafraid to do the smart thing and end up looking dumb. Hand a few of Ryan Day’s decisions last weekend to Kalen DeBoer, and folks across the country are wondering whether it really was the sign-stealing propping Michigan up these last few years.
Oregon, though, looks great. Oregon is measuring out as a top-five team, not just a top-five résumé. Florida State and Texas would each probably be an underdog against Penn State. Oregon would not be an underdog against Penn State. Dan Lanning has built a less talented version of Georgia and Alabama out on the West Coast, and while the talent caps just how good this Oregon team can be, the execution is special. The execution is the extra gear which pulls Oregon away from the pack.
Yes, Oregon lost head-to-head in Seattle. No, Bo Nix is not as talented as Jayden Daniels at LSU. But college football requires perfection, or as close to perfection as man can get. Bo Nix executes at a level approaching perfect. He’s not the only Duck who does this. Washington has its work cut out for it tonight in Las Vegas.
The ACC Championship
Who: Florida State vs. Louisville
When: Saturday, 8:00 PM EST
TV: ABC
Florida State wasn’t great to begin with, and then they lost one of their best players, and that best player—Jordan Travis—happened to be their quarterback. It’s a bad recipe, especially when rebuilding quarterback depth is still on Mike Norvell’s program–conversion to-do list. It might not even be Tate Rodemaker under center tonight. The second-stringer, who played against Florida, has reportedly been experiencing concussion symptoms, leaving four-star freshman Brock Glenn taking most of the first-string reps in practice. The dropoff from Rodemaker to Glenn should theoretically be smaller than the dropoff from Travis to Rodemaker, but theoretically isn’t always correct.
Still, Florida State has “dudes,” as the commentators say. Florida State has talent. Florida State has big, strong, fast men. Louisville doesn’t have quite as many. Louisville has done admirable work this year, and Jeff Brohm is an excellent coach who has the program pointed firmly in a successful direction. Louisville could conceivably be Florida State’s main ACC challenger for seasons to come. But Louisville is here for the same reason Florida State is still undefeated: The ACC is bad. This isn’t college basketball, where mid-major leagues might be better than it, but the ACC is decidedly worse than every other Power Five conference.
Ironically, this is a huge complaint from Florida State, the team poised to benefit from this weakness on both ends of the ACC’s brief competitive surge. The ACC used to be bad, and Florida State made a playoff off of that, and then the ACC got good, and Florida State struggled. Now, the ACC is bad again, and Florida State is benefitting (credit for beating LSU, but a few teams beat LSU), and the Seminoles are furious at how bad their conference-mates are. The Seminoles want to leave the ACC over this. They just can’t find the landing place or the money.
Betting markets are viciously anti-FSU this week, and we think that’s a dramatic overreaction to the circumstances, but betting markets are better predictors than our opinions. FSU is only favored by a couple points. Against Louisville. Either Rodemaker-Glenn has to answer the critics, the defense has to shut Louisville down, or the offensive line has to open a lot more holes than it’s used to generating in the middle of the field. Making matters worse, Florida State might not only need to win to make the playoff. They also might need to look good doing it. (Although it would be very emblematic of FSU’s ACC situation to somehow draw Iowa in the Orange Bowl, finish 14–0, and then complain about the disrespect.)
The Big 12 Championship
Who: Texas vs. Oklahoma State
When: Saturday, 12:00 PM EST
TV: ABC
I’m gonna ask.
Is Texas back?
The answer is probably not. Texas has played two very good games this season, and just because the second was their most recent game doesn’t make up for all the underwhelm in between. Like Washington, Texas struggled to beat what solid competition they faced, and while they mostly got the job done, there are questions over whether the 3–1 record in one-score games is sustainable. The Alabama that Texas beat wasn’t the Alabama that pulled away from LSU in that electric second half. The Alabama that Texas beat was the Alabama who, one week after losing to the Longhorns, went into the half tied 3–3 at USF. This doesn’t mean Alabama should be ranked ahead of Texas, but as a matter of how good Texas is…that game is not what it would be if it happened again.
Texas does have a major asset in Quinn Ewers, who makes plenty of bad throws but possesses a strong understanding of what his job is during every moment of the game. Quinn Ewers knows what he’s doing, even if he can’t always do it. That’s a pretty good way to upset-proof a football team.
Oklahoma State, like Louisville, has been a fun story, rallying all this way after looking like one of the worst power conference teams in the country late into September. When Oklahoma State beat Kansas State, it was a shocking indictment of the Wildcats under Chris Klieman. When Oklahoma State came back to down BYU in overtime, it was expected. The team that lost by a combined score of 78–10 to South Alabama and UCF is the same team who absolutely was capable of beating Oklahoma, and who didn’t need the flukiest game in the world to do it. Oklahoma State is a magic 8 ball.
