The second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs begins tonight. Here’s how Gelo sees the field.
The Favorite
- Edmonton Oilers (22.3% Stanley Cup Probability; 3.16 Gelo, 3.66 Ogelo, 3.35 Dgelo)
The Oilers are the best team left on the ice. They’re on the road this round, and they’re playing the team Gelo views as the second-best team left on the ice, but the Oilers are the best. Importantly, as it was with the Bruins, this doesn’t mean Edmonton is favored over the field. The field is more than three times as likely as the Oilers to win this Stanley Cup. But the Oilers are the likeliest individual team.
The Contenders
- Toronto Maple Leafs (14.8% Cup Probability; 3.07 Gelo, 3.46 Ogelo, 3.24 Dgelo)
- Vegas Golden Knights (13.6% Cup Probability, 3.08 Gelo, 3.12 Ogelo, 2.89 Dgelo)
Just because Gelo views the Knights as better than the Leafs today doesn’t mean Gelo will view the Knights as better than the Leafs after each plays its Game 1. Changes of three points of Gelo from a single game aren’t uncommon, as we’ve found our most accurate Gelo is one that responds quickly to results.
Still, the Knights are a good hockey team, good enough that even with the Oilers currently on their docket, they’re almost as likely as the Eastern Conference favorites to win it all.
The Challengers
- Dallas Stars (12.1% Cup Probability; 3.04 Gelo, 2.87 Ogelo, 2.68 Dgelo)
- New Jersey Devils (11.7% Cup Probability; 3.04 Gelo, 3.22 Ogelo, 3.03 Dgelo)
These are two very different teams, with the Stars one of the two best defensive teams remaining and the Devils in the top half offensively, but they’re roughly equivalent, and the differences in their paths (the Stars play the Kraken this round and have home-ice advantage, the Devils play the Hurricanes and start the series on the road) still leave them comparably likely to win it all.
The Challenged
- Carolina Hurricanes (10.2% Cup Probability; 3.01 Gelo, 2.83 Ogelo, 2.67 Dgelo)
- Florida Panthers (9.1% Cup Probability; 3.01 Gelo, 3.56 Ogelo, 3.41 Dgelo)
Things get tougher down here. Even as the Metropolitan Division champions, the Canes are a slight underdog against the Devils this round, at least in Gelo’s eyes. This stems from their inability to score. The average Ogelo at the end of the regular season was 3.05. The Canes are 22 points worse than that. Some of this is probably that their defense keeps games low-scoring, but Carolina struggles to put pucks in the net. On the other side, Florida can’t defend anybody, but they’re still the highest-scoring team left in the Eastern Conference, which is how they broke down the Bruins. Two flawed teams land in similar positions here.
The Underdog
- Seattle Kraken (6.2% Cup Probability; 2.96 Gelo, 3.09 Ogelo, 2.98 Dgelo)
Finally, the Kraken. Our one true underdog. With each of the other seven teams, you can make a case against them being a contender, right down to, “Gelo says the Panthers are just as good as the Hurricanes.” With the Kraken, there’s nothing which says they should win. They’re a little above average. If they beat the Stars, one of the two current best teams in the league awaits. The odds are stacked against Seattle.
