It’s a light week for college football, with four of the five main playoff contenders taking the weekend off, and the one that does have a game hosting Wofford. Still, action is happening. Here are the games our model says will impact the playoff picture:
Leaders Trying to Take Care of Business
Wofford @ Clemson (Clemson wins in 100.0% of our 4,000 simulations)
West Virginia @ Baylor (Baylor wins in 88.9% of our simulations)
It’s unthinkable that Clemson would lose to Wofford, but the game does still have to be played, and while our model has it happening in either zero or one of it’s 4,000 simulations, it isn’t impossible.
More pressingly, Baylor hosts West Virginia tonight in Waco. Baylor’s an interesting case in that our model does not think they have much of a playoff shot (2.5%), but also says they’d be ranked sixth if the CFP Committee were already releasing rankings. They’re a sizable favorite, but nowhere near the level of certainty Clemson’s enjoying.
Fringe Contenders Trying to Stay Alive
Utah @ Washington (Utah wins in 52.7% of our simulations)
Oregon @ USC (Oregon wins in 60.9% of our simulations)
Utah and Oregon, like Baylor, don’t have great playoff chances (3.6% and 4.7% respectively). Unlike Baylor, they also aren’t anywhere near the driver’s seat (those estimated rankings that put Baylor sixth have Utah fourteenth and Oregon twelfth). They’ve each got a tough road game this weekend, and while Oregon has the Pac-12’s North division pretty well wrapped up, Utah has USC breathing down its neck in the South, with the Trojans holding the head-to-head advantage. This could end very badly for Utah.
An SEC Semifinal
Florida vs. Georgia (Georgia wins in 59.7% of our simulations)
The winner of Florida vs. Georgia will, more likely than not, win the SEC East. Each has one conference loss, and while each could certainly trip up again over the next few weeks, it would take two losses to overcome the head-to-head advantage the winner of Saturday’s game will enjoy.
In effect, this is an SEC semifinal, which makes it something like the Round of 16 for the College Football Playoff. The winner, should they win again in Atlanta in a month, will go to the playoff. The loser is almost certainly finished.
Georgia’s a slight favorite by our model, but it’s not too far from a tossup. The affair in Jacksonville is always high stakes in a local sense. This year, it’s a big deal nationally as well.
