Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,980 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,249 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got a college basketball pick for tonight, and we’ve got a college football play for the whole weekend. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 17–10. We’re up 5.36 units and we’re up 32%.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 71–71–3. We’re down 5.86 units and down 4%.
Liberty vs. College of Charleston
Apologies for this being last-minute, but this is looking like great value. It’s low because Liberty got worked last night by FAU and is playing a back-to-back, but rest is of questionable value in college basketball and Liberty is a lot better than Charleston this year as a team. We’re getting away from our free throw approach for a moment, but only for a moment. We’re taking the better team to win comfortably, free throws not included (Liberty’s a terrible free throw shooting team, so hopefully free throws actually won’t be necessary at the end).
Pick: Liberty –4 (–110). Low confidence.
Conference Championships (Parlay)
This is a little bit of a Hail Mary, but we don’t have a ready we like on either of tonight’s games other than liking Oregon to win. Parlays take a lot of heat, but they’re fun, and a lot of the heat they take is mathematically misinformed. If we like these five teams to win (which we do, even if we don’t love Toledo to cover), we can either bet five units across them to win a combined two and a half or risk just the one unit and enjoy some big upside. As a habit? Your expected value isn’t better with the parlay. In an isolated case? Your utility function might favor mixing it all together.
Pick: Parlay – Oregon, Toledo, Boise State, Troy, and Florida State to win +676. Low confidence.
