With Week 9 in the books, four college football Saturdays remain before the conference championship matchups are set.
Below, we have all the tiebreaker information we can reasonably offer, but before we get there, a high-level summary of each league:
- ACC: Florida State has almost clinched a title game spot. Behind them, it’s still messy.
- Big 12: It’s still messy.
- Big Ten: It’s too early to tell too much.
- Pac-12: It’s still messy, but Washington could move close to clinching this week.
- SEC: Georgia could move close to clinching the East this week. In a hypothetical tie in the West, LSU will more likely hold the edge than Alabama or Mississippi, but that’s not guaranteed.
- Mountain West: It’s still messy, and it could get vague.
- American: It’s still messy.
- Sun Belt: The East is still messy behind JMU. The West is still messy, but should clear up a lot this week.
- MAC: The East probably belongs to Miami (Ohio); the West probably belongs to Toledo. Neither has clinched, but it would take multiple big surprises for that to change.
- Conference USA: Liberty has clinched one of the two conference championship spots and will most likely host. Behind them, it’s a little messy, but it will clear up some this week and a lot next week.
Here’s where all the tiebreakers stand, as far as we can tell, through games of Saturday, October 28th (you can find our latest tiebreaker scenarios at all times at this link):
ACC Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy (page 12)
The top of the ACC Standings look like this:
- Florida State: 6–0
- Louisville: 4–1
- Virginia Tech: 3–1
- Georgia Tech: 3–2
- North Carolina: 3–2
- Duke: 2–2
- Miami: 2–2
- Boston College: 2–2
- NC State: 2–2
After those nine teams, two more have only three conference losses, and even the four-loss teams (the rest of the conference) probably aren’t yet technically mathematically eliminated. Focusing on the top, though:
- Florida State clinches an ACC Championship appearance with one win in their next two games, which are against Pitt (A) and Miami (H). There are other ways for them to clinch, but the simplest is to beat Pitt on Saturday. Florida State holds head-to-head tiebreakers over Virginia Tech, Duke, and Boston College. They don’t play Louisville, Georgia Tech, UNC, or NC State.
- Louisville’s lone loss came to Pitt. They have head-to-head wins so far over Georgia Tech, Duke, Boston College, and NC State. They have yet to play Virginia Tech (H) and Miami (A) in addition to Virginia (H). That VT game on Saturday is the big one. Louisville does not play FSU or UNC.
- Virginia Tech’s lone loss came to Florida State. They have head-to-head wins so far over none of these teams. The Hokies have yet to play Louisville (A), Boston College (A), and NC State (H), in addition to Virginia (A). They don’t play Georgia Tech, UNC, Duke, or Miami.
- Georgia Tech’s conference losses came against Louisville and Boston College. They have head-to-head wins over UNC and Miami. Georgia Tech doesn’t play any more teams in this part of the standings, closing ACC play against Virginia (A), Clemson (A), and Syracuse (H). They don’t play Florida State, Virginia Tech, Duke, or NC State.
- UNC’s conference losses came against Georgia Tech and Virginia. They have a head-to-head win over Miami. UNC has yet to play Duke (H) and NC State (A), in addition to Clemson (A). They don’t play FSU, Louisville, or Virginia Tech.
- Duke’s conference losses came to Florida State and Louisville. They have a head-to-head win over NC State. Duke has yet to play UNC (A), in addition to Wake Forest (H), Virginia (A), and Pitt (H). Duke does not play Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami, or Boston College.
- Miami’s conference losses came to Georgia Tech and UNC. They have no relevant head-to-head wins so far. They have yet to play NC State (A), Florida State (A), Louisville (H), and Boston College (A). Miami does not play Virginia Tech or Duke.
- Boston College’s conference losses came against Florida State and Louisville. They have a head-to-head win over Georgia Tech. BC has yet to play Virginia Tech (H) and Miami (H) in addition to Syracuse (A) and Pitt (A). They don’t play Duke, Miami, or NC State.
- NC State’s conference losses came against Louisville and Duke. They have no relevant head-to-head wins so far. NC State has yet to play Miami (H), Virginia Tech (A), and UNC (H), in addition to Wake Forest (A). NC State does not play Florida State, Georgia Tech, or Boston College.
Overall? It’s too messy to give any thoughts right now, and if Virginia Tech does win at Louisville, it’s going to be a really chaotic picture. If Louisville wins, it should winnow.
