The College Football Playoff field will be announced on Sunday, with the Power Five Conference Championships likely the only determining factor in who does and does not make the field. Rather than talking through each game’s impact, then, we’re going through each of the 32 possible combinations of victors in order of likelihood, showing who our model thinks will make the playoff in each potential outcome.
Note: Some playoff probabilities won’t sum perfectly to 400.0%, due to rounding.
1. Utah, Oklahoma, LSU, Clemson, and Ohio State win (occurs in 17.4% of our model’s 4,000 simulations)
Ohio State – 100.0% Playoff Probability
LSU – 100.0%
Clemson – 100.0%
Utah – 60.9%
Oklahoma – 35.9%
Georgia – 3.2%
In the chalkiest scenario, Utah has the edge over Oklahoma and Georgia, but it’s close enough to be uncertain, and the manner of victory (crisp blowout vs. sloppy and close) could matter.
2. Oregon, Oklahoma, LSU, Clemson, and Ohio State win (13.0%)
Ohio State – 100.0%
LSU – 100.0%
Clemson – 100.0%
Oklahoma – 85.1%
Georgia – 13.1%
Oregon – 1.5%
Utah – 0.2%
This is straightforward. Unless the committee has Georgia much higher than our model’s guess, Oklahoma is the fourth team in. It’s worthwhile to note that Utah’s ranking currently puts them within our model’s most extreme margin of error. That’s a systematic flaw, though, and you’ll likely see a few of them going forward. Our model isn’t perfect, but thankfully it’s good enough to only churn out wildcards like this 0.2% of the time.
3. Utah, Oklahoma, Georgia, Clemson, and Ohio State win (12.5%)
Ohio State – 100.0%
Clemson – 100.0%
LSU – 99.8%
Georgia – 97.2%
Oklahoma – 1.6%
Utah – 1.4%
This might seem something of a bold statement, but nothing in the past five years of the CFP suggests that LSU or Ohio State is missing this playoff.
4. Utah, Baylor, LSU, Clemson, and Ohio State win (8.8%)
Ohio State – 100.0%
LSU – 100.0%
Clemson – 100.0%
Utah – 70.1%
Baylor – 25.9%
Georgia – 4.0%
Baylor’s got a chance in this scenario, but it isn’t a great one.
5. Oregon, Oklahoma, Georgia, Clemson, and Ohio State win (8.6%)
Ohio State – 100.0%
LSU – 100.0%
Clemson – 100.0%
Georgia – 98.5%
Oklahoma – 1.5%
No surprise here.
6. Utah, Baylor, Georgia, Clemson, and Ohio State win (6.6%)
Ohio State – 100.0%
LSU – 100.0%
Clemson – 100.0%
Georgia – 97.4%
Utah – 1.9%
Baylor – 0.8%
7. Oregon, Baylor, LSU, Clemson, and Ohio State win (6.5%)
Ohio State – 100.0%
LSU – 100.0%
Clemson – 100.0%
Baylor – 75.0%
Georgia – 21.9%
Oregon – 3.1%
It’s possible Georgia’s likelihood should be lower here, but given how the committee’s handled them all year, it’s possible even a loss to LSU wouldn’t be enough to drop them past Baylor.
8. Oregon, Baylor, Georgia, Clemson, and Ohio State win (4.5%)
Ohio State – 100.0%
Clemson – 100.0%
LSU – 99.4%
Georgia – 98.9%
Baylor – 1.7%
Perhaps the most chaotic reasonably possible scenario (i.e., one that doesn’t involve Clemson or Ohio State losing) results in a rather mundane Sunday.
9. Utah, Oklahoma, LSU, Clemson, and Wisconsin win (3.9%)
Ohio State – 100.0%
LSU – 100.0%
Clemson – 100.0%
Utah – 41.4%
Wisconsin – 29.9%
Oklahoma – 27.4%
Georgia – 1.3%
Now it starts getting fun. Or something like that, depending on your interests.
