There was no exceptional amount of drama. Auburn beat Alabama, but it was more a final blow to a sinking ship than something transformational. Joe Burreaux’s senior day was a special moment, but LSU trouncing Texas A&M was just another helping of wood on an already-roaring fire. Ohio State beat Michigan, but when a team has bludgeoned all its opponents, further bludgeonings are the expectation. Wisconsin beat Minnesota, but the prize may only be a bludgeoning and a 50/50 shot at the Rose Bowl.
Still, the weekend shook up the playoff picture. Alabama’s loss was far from meaningless. Wisconsin’s victory added a wildcard shot at intrigue. Oklahoma taking care of business in Stillwater raised a question tomorrow night’s rankings may answer.
Here’s where things stand in the playoff picture following Thanksgiving weekend, what to watch for in tomorrow night’s rankings, and what possibilities exist now that the playoff announcement is only six days away, all through the eyes of our model:
The Top Two
Which, between Ohio State and LSU, lands at number one is not a meaningless debate. Avoiding Clemson would be helpful for either in their national championship quest. So while Ohio State will almost certainly be ranked number one in this week’s rankings, where exactly Wisconsin falls isn’t meaningless. If Ohio State and LSU both win, Ohio State’s second victory over Wisconsin will need to impress the committee enough to hold the advantage over what would be treated as a strong victory for LSU over Georgia. Margin will matter too, of course, but for now, keep an eye on how far the Badgers rise following their defeat of Minnesota.
The other notable question surrounding the top pair is whether either would fall out of the playoff with a loss Saturday. Our model doesn’t think so, putting each at 99.7% or more likely to make the field, staying in the top four in more than 99% of even the simulations in which they lose.
Clemson
Clemson’s ticket is, of course, punched should they do the expected and beat Virginia. They’re also likely locked into no seed worse than number three.
Our model does give them about a 19% chance of making the field should they somehow lose to Virginia. It’s not a strong chance, but given the potential for chaos and the significant flaws on the résumés of Georgia, Oklahoma, and Utah, it’s not out of the question that Clemson could sneak in even if disaster strikes.
Georgia
The Dawgs don’t have much of a shot at the playoff should they lose to LSU, pulling it off in only 7% or so of those simulations. They might be in the clearest position of anyone: win, they’re in; lose, they’re out. They shouldn’t move in tomorrow night’s rankings.
Utah vs. Oklahoma
We’ve buried the main story here, which is these two. On Oklahoma’s side is a moderately stronger schedule and more impressive victories so far. On Utah’s side is a stronger loss, as well as a head start in that they were ranked ahead of the Sooners last week.
Our model believes Oklahoma is more likely than not to jump Utah this week, though the gap is narrow (more on that below). They went into Stillwater and beat up a ranked Oklahoma State team. Even with the Pokes falling out of the top 25 with the result, a road victory at that margin over a team of that caliber won’t go unnoticed. At the very least, Oklahoma narrowed the gap.
It should be made clear, though, that whichever team lands ahead between these two this week won’t necessarily make the playoff in the scenario in which both win while Georgia loses (a scenario that, while it’s the most likely individual outcome, occurs in only roughly 23% of simulations). If Utah’s ahead, Oklahoma could still jump Utah next week, on the basis of Baylor being a stronger opponent than Oregon. If Oklahoma’s ahead, Utah could jump the Sooners if they beat Oregon in such a manner as to appeal to the committee’s more subjective tastes, and if Oklahoma’s triumph over Baylor is ugly to the committee. Overall, it’s a very fine line between these two, and Oklahoma passing Utah tomorrow night would confirm that Lincoln Riley’s team is, indeed, in the lead.
Baylor’s Chances
Our model still doesn’t believe Baylor has a good chance, even in the event they win their rematch with Oklahoma. In that scenario, they’re only 29% likely to make the field, with their subpar nonconference schedule and their failure to beat teams convincingly holding them back. 29% is far from zero, and in the event Oregon and LSU also win, Baylor would be the front-runner for the fourth seed, but even then, they would be guaranteed nothing.
