Here we go!
The Basics
Where: Minute Maid Park
When: 8:09 PM EDT
Broadcast: FOX
Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez (HOU), Charlie Morton (ATL)
Odds: HOU -135; ATL +115; o/u 8 (o -120) [English translation: Houston is roughly 55% likely to win; Atlanta is roughly 45% likely to win; the expected number of runs scored is about 8.2]
The Details
Houston’s made the ALCS now in five straight years, and has made the World Series in three of those seasons. They infamously won in 2017. They lost in 2019 to the Nationals. 2017 was only their second World Series appearance since coming into existence back in 1962 as the Colt .45s, and in that lone prior Fall Classic trip, they’d failed to win a game. They were, for a long time, historically futile. They are no longer historically futile. The franchise that never won a postseason series until 2004 is playing in its third World Series in five years.
For Atlanta, there’s no history of futility, but recent memory revs with frustration. They won the National League pennant five times in the 1990’s, but lost four of those championships, falling to the Twins once, the Blue Jays once, and the Yankees twice. They did win a title in 1995—their third ever (first in Atlanta) unless you count the pre-modern era—but it rings a little hollow given just how close they were, and given how iconic that pitching staff was.
It’s in this historic backdrop that the teams meet this year, each with a sizable fanbase far from the geographic centers of American sports media. One is a 95-game winner, consistently excellent but lacking a bit in the pitching department. One is a team that emerged from a porta potty of a division and has gone on this run on the backs of replacements brought in when its franchise player went down with a torn ACL this summer.
The Stars
Eddie Rosario and Yordan Alvarez led their teams through the LCS, with Rosario more likely to turn back into a pumpkin than his counterpart. Alvarez is no fluke—he was right there with Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve in wRC+ this season, and he outperformed Alex Bregman. Rosario is playing out of his mind, but he was a 3.4-fWAR player as recently as 2018, and he’s only 29 years old, so it’s not entirely shocking that he’s doing this.
Beyond Rosario, Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies key the Atlanta lineup, with Austin Riley likewise a force and Joc Pederson a recognizable persona who’s contributed at big moments so far this run. They’ve got a solid 1-2 punch between Morton and Max Fried, and as Tyler Matzek demonstrated against the Dodgers, there’s a bullpen behind them. Meanwhile, the Astros are heavily dependent on Valdez to turn in a good start, with options sparse in the wake of Lance McCullers’s injury.
Overall, the series is about a tossup. Which is quite the fun place to start.