10. Oregon, Oklahoma, LSU, Clemson, and Wisconsin win (2.5%)
Ohio State – 100.0%
LSU – 100.0%
Clemson – 100.0%
Wisconsin – 58.0%
Oklahoma – 37.0%
Georgia – 3.0%
Utah – 1.0%
It’s worth noting here that the error margins grow for these probabilities as the likelihood of the event grows smaller, since our model has fewer simulations from which to pull. Still, it believes there will, at the very least, be a debate between Wisconsin and Oklahoma for the final spot should this one-in-forty possibility come to fruition. Wisconsin would have the better best victory. Oklahoma would have the less damaging worst loss. Wisconsin would have one more loss, but on the road against a playoff team.
11. Utah, Oklahoma, Georgia, Clemson, and Wisconsin win (2.3%)
Ohio State – 100.0%
Clemson – 100.0%
LSU – 98.9%
Georgia – 93.4%
Utah – 3.3%
Wisconsin – 3.3%
Oklahoma – 1.1%
If you’re a Utah, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Oregon, or Baylor fan, you do not want Georgia to beat LSU.
12. Utah, Baylor, LSU, Clemson, and Wisconsin win (2.0%)
Ohio State – 100.0%
LSU – 100.0%
Clemson – 100.0%
Utah – 50.0%
Wisconsin – 33.3%
Baylor – 15.4%
Georgia – 1.3%
13. Oregon, Oklahoma, Georgia, Clemson, and Wisconsin win (1.6%)
Ohio State – 100.0%
Clemson – 100.0%
Georgia – 98.5%
LSU – 96.9%
Wisconsin – 3.1%
Oklahoma – 1.5%
14. Oregon, Baylor, Georgia, Clemson, and Wisconsin win (1.3%)
Ohio State – 100.0%
LSU – 100.0%
Clemson – 100.0%
Georgia – 98.0%
Baylor – 2.0%
15. Utah, Baylor, Georgia, Clemson, and Wisconsin win (1.1%, or 45 of the 4,000 simulations)
Ohio State – 45 of 45 simulations
LSU – 45 of 45 simulations
Clemson – 45 of 45 simulations
Georgia – 43 of 45 simulations
Utah – 2 of 45 simulations
We probably should have done this sooner, but we’re into the small-enough probabilities now that we shouldn’t be giving % probabilities, because those would be misleading (they’ve been error-prone for a while now, but probably not actually all that misleading).
Also, we have yet to see Clemson lose, something that happens only in the last six percent or so of simulations.
16. Oregon, Baylor, LSU, Clemson, and Wisconsin win (43 of the 4,000 simulations)
Ohio State – 43 of 43
LSU – 43 of 43
Clemson – 43 of 43
Wisconsin – 32 of 43
Baylor – 10 of 43
Georgia – 1 of 43
A takeaway we should note is that if both win this weekend, our model seems sold on Wisconsin jumping Baylor. It keeps putting that at about 75% likely. Not guaranteed, but certainly interesting.
17. Utah, Oklahoma, LSU, Virginia, and Ohio State win (39 simulations)
Ohio State – 39 of 39
LSU – 39 of 39
Utah – 34 of 39
Oklahoma – 30 of 39
Clemson – 7 of 39
Georgia – 7 of 39
Would Clemson make it with a loss? Probably not. Strength of Schedule vs. Game Control/Eye Test, I suppose.
18. Utah, Oklahoma, Georgia, Virginia, and Ohio State win (34 simulations)
Ohio State – 34 of 34
Georgia – 34 of 34
LSU – 34 of 34
Utah – 21 of 34
Oklahoma – 11 of 34
Clemson – 2 of 34
19. Utah, Baylor, LSU, Virginia, and Ohio State win (30 simulations)
Ohio State – 30 of 30
LSU – 30 of 30
Utah – 28 of 30
Baylor – 20 of 30
Clemson – 6 of 30
Georgia – 6 of 30
20. Oregon, Oklahoma, LSU, Virginia, and Ohio State win (29 simulations)
Ohio State – 29 of 29
LSU – 29 of 29
Oklahoma – 27 of 29
Georgia – 20 of 29
Clemson – 8 of 29
Oregon – 3 of 29
It looks like if it comes down to it, a two-loss Georgia would trump a one-loss Clemson as well as a two-loss Oregon. Unclear, though. This is kind of like when you blow up a digital image too large and it’s all pixelated: hard to tell what we’re seeing at this angle.