Wisconsin’s Path
Wisconsin’s ranking is, as was said, important for Ohio State’s chances in the event the Buckeyes do not win on Saturday. It’s also important for Bucky, though. Despite both their losses, including one at Illinois, our model indicates Wisconsin has a 3.8% chance of making the playoff. They’ve played a difficult schedule. They’ve beaten good teams at home and on the road. If they beat Ohio State, they’d have one of the best victories in the country.
It’s a longshot, but it’s likely an 11-2 Wisconsin would jump an 11-2 Oklahoma, an 11-2 Utah, or an 11-2 Georgia. It’s not likely they’d jump a 12-1 Baylor, or a 12-1 Clemson, but it’s possible. And while it’s unlikely they’d jump a 12-1 Ohio State, our model already assumes the Buckeyes are in regardless. If Wisconsin comes in better than 10th in the rankings, their chance should creep even higher. If they’re lower, it will recede, but it will still most likely exist. The Badgers, improbably, are alive, though very narrowly so.
The Also-Rans
With Saturday’s defeat, Alabama is down to only 0.3% likely to make the field, a number that could disappear altogether following tomorrow night’s rankings. Oregon is at 0.7%, and will remain a possibility until Friday night at the earliest, but is also vastly unlikely to crack the field. Finally, Florida is at 0.1%, but they, like Alabama, may vanish tomorrow night. Overall, it’s a seven or eight-team race, with all those teams in action Friday and Saturday.
Where Our Model Expects the Rankings to Land
Here’s our model’s expectation of how tomorrow night’s top 25 will shake out. The number in parentheses is where each team falls on a 0-100 scale between the best FBS team/résumé (Ohio State) and the worst FBS team/résumé (UMass). It’s useful for illustrating how close, or far, teams are from one another.
1. Ohio State (100.0)
2. LSU (99.6)
3. Clemson (93.7)
4. Georgia (88.3)
5. Oklahoma (84.6)
6. Utah (84.2)
7. Baylor (83.6)
8. Alabama (83.2)
9. Florida (82.8)
10. Wisconsin (82.4)
11. Auburn (80.1)
12. Penn State (79.9)
13. Oregon (79.6)
14. Minnesota (79.3)
15. Michigan (78.4)
16. Notre Dame (78.1)
17. Memphis (76.7)
18. Iowa (74.8)
19. Boise State (74.6)
20. Appalachian State (72.6)
21. Navy (71.3)
22. USC (70.9)
23. Cincinnati (70.2)
24. Air Force (70.0)
25. SMU (69.7)
The Best Teams
Finally, here’s how the aggregate ratings our model employs to predict the outcomes of individual games view the top teams in the country. The number in parentheses is the number of points by which each would be expected to lose against the best team in the country on a neutral field.
1. Ohio State (0.0)
2. Clemson (5.3)
3. Alabama (5.8)
4. LSU (6.0)
5. Georgia (9.5)
6. Oklahoma (12.8)
7. Utah (13.0)
8. Florida (13.5)
9. Auburn (13.9)
10. Wisconsin (14.3)
11. Penn State (14.3)
12. Michigan (15.0)
13. Oregon (16.8)
14. Notre Dame (16.9)
15. Baylor (18.7)
16. Washington (20.8)
17. Memphis (21.0)
18. Iowa (21.2)
19. Texas A&M (21.8)
20. UCF (22.0)
21. Minnesota (22.0)
22. USC (23.0)
23. Iowa State (23.0)
24. Texas (24.2)
25. Oklahoma State (25.3)
26. Appalachian State (25.3)
27. Boise State (26.5)
28. Kansas State (26.9)
29. Air Force (26.9)
30. Indiana (27.0)
31. Washington State (27.1)
32. Navy (27.5)
33. TCU (27.7)
34. Tennessee (28.0)
35. North Dakota State (28.1)