What does Oklahoma State do well? Oklahoma State runs the ball. Ollie Gordon is physical and fast, and the line is far from bad. Beyond that, though, the team has issues. Alan Bowman put up a big yardage number in Bedlam, but the Cowboys ran 79 plays from scrimmage that day and only scored 27 points. Oklahoma State is best when Oklahoma State stays on the field, converts its scoring chances, and lowers the sample size for their opponent. That’s Oklahoma State’s path to being the team that gets to tell Texas they are *not* back.
The Big Ten Championship
Who: Michigan vs. Iowa
When: Saturday, 8:00 PM EST
TV: FOX
Here’s the recipe for Iowa:
- Stop Michigan on every possession.
That’s it!
Iowa is not going to score a lot of points. We’re used to that by now. Iowa has not scored more than 22 points in a game since the end of September, and their median total over that stretch is 15. That’s against defenses worse than Michigan’s. Iowa really might get shut out tomorrow night. But at the same time: Iowa’s defense is probably better than Michigan’s. Iowa’s defense is probably the best defense in the country. It’s second-best by raw yards-per-play against the pass. It’s ninth-best by raw yards-per-play against the run. Adjusting for opponent, even having played in the Big Ten West, Iowa comes out on top defensively in systems like SP+, where it measures one point better than Michigan and 4.8 points better than Georgia. The offense will not do its part, and the gigantic spread on this game (22 points) is reasonable, but the path to an upset is simple the same way the upset path is simple for basketball teams who shoot a ton of threes: If Iowa is successful every time at the thing it does well, Iowa can win the Big Ten Championship.
More likely, Michigan bullies Iowa. Penn State is also great defensively and Michigan bullied Penn State. Penn State might be even better in the defensive trenches than the Hawkeyes, and Michigan let that game be decided by running the damn ball. The biggest risk for Michigan might be getting too cute and letting Iowa’s secondary show its teeth.
It would be very fun. It would be the most fun upset of the weekend. That’s largely because it is, on paper, the worst game.
The AAC Championship
Who: SMU @ Tulane
When: Saturday, 4:00 PM EST
TV: ABC
One of our worst takes of 2023 on this site was that SMU would not help the ACC’s quality of competition in football. SMU is an odd choice for the ACC as a school, unlikely to help in the long run financially, but drop this SMU team into this year’s ACC and SMU would be a title contender. SMU would be maybe a 1-point underdog this weekend against Louisville. Rhett Lashlee, in his second year of his first head coaching job, should probably be a candidate for national coach of the year.
SMU began the year rather quietly. They played fine against Oklahoma and TCU but didn’t put a significant scare into either. Then, in October, they started pissing on teams. Straight up pissing on teams. Pissing all over teams. I apologize for the image, but SMU is the Mustangs, and SMU pissed like a bunch of racehorses all over the American Athletic Conference. Over its final six games, SMU won by an average score of 50–18. They played some decent teams on the road in there, too.
Tulane is having another good year themselves, and there’s the “know how to win” factor at play with these guys, who are experienced not only in general but in high-stakes situations like this one. This is the same core that rolled UCF in last year’s AAC Championship then stunned USC in the Cotton Bowl. It’s the same team that—with a backup quarterback—played Mississippi within a touchdown over the first 57 minutes of their meeting in Week 2.
It’s unlikely SMU can play its way into a New Year’s Six bowl (we think the committee has signaled it prefers Liberty if Liberty and SMU both win), but SMU could win the AAC in its final season as a mid-major, and if it does, don’t be surprised if we have these guys third in next year’s ACC to start the fall. Tulane? They’ll keep on doing Tulane. Willie Fritz has something special going on down there, and Louisiana is a state ripe for a second power to rise, located in a seat of football talent and close to both Florida and Texas’s fertile recruiting ground. We used to talk a lot about ULL as a potential mid-major to break through, given the recruiting terrain and the number of big-dollar donors hypothetically attached. Tulane might have more of the latter. They’ve certainly got their coach if they can keep him.
The Conference USA Championship
Who: New Mexico State @ Liberty
When: Friday, 7:00 PM EST
TV: CBSSN
Unexpectedly the second-most nationally impactful Group of Five championship, Conference USA owes a heavy debt to Liberty. Liberty was never all that good in the FCS, but Hugh Freeze built a strong foundation in Lynchburg, and Jamey Chadwell has done exactly what you would expect Jamey Chadwell to do in the wake of that.
