1. That was a big win.
The Cubs winning that game means a lot, both statistically (there was a decent swing in playoff probability tied to the game) and emotionally. Confidence boost, mind calmer, etc. Best win of the season so far.
2. Alec Mills came through.
Told an hour and a half before the game that he might be starting, Mills gave the Cubs a chance with four solid innings. He got a couple good breaks, sure—three smoked balls by the Brewers in the third and fourth were caught for outs—but he went beyond any reasonable expectation in that situation.
3. Hopefully Kyle Hendricks is fine.
Goes without saying, but scratches due to illness are especially concerning in the Covid seasons.
4. Zooming out, the Willson Contreras drama is fun.
I don’t think the Brewers are trying to hit Contreras. I’m suspicious that they’re trying to back him off the plate, though, and while I haven’t run a t-test or anything like that, Contreras has been hit a lot by the Brewers in recent years, and following up an HBP on the helmet with another HBP is understandably going to piss a guy off. In other words, I think the Brewers are at least somewhat justified in thinking the Cubs are overreacting, and the Cubs are justified in reacting, and I don’t really care about any unwritten rule regarding pitchers throwing at pitchers but if Ryan Tepera did intentionally throw in the direction of Brandon Woodruff—and I agree with the consensus that he did, I think that’s pretty clear—at least he threw behind his legs, which is the safest way to do it. But there, too, I don’t begrudge Woodruff being upset.
Overall, then, we have a natural feud in which neither side’s really that much in the wrong. So when Contreras escalated it by celebrating what turned out to be the game-winning home run with a rather demonstrative trot, I enjoyed it, and I’d think a neutral fan would as well. More of that kind of thing in baseball is probably good for the game.
5. Another tough offensive night.
This is more expected, coming against Woodruff, so maybe it’s a positive that the Cubs managed their sixth-highest xwOBA of the year? They at least reached their median level of walks/contact? In short, nothing changed, but that at least means it didn’t get worse.
6. I wonder how fresh Craig Kimbrel will be today.
Kimbrel threw 19 pitches, which isn’t a ton, but the night game/day game combination figures to give him a shorter night of recovery than usual. Something to keep an eye on if the game’s close, especially since Andrew Chafin’s likely unavailable after pitching each of the last two nights.
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Around the Division:
The Cardinals smoked the Nationals, 14-3. The Pirates jumped on Blake Snell and beat the Padres, 8-4. The Reds fell to the Giants, 7-6. Series finales in St. Louis and San Francisco today. Pirates play the third game of a four-game set with San Diego.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Cincinnati (7-4, 31.9%)
T-2. Milwaukee (6-5, 41.6%)
T-2. St. Louis (6-5, 17.1%)
4. Cubs (5-6, 9.3%)
5. Pittsburgh (4-7, 0.1%)
Up Next:
Day game today for the rubber match.
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Whom:
Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Where:
Milwaukee
When:
12:40 PM Chicago Time
Weather:
Not sure if the roof will be open or closed, but if it’s open, temperatures are in the 40’s outside with winds blowing out to left center at about ten miles per hour. Cloudy skies.
Starting Pitchers:
Jake Arrieta vs. Corbin Burnes
The Opponent:
Burnes found his way onto a good number of Cy Young ballots last year and has allowed just one run over more than twelve innings so far this season, with a 1.44 FIP, 20 strikeouts, and zero walks. Just two starts, but what a two starts it has been. Lorenzo Cain is going onto the IL, and Christian Yelich is still out of the lineup with his back issue.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are at +150 to win against -160 odds for Milwaukee, implying a bit less than a 40% chance of a series win for Chicago. The over/under is currently at 7½.
Cubs News:
Pedro Strop returned to MLB action for the Cubs, which was fun. It also went fairly well (scoreless inning, one strikeout/one walk/one single), which was even more fun.
The four Cubs on the Covid IL are Brandon Workman, Dan Winkler, Jason Adam, and Matt Duffy. Ildemaro Vargas is on the bench in Duffy’s place, having been on the taxi squad and thereby already in Milwaukee. Brad Wieck and Strop are in the bullpen, along with Justin Steele, who we talked about yesterday. Hendricks is not on the Covid IL, and none of those five players have tested positive. Each of the coaches who’ve tested positive had begun the vaccination process but hadn’t had enough time for full immunity to be reached, and each still recommends getting the vaccine.
Austin Romine has been activated from the IL, which means Tony Wolters is gone. Romine will start today and catch Arrieta, which might help neutralize the Contreras situation. Eric Sogard is starting at second base with David Bote at third as Kris Bryant gets a day off (I would presume he’s available to pinch hit).
Cubs Thoughts:
Today’s a tough one, but at least the sweep isn’t possible anymore. I’m hoping against a fight, although now that I write that, I wonder if the Cubs getting chippy could get Corbin Burnes chippy enough to get tossed. Again, not worth it, but would be a funny way to try to chase a starter—entice him to hit somebody. Very curious about what Arrieta will do—wrote after his last start about how FIP and xwOBA entirely disagree on his performance so far.
