Over last season’s 162 games, Joe Kelly threw 894 pitches, of which roughly 450 were fastballs, according to Statcast. Those fastballs averaged 98 mph, peaking somewhere in the low 100’s, near his career high of 102 mph.
With this season only 60 games long, Joe Kelly should be expected to throw only 331 pitches, of which one would expect roughly 165 to be fastballs.
Yes, that’s a lot fewer fastballs for Joe Kelly’s total velocity. So many fewer fastballs that, to answer this blog post’s titular question, Joe Kelly could throw a 265-mph fastball this year.
The math is simple: 450 fastballs times 98 miles per hour comes out to about 44,000 total miles per hour. Divide those 44,000 total miles per hour by 165 fastballs in 2020, and you get the 265 mile-per-hour number. It’s not the speed of sound, but it’s closer than anyone’s gotten before.
Good luck, West Division.