We should be clear that Liberty is not a great team. Liberty would be, by Movelor (our model’s rating system), the fourth-best team in all three of the AAC, Sun Belt, and Mountain West. But controlling your sphere is an accomplishment no matter what that sphere is, and so far this year, Liberty has controlled its Conference USA sphere.
Opposite Liberty is one of the feel-good stories of the season in NMSU. Jerry Kill, recently sidelined by seizures, took the head coaching job in Las Cruces before last season, and after an unexpected bowl berth last fall now has the Aggies looking at a 12-win season (they played in Hawaii, so they got to play an extra game). NMSU is close enough to Liberty in quality that this has a good chance of being a good game. NMSU is *really* not a great team, but within their sphere…
The MAC Championship
Who: Toledo vs. Miami–Ohio
When: Saturday, 12:00 PM EST
TV: ESPN
Jason Candle has been Toledo’s head coach since the 2015 Boca Raton Bowl (who can forget), but this is the season the Rockets seem to have put it all together. After a two-point loss to Illinois to open the year, Toledo hasn’t been beaten, and with a different bounce for Tulane or Liberty these guys might be ranked right now. They’re one of the most effective rushing teams in the country, not adjusting for opponent, and their defense is stiff, on par with teams like Kentucky and Oregon State.
Miami, meanwhile, could get to twelve wins this year for the first time since a guy named Ben Roethlisberger led them to a #10 ranking at the end of 2003. Brett Gabbert was supposed to be a big deal for the RedHawks, but since he got hurt in the first meeting with Toledo, Miami’s gone a perfect 4–0, highlighted by a two-touchdown upset of Ohio on the road. Their offense isn’t much, and so they struggled to pull away from teams, but their defense is even better than Toledo’s, grading out between Oregon’s and Texas A&M’s in SP+. That is outrageously good for a team in the MAC.
This is the best MAC Championship, in terms of each team’s record, since the 2012 game, when Jordan Lynch and NIU earned an Orange Bowl berth against the Kent State team who earned Darrell Hazel the Purdue job. Forget Texas. Maybe it’s the MAC who’s back.
The Sun Belt Championship
Who: Appalachian State @ Troy
When: Saturday, 4:00 PM EST
TV: ESPN
The Sun Belt is, to be clear, the best mid-major football league this season, top to bottom. The problem for the Sun Belt is that it did something boneheaded and didn’t consider a scenario where JMU might become bowl-eligible when it drafted its conference championship eligibility rules. So, instead of JMU and Troy playing here with a Peach Bowl spot (or something similar) on the line, it’s Troy vs. App State. Good, but not great.
Troy is an admirable football team, dominant against the run and strong through the air, with Gunnar Watson quietly one of college football’s more successful quarterbacks. Their only losses came on the road against Kansas State and by two points to James Madison, and beyond JMU, no one in the Sun Belt regular season played them closer than a seven-point game. Appalachian State, meanwhile, really is the team they’ve been against UNC the last two years: High-octane, vulnerable defensively, and inconsistent enough to provoke frequent excitement. Appalachian State is a riot. This game isn’t all that meaningful nationally (it could set up a JMU vs. Liberty meeting in the New Orleans Bowl, but…we said “nationally”), but it should be a really good time. Isn’t that what we’re all after in the end?
The Mountain West Championship
Who: Boise State @ UNLV
When: Saturday, 3:00 PM EST
TV: FOX
This is a football game that’s happening, and it’s happening in Las Vegas, but not at the Raiders’ stadium.
Wait!
Hold everything.
UNLV does play at Allegiant Stadium.
Clearly, I have not watched any UNLV games this year at home.
Allegiant Stadium is going to host two conference championships in the next 24 hours.
What a buzz.
The thing with this football game is that Boise State almost didn’t make a bowl. Boise State is 7–5, and they had to close the season on a 4–1 run to get there, the last two wins coming after the administration pulled the plug on Andy Avalos, the coach whose continued employment was jeopardizing what Chris Petersen (and Dirk Koetter and Dan Hawkins and Bryan Harsin) built. We’ve written about Avalos’s failings before, and we don’t have anything against the guy. He just didn’t have a lot of success as Boise State’s coach, which is wild considering he went 8–0 in the Mountain West regular season last year. The program is perpetually in a precarious place, its tradition strong but its floor devastatingly low. Avalos was struggling to steer the ship, but the Broncos got him out of there, and now their talent has pulled them back to the top. This is the most talented team in the Mountain West, with no one but Fresno State particularly close. It’s looked that way the last few weeks.
