We’re all waiting for something to end. For the 40 million Americans on food stamps, it’s the government shutdown. For the 10 million Americans who subscribe to YouTube TV, it’s the standoff between YouTube TV and ESPN, which is asking YouTube TV to raise its rates on customers for the third time in three years. Why is ESPN asking YouTube TV to do that? I think it’s the Dril budget tweet, but with Stephen A. Smith instead of candles.
40 million of our friends and neighbors wait to see when they can again feed their children.
10 million of their friends and neighbors wait to see if ESPN gets our money, and if it does, whether that will stop its employees from advertising a scammy solitaire app to the legions of mentally ill sports fans who spend their days on social media.
Which will end first? It’s hard to say. The Democrats are the ones who can end the shutdown but don’t want to. They correctly predicted that if there’s nonsense happening in D.C., most voters would assume Trump’s the one who started it. I can’t imagine why.
On the other side, ESPN’s the one who can end the YouTube TV standoff but doesn’t want to. They incorrectly predicted that if Scott Van Pelt told us all YouTube TV was evil, we’d fall in line and temporarily sign up for Fubo, which Disney partially owns in addition to ESPN. (Honestly, I’m as shocked as anyone that this messaging didn’t work.)
If we’re allowed to cross playbooks, ESPN’s path out of this is simple: Extract a tiny concession—say, YouTube TV agrees to “accidentally” break one Fox Sports stream a month—claim victory, and carry on without changing anything. Call it a trade deal and move forward. Sometimes, you lose.
With the shutdown, it’s harder to see an endgame. Nothing from the world of sports television really applies to a situation where people could starve a little, flights are being delayed, and one side is scoring a ton of political points while the other awaits marching orders from a crazy old man who spends all of his time on the internet. There are prediction markets set up for this, and right now they’re implying that the shutdown will end sometime around next Friday. I see no prediction markets concerning YouTube TV. Maybe ESPN Bet wouldn’t have gone belly up if it had let us wager on the things we care about. Who needs a solitaire scam when you can juice the odds on your own negotiations breakdown? Idiots.
As an optimistic guy, I’m setting the over/under for the YouTube TV deal at next Wednesday, and I’m taking the under. Hopefully, ESPN gets through Eagles vs. Packers, sees not enough people switching to Fubo or Hulu (which Disney also owns), and relents on Tuesday. That’s our hope here, sports fans.
As for the people who are worried about starving:
I am very sorry, and I promise to use any money YouTube TV saves me from ESPN on supporting the nearest food bank.
**