21. Oregon, Oklahoma, Georgia, Virginia, and Ohio State win (23 simulations)
Ohio State – 23 of 23
Georgia – 23 of 23
LSU – 23 of 23
Oklahoma – 20 of 23
Clemson – 3 of 23
22. Utah, Baylor, Georgia, Virginia, and Ohio State win (21 simulations)
Ohio State – 21 of 21
Georgia – 21 of 21
LSU – 21 of 21
Utah – 15 of 21
Baylor – 4 of 21
Clemson – 2 of 21
23. Oregon, Baylor, Georgia, Virginia, and Ohio State win (20 simulations)
Ohio State – 20 of 20
Georgia – 20 of 20
LSU – 20 of 20
Baylor – 14 of 20
Clemson – 6 of 20
24. Utah, Oklahoma, LSU, Virginia, and Wisconsin win (14 simulations)
Ohio State – 14 of 14
LSU – 14 of 14
Oklahoma – 11 of 14
Utah – 9 of 14
Wisconsin – 8 of 14
25. Oregon, Baylor, LSU, Virginia, and Ohio State win (13 simulations)
Ohio State – 13 of 13
LSU – 13 of 13
Baylor – 13 of 13
Clemson – 5 of 13
Georgia – 4 of 13
Oregon – 4 of 13
26. Oregon, Oklahoma, LSU, Virginia, and Wisconsin win (9 simulations)
Ohio State – 9 of 9
LSU – 9 of 9
Wisconsin – 7 of 9
Oklahoma – 6 of 9
Georgia – 3 of 9
Clemson – 1 of 9
Oregon – 1 of 9
27. Utah, Oklahoma, Georgia, Virginia, and Wisconsin win (9 simulations)
Ohio State – 9 of 9
LSU – 9 of 9
Georgia – 9 of 9
Utah – 4 of 9
Wisconsin – 3 of 9
Oklahoma – 2 of 9
28. Oregon, Baylor, LSU, Virginia, and Wisconsin win (5 simulations)
Ohio State – 5 of 5
LSU – 5 of 5
Wisconsin – 5 of 5
Baylor – 3 of 5
Georgia – 2 of 5
29. Utah, Baylor, LSU, Virginia, and Wisconsin win (5 simulations)
Ohio State – 5 of 5
LSU – 5 of 5
Wisconsin – 4 of 5
Utah – 4 of 5
Baylor – 1 of 5
Georgia – 1 of 5
30. Oregon, Baylor, Georgia, Virginia, and Wisconsin win (3 simulations)
Ohio State – 3 of 3
LSU – 3 of 3
Georgia – 3 of 3
Wisconsin – 3 of 3
31. Oregon, Oklahoma, Georgia, Virginia, and Wisconsin win (2 simulations)
Ohio State – 2 of 2
LSU – 2 of 2
Georgia – 2 of 2
Wisconsin – 2 of 2
32. Utah, Baylor, Georgia, Virginia, and Wisconsin win (1 simulation)
Ohio State – 1 of 1
LSU – 1 of 1
Georgia – 1 of 1
Wisconsin – 1 of 1
***
Obviously, after a while the exercise becomes meaningless. One simulation is not enough to base a prediction off of. But the probability of that one scenario coming to pass is unlikely enough that really, it doesn’t matter.
Even so, we’ll be back tomorrow morning after the Pac-12 Championship with fewer scenarios and a little more precision. Also, having seen how Oregon or Utah performed in the victory, we’ll have a slightly better idea of what the committee might think.