UNLV, meanwhile, is another of those great stories this season, not unlike New Mexico State. The problem there is that you don’t necessarily want NMSU to be your comparison if you’re a football program. UNLV lacks talent, lacks tradition (one bowl appearance since 2000), and mostly got here by taking care of business. They went 2–3 against bowl-eligible teams, and the second of those wins—the victory over Air Force in Colorado Springs—came after Air Force had begun its rapid unscheduled disassembly. UNLV has plenty of potential as a program, and the future is bright, but more than anything *this year*, Barry Odom’s first-year success is a testament to what a well-coached team who strives to take care of business can do.
The SWAC Championship
Who: Prairie View A&M @ Florida A&M
When: Saturday, 4:00 PM EST
TV: ESPN2
In the final conference championship game, the SWAC title is always a fun one. You’ve got the bands, you’ve got the history, we probably won’t have any Deion Sanders barbs this year but you never know. FAMU is 10–1, only lost to USF, and rolled through their SWAC schedule from start to finish, with a 45–7 blowout of this same PVAM team the peak of the campaign in October. Prairie View is 6–5, and they finished on a hell of a run to get here (they were 3–5 following the FAMU loss), but they are overmatched on paper.
Watch the name Willie Simmons this offseason. FAMU’s coach, tasked with a job at the school most notable last year for a paperwork failure which almost made the team forfeit its game against UNC, is now 43–13 as a head coach in Tallahassee after going 21–11 for Prairie View, outside of Houston. The guy wins football games, and if he can win this one, he gets another national broadcast against Howard in the Celebration Bowl.
***
Now.
Those scenarios.
Who’s going to make the playoff?
There are 32 scenarios for how the Power Five conference championships could go, in terms of winners and losers. There are more scenarios within there—blowouts, close games, controversial endings, games involving injury—but at the core of it, there will be one winner in five different games, and that means there are 32 combinations of winners.
We ran our model four different ways to get a grasp on 1) the likelihood of each scenario and 2) who’d make the playoff in each scenario. Here’s what we found, with full tables below (we will do a similar exercise tomorrow morning, but in a streamlined version):
The Straightforward Ones (6 Scenarios, 37% Likely)
- Oregon/Michigan/Texas/Georgia/Florida State (21% likely using betting odds)
- Washington/Michigan/Texas/Georgia/Florida State (7%)
- Oregon/Michigan/Oklahoma State/Georgia/Florida State (4%)
- Oregon/Michigan/Oklahoma State/Georgia/Louisville (3%)
- Washington/Michigan/Oklahoma State/Georgia/Florida State (1%)
- Washington/Michigan/Oklahoma State/Georgia/Louisville (1%)
If Georgia wins, they’re in. If Michigan wins, they’re in. According to our model, Washington, Florida State, and Oregon are all at least 89% likely to make the field with a win, no matter who else wins. In these specific scenarios, that number is 95%.
If Georgia, Michigan, and Florida State all win, the fourth team is going to be the winner of the Pac-12 Championship, barring a big surprise from the committee.
If Georgia, Michigan, Oklahoma State, and Louisville win, the third team will be the Pac-12 champion and the fourth team will be Ohio State. Ohio State’s at least 93% likely in these scenarios.
Alabama vs. Texas vs. Georgia (2 Scenarios, 16% Likely)
- Oregon/Michigan/Texas/Alabama/Florida State (12%)
- Washington/Michigan/Texas/Alabama/Florida State (4%)
The “doomsday scenario” we wrote so much about on Wednesday isn’t actually all that likely. There are other messy combinations of results, but it’s more likely than not that at least one of Michigan, Texas, and Florida State loses, leaving the committee choosing between teams who lost their last game (Georgia, Ohio State, and possibly Michigan or Washington) rather than teams who won and have traditionally deserving résumés. There will be disagreement in those scenarios, but collective anger will be lesser than it is in these.
In these, we don’t know who the committee will take. If we run our model with the committee still as high on Georgia as they were before Georgia played Mississippi, Georgia has a good chance to survive even having lost the SEC Championship. If we run it with Georgia treated more conventionally, it’s a coin toss between Alabama and Texas. There’s no good precedent, so we really don’t know what the committee will do.
Ohio State’s Fringe Paths (10 Scenarios, 42% Likely)
- Oregon/Michigan/Texas/Georgia/Louisville (17%)
- Oregon/Michigan/Texas/Alabama/Louisville (10%)
- Washington/Michigan/Texas/Georgia/Louisville (5%)
- Washington/Michigan/Texas/Alabama/Louisville (3%)
- Oregon/Michigan/Oklahoma State/Alabama/Florida State (2%)
- Oregon/Michigan/Oklahoma State/Alabama/Louisville (2%)
- Oregon/Iowa/Texas/Georgia/Florida State (2%)
- Oregon/Iowa/Texas/Alabama/Florida State (1%)
- Washington/Michigan/Oklahoma State/Alabama/Florida State (1%)
- Washington/Michigan/Oklahoma State/Alabama/Louisville (1%)
(Probabilities don’t sum to 42% because of rounding)
In all of these scenarios, Ohio State has a chance of some sort. Remember: The committee had the Buckeyes ahead of both Texas and Alabama this week. Conventional wisdom would say that Texas or Alabama should jump the Buckeyes, but Ohio State has the best loss in the country (on the road by six points against a top-2 team) in addition to a road win over Notre Dame and a home win over Penn State. They don’t have the conference championship chip to play, but in normal seasons, they’d be a strong candidate, and if the chaos comes now, the committee will at least give them a look. Ohio State has a very bad chance of jumping Florida State. But they could conceivably hold off Texas or Alabama, depending where exactly the committee had each team prior to this weekend.
In the plurality of probable outcomes, at least the way we’ve split them up, enough chaos will happen that Ohio State will come into play. The further up this list, the worse for OSU (If only FSU loses, conventional wisdom’s probably right and Texas is probably in as the fourth team), but the further you go down it, the better it looks for Ryan Day’s team.
If Iowa Wins (14 More Scenarios, 5% Likely)
- Oregon/Iowa/Texas/Georgia/Louisville (1%)
- Oregon/Iowa/Texas/Alabama/Louisville (1%)
- Washington/Iowa/Texas/Georgia/Florida State (1%)
- Washington/Iowa/Texas/Georgia/Louisville (1%)
- Washington/Iowa/Texas/Alabama/Florida State (0.3%)
- Oregon/Iowa/Oklahoma State/Georgia/Florida State (0.3%)
- Washington/Iowa/Texas/Alabama/Louisville (0.3%)
- Oregon/Iowa/Oklahoma State/Georgia/Louisville (0.2%)
- Oregon/Iowa/Oklahoma State/Alabama/Florida State (0.2%)
- Oregon/Iowa/Oklahoma State/Alabama/Louisville (0.1%)
- Washington/Iowa/Oklahoma State/Georgia/Florida State (0.1%)
- Washington/Iowa/Oklahoma State/Alabama/Louisville (0.1%)
- Washington/Iowa/Oklahoma State/Alabama/Louisville (0.04%)
- Washington/Iowa/Oklahoma State/Georgia/Louisville (0.03%)
(Due to the small sample, take all of these scenarios with huge grains of salt.)
This is where the true chaotic potential lies. In most cases. In the two cases above where Iowa wins, we’re back (probably) with some version of the Texas/Alabama argument, possibly with Ohio State thrown in. In these scenarios—the really wild ones—it’s anybody’s guess what happens. Michigan’s overall probability of playoff selection with a loss is something like 20%, but that’s got a huge margin of uncertainty because of how small the number of simulations is which turn up each of those scenarios.
What Michigan would have going for it in these cases would be that Iowa is ranked fairly well. Beat Michigan, and Iowa’s probably pushing the edge of the top ten, by the committee’s traditional ranking standards. Due to the nature of Iowa, the loss would probably be close, too. You can envision scenarios where Iowa beats Michigan, but few of those involve Iowa running Michigan off the field. Still, you’d have Michigan in a similar place to Ohio State—a conference non-champion who missed their chance to play their way in—and there’s an argument between Michigan and Ohio State that’s similar to Texas vs. Alabama: Sure, Michigan won head-to-head, but Ohio State has the better résumé and (if Michigan’s capable of losing to Iowa) is probably the better team. After all, the head-to-head game was in Ann Arbor.
This situation arising is very unlikely. More likely is that Iowa wins and the committee has clear alternatives to place ahead of Michigan. Most likely is that Iowa doesn’t win. But chaos is possible, even if we’ve had so little of it in what looked like it was going to be such a topsy-turvy season.
**
Here’s the simulation data. We ran these four ways, varying whether we used Movelor or betting lines to simulate the games and varying whether we included Georgia’s FPA or not (i.e., whether we allowed our model to keep considering the committee’s early love for Georgia or told our model to assume Georgia had caught up to the committee’s impression of them).
Of these four, I think betting lines are better than Movelor (though Movelor’s very close on a number of games, and generally useful), and I think the truth regarding Georgia lies somewhere between where our model has them with FPA and where our model has them without FPA. We’ll have more of a discussion of this late Saturday or early Sunday if it ends up mattering.
The tables:
Without UGA FPA, Using Betting Lines:
| P12 | B12 | SEC | ACC | B1G | Georgia | Michigan | Washington | Florida State | Oregon | Ohio State | Texas | Alabama | Probability |
| O | T | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 0% | 96% | 97% | 1% | 6% | 0% | 20.7% |
| O | T | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 34% | 66% | 0% | 16.9% |
| O | T | A | F | M | 4% | 100% | 0% | 96% | 97% | 6% | 45% | 52% | 12.0% |
| O | T | A | L | M | 11% | 100% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 23% | 83% | 83% | 9.5% |
| W | T | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 97% | 97% | 0% | 2% | 5% | 0% | 7.2% |
| W | T | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 34% | 67% | 0% | 5.3% |
| W | T | A | F | M | 3% | 100% | 97% | 97% | 0% | 8% | 51% | 44% | 4.2% |
| O | O | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 0% | 99% | 99% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.9% |
| W | T | A | L | M | 13% | 100% | 99% | 0% | 0% | 27% | 84% | 78% | 3.1% |
| O | O | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 3% | 0% | 100% | 97% | 0% | 0% | 3.1% |
| O | O | A | F | M | 14% | 100% | 1% | 99% | 100% | 30% | 0% | 56% | 1.8% |
| O | T | G | F | I | 100% | 5% | 2% | 99% | 99% | 12% | 82% | 0% | 1.5% |
| O | O | A | L | M | 36% | 100% | 3% | 0% | 100% | 73% | 0% | 88% | 1.5% |
| O | T | G | L | I | 100% | 32% | 5% | 1% | 100% | 67% | 95% | 0% | 1.4% |
| W | O | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.1% |
| W | O | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 100% | 2% | 2% | 96% | 0% | 0% | 1.1% |
| O | T | A | F | I | 18% | 3% | 0% | 98% | 100% | 12% | 89% | 80% | 0.9% |
| W | O | A | F | M | 10% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 22% | 0% | 68% | 0.8% |
| O | T | A | L | I | 46% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 100% | 43% | 97% | 95% | 0.8% |
| W | O | A | L | M | 36% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 2% | 75% | 0% | 88% | 0.6% |
| W | T | G | F | I | 100% | 7% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 83% | 0% | 0.6% |
| W | T | G | L | I | 100% | 31% | 100% | 2% | 6% | 63% | 98% | 0% | 0.5% |
| W | T | A | F | I | 18% | 6% | 97% | 100% | 0% | 12% | 82% | 85% | 0.3% |
| O | O | G | F | I | 100% | 35% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 65% | 0% | 0% | 0.3% |
| W | T | A | L | I | 50% | 12% | 100% | 4% | 8% | 31% | 100% | 96% | 0.3% |
| O | O | G | L | I | 100% | 71% | 33% | 0% | 100% | 95% | 0% | 0% | 0.2% |
| O | O | A | F | I | 38% | 25% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 38% | 0% | 100% | 0.2% |
| O | O | A | L | I | 62% | 31% | 23% | 0% | 100% | 85% | 0% | 100% | 0.1% |
| W | O | G | F | I | 100% | 18% | 100% | 100% | 9% | 73% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% |
| W | O | A | F | I | 40% | 40% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 40% | 0% | 80% | 0.1% |
| W | O | A | L | I | 75% | 25% | 100% | 0% | 25% | 75% | 0% | 100% | 0.0% |
| W | O | G | L | I | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% |
With UGA FPA, Using Betting Lines:
| P12 | B12 | SEC | ACC | B1G | Georgia | Michigan | Washington | Florida State | Oregon | Ohio State | Texas | Alabama | Probability |
| O | T | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 0% | 95% | 97% | 2% | 6% | 0% | 19.9% |
| O | T | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 33% | 67% | 0% | 18.2% |
| O | T | A | F | M | 75% | 100% | 0% | 90% | 91% | 1% | 20% | 24% | 11.0% |
| O | T | A | L | M | 90% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 97% | 7% | 53% | 54% | 9.5% |
| W | T | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 97% | 95% | 0% | 1% | 7% | 0% | 6.9% |
| W | T | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 67% | 0% | 5.8% |
| W | T | A | F | M | 74% | 100% | 91% | 89% | 0% | 1% | 23% | 22% | 4.0% |
| O | O | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 0% | 99% | 99% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3.5% |
| W | T | A | L | M | 87% | 100% | 97% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 51% | 58% | 3.5% |
| O | O | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 7% | 1% | 100% | 93% | 0% | 0% | 3.1% |
| O | O | A | F | M | 86% | 100% | 0% | 97% | 96% | 2% | 0% | 21% | 2.0% |
| O | T | G | F | I | 100% | 3% | 3% | 100% | 99% | 19% | 77% | 0% | 1.6% |
| O | O | A | L | M | 98% | 100% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 23% | 0% | 77% | 1.8% |
| O | T | G | L | I | 100% | 36% | 5% | 1% | 100% | 59% | 98% | 0% | 1.5% |
| W | O | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 98% | 98% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 1.3% |
| W | O | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 100% | 1% | 1% | 98% | 0% | 0% | 1.0% |
| O | T | A | F | I | 87% | 0% | 0% | 97% | 97% | 2% | 58% | 58% | 1.1% |
| W | O | A | F | M | 88% | 100% | 96% | 96% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 16% | 0.7% |
| O | T | A | L | I | 95% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 17% | 92% | 89% | 0.8% |
| W | O | A | L | M | 98% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 31% | 0% | 70% | 0.6% |
| W | T | G | F | I | 100% | 3% | 100% | 100% | 6% | 6% | 85% | 0% | 0.3% |
| W | T | G | L | I | 100% | 40% | 100% | 0% | 4% | 58% | 98% | 0% | 0.5% |
| W | T | A | F | I | 90% | 0% | 93% | 93% | 0% | 3% | 69% | 52% | 0.3% |
| O | O | G | F | I | 100% | 7% | 11% | 100% | 100% | 82% | 0% | 0% | 0.3% |
| W | T | A | L | I | 96% | 4% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 15% | 88% | 96% | 0.3% |
| O | O | G | L | I | 100% | 64% | 40% | 4% | 100% | 92% | 0% | 0% | 0.3% |
| O | O | A | F | I | 100% | 6% | 6% | 100% | 100% | 13% | 0% | 75% | 0.2% |
| O | O | A | L | I | 100% | 47% | 7% | 0% | 100% | 47% | 0% | 100% | 0.2% |
| W | O | G | F | I | 100% | 11% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 89% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% |
| W | O | A | F | I | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0.1% |
| W | O | A | L | I | 100% | 67% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 100% | 0.0% |
| W | O | G | L | I | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% |
Without UGA FPA, Using Movelor:
| P12 | B12 | SEC | ACC | B1G | Georgia | Michigan | Washington | Florida State | Oregon | Ohio State | Texas | Alabama | Probability |
| O | T | A | F | M | 2% | 100% | 0% | 97% | 96% | 5% | 43% | 57% | 20.9% |
| O | T | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 0% | 96% | 96% | 2% | 6% | 0% | 18.3% |
| O | T | A | L | M | 8% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 99% | 23% | 83% | 86% | 8.7% |
| W | T | A | F | M | 3% | 100% | 97% | 97% | 0% | 5% | 43% | 55% | 8.0% |
| O | T | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 33% | 66% | 0% | 7.1% |
| W | T | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 96% | 98% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 7.0% |
| O | O | A | F | M | 9% | 100% | 1% | 99% | 99% | 23% | 0% | 69% | 4.5% |
| O | O | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 0% | 99% | 98% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.6% |
| W | T | A | L | M | 10% | 100% | 99% | 0% | 0% | 21% | 84% | 85% | 3.5% |
| W | T | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 99% | 0% | 0% | 31% | 70% | 0% | 2.6% |
| O | O | A | L | M | 30% | 100% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 78% | 0% | 91% | 2.0% |
| W | O | A | F | M | 9% | 100% | 100% | 99% | 0% | 21% | 0% | 70% | 1.9% |
| W | O | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.8% |
| O | T | A | F | I | 9% | 4% | 1% | 100% | 100% | 9% | 89% | 87% | 1.6% |
| O | O | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 5% | 2% | 100% | 93% | 0% | 0% | 1.5% |
| O | T | G | F | I | 100% | 6% | 4% | 99% | 100% | 11% | 80% | 0% | 1.4% |
| W | O | A | L | M | 34% | 100% | 100% | 1% | 1% | 72% | 0% | 92% | 0.7% |
| W | O | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1% | 99% | 0% | 0% | 0.7% |
| O | T | A | L | I | 37% | 22% | 7% | 0% | 100% | 37% | 99% | 99% | 0.7% |
| W | T | A | F | I | 16% | 8% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 8% | 84% | 84% | 0.6% |
| W | T | G | F | I | 100% | 8% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 12% | 80% | 0% | 0.6% |
| O | T | G | L | I | 100% | 26% | 12% | 0% | 100% | 64% | 98% | 0% | 0.6% |
| O | O | A | F | I | 37% | 24% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 54% | 0% | 85% | 0.4% |
| W | T | A | L | I | 52% | 7% | 100% | 0% | 3% | 48% | 97% | 93% | 0.3% |
| O | O | G | F | I | 100% | 25% | 10% | 100% | 100% | 65% | 0% | 0% | 0.2% |
| W | T | G | L | I | 100% | 28% | 100% | 6% | 0% | 67% | 100% | 0% | 0.2% |
| W | O | A | F | I | 38% | 19% | 100% | 100% | 6% | 50% | 0% | 88% | 0.2% |
| O | O | A | L | I | 80% | 47% | 20% | 0% | 100% | 60% | 0% | 93% | 0.2% |
| W | O | A | L | I | 42% | 58% | 100% | 0% | 8% | 100% | 0% | 92% | 0.1% |
| O | O | G | L | I | 100% | 45% | 55% | 9% | 100% | 91% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% |
| W | O | G | F | I | 100% | 17% | 100% | 100% | 17% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% |
| W | O | G | L | I | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% |
With UGA FPA, Using Movelor:
| P12 | B12 | SEC | ACC | B1G | Georgia | Michigan | Washington | Florida State | Oregon | Ohio State | Texas | Alabama | Probability |
| O | T | A | F | M | 71% | 100% | 0% | 91% | 89% | 2% | 19% | 29% | 21.5% |
| O | T | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 0% | 97% | 96% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 18.1% |
| O | T | A | L | M | 88% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 97% | 7% | 48% | 60% | 8.6% |
| W | T | A | F | M | 70% | 100% | 92% | 91% | 0% | 2% | 19% | 27% | 7.9% |
| O | T | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 1% | 0% | 100% | 34% | 66% | 0% | 7.2% |
| W | T | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 97% | 97% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 7.0% |
| O | O | A | F | M | 89% | 100% | 0% | 97% | 96% | 3% | 0% | 15% | 5.1% |
| O | O | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 0% | 99% | 99% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.9% |
| W | T | A | L | M | 90% | 100% | 98% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 49% | 59% | 3.1% |
| W | T | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 37% | 63% | 0% | 2.7% |
| O | O | A | L | M | 98% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 34% | 0% | 68% | 1.9% |
| W | O | A | F | M | 88% | 100% | 98% | 96% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 15% | 1.7% |
| O | O | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 4% | 0% | 100% | 96% | 0% | 0% | 1.7% |
| O | T | G | F | I | 100% | 4% | 0% | 99% | 99% | 17% | 80% | 1% | 1.6% |
| O | T | A | F | I | 88% | 1% | 0% | 94% | 98% | 1% | 54% | 63% | 1.5% |
| W | O | G | F | M | 100% | 100% | 98% | 98% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 1.3% |
| W | T | A | F | I | 82% | 0% | 96% | 97% | 0% | 3% | 51% | 71% | 0.8% |
| O | T | A | L | I | 99% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 8% | 93% | 97% | 0.7% |
| W | O | A | L | M | 95% | 100% | 98% | 0% | 0% | 31% | 0% | 75% | 0.6% |
| O | T | G | L | I | 100% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 100% | 69% | 96% | 0% | 0.6% |
| W | O | G | L | M | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0.5% |
| W | T | G | F | I | 100% | 10% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 7% | 83% | 0% | 0.4% |
| O | O | A | F | I | 100% | 3% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 8% | 0% | 89% | 0.4% |
| O | O | G | F | I | 100% | 25% | 3% | 100% | 100% | 72% | 0% | 0% | 0.3% |
| W | T | A | L | I | 100% | 7% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 97% | 93% | 0.3% |
| W | T | G | L | I | 100% | 43% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 68% | 89% | 0% | 0.3% |
| O | O | G | L | I | 100% | 58% | 25% | 25% | 100% | 92% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% |
| W | O | A | F | I | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 17% | 0% | 83% | 0.1% |
| O | O | A | L | I | 100% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 89% | 0% | 89% | 0.1% |
| W | O | A | L | I | 100% | 44% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 56% | 0% | 100% | 0.1% |
| W | O | G | F | I | 100% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 33% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% |
| W | O | G | L | I | 100% | 50% | 100% | 17% | 50% | 83% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% |