Big 12 Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
With Oklahoma’s loss to Kansas, there are now five teams in the Big 12 with only one conference defeat, while two more sit at 3–2. Here are those standings:
- Oklahoma: 4–1
- Iowa State: 4–1
- Oklahoma State: 4–1
- Texas: 4–1
- Kansas State: 4–1
- Kansas: 3–2
- West Virginia: 3–2
As with the ACC, there’s a chance of a three-loss team getting into the mix (or maybe even a four-loss team, though I haven’t checked how possible that is), but we won’t worry about those for now, both because they’re unlikely to be involved and because they’re unlikely to win out. Of the seven at the top, here’s where each stands:
- The loss hurts Oklahoma, but not so much in tiebreakers. The Sooners have head-to-head wins over Iowa State and Texas, and they have opportunities to get head-to-head wins over Oklahoma State (A), West Virginia (H), and BYU (A) and TCU (H), for whatever those last two are worth. Oklahoma controls its head-to-head fate against everyone besides Kansas, to whom they lost, and Kansas State, whom they don’t play. With Kansas State yet to play both Texas and Iowa State, it’s unlikely they’ll end up in a tiebreaker that matters with the Wildcats.
- Iowa State has the head-to-head loss to Oklahoma, and they’ve beaten Oklahoma State among teams on this list. They have yet to play Kansas (H), BYU (A), Texas (H), and Kansas State (A). The only team on this list they don’t play is West Virginia.
- Oklahoma State’s conference loss came to Iowa State, and they have wins against Kansas State, Kansas, and West Virginia among teams in this territory of the standings. They still have to play Oklahoma (H), UCF (A), Houston (A), and BYU (H), but Oklahoma State is in solid tiebreaker position, if they can get there, given the head-to-head victories they do hold. They don’t play Texas.
- Texas has the loss to Oklahoma, as many remember. Of these teams, they’ve beaten only Kansas. They still have to play Kansas State (H), TCU (A), Iowa State (A), and Texas Tech (H). They don’t play Oklahoma State or West Virginia. Texas doesn’t fully control its fate (it’s unclear if anyone does at this point in this league), but like all these one-loss teams, it’s overwhelmingly likely that winning out would be enough.
- Kansas State has that loss to Oklahoma State, and it has yet to play anyone else with two or fewer Big 12 losses. The rest of the schedule goes Texas (A), Baylor (H), Kansas (A), and Iowa State (H). K-State does not play Oklahoma or West Virginia.
- Getting into the two-loss teams, Kansas’s defeats came to Texas and Oklahoma State, which isn’t helpful. They’ve beaten Oklahoma, which is helpful, but it’s very possible winning out would not be enough to get the Jayhawks a shot at the conference title. Kansas has yet to play Iowa State (A), Texas Tech (H), Kansas State (H), and Cincinnati (A). Like many of these teams, they don’t play West Virginia.
- Who does West Virginia play? Well, they’ve lost to Oklahoma State, but that’s it among teams on this list (their other loss came to Houston). They do still play Oklahoma in Norman, among games against BYU (H), Cincinnati (H), and Baylor (A), but they don’t play Iowa State, Texas, Kansas State, or Kansas. This could go well for West Virginia if they upset Oklahoma, because the first thing the Big 12 does when it breaks ties between teams who hasn’t played is look at how everyone did against teams at the top of the standings. West Virginia therefore really wants Oklahoma to beat Oklahoma State.
Again, it’s just too early in this league to tell as far as who will win whichever tiebreakers become relevant. Thankfully, six of these seven teams play each other this week, so we’ll get at least a little more clarity through that. (…right?)
Big Ten Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy (Note: We haven’t seen this officially confirmed as current, but we haven’t seen anyone refute it, and the Big Ten East tiebreaker situation is prominently in the public eye, so our guess is that if the Big Ten had changed its procedure, it would have made that clear.)
The Big Ten East is the more straightforward of the two. At the moment, the standings look like this:
- Michigan: 5–0
- Ohio State: 5–0
- Penn State: 4–1
Rutgers has two losses, but one of those already came to Michigan, rendering the Scarlet Knights nearly mathematically eliminated.
For head-to-head purposes, Ohio State holds the tiebreaker over Penn State. The other two matchups between these three have yet to happen. For the three-way tie:
If the three-way tie happens, and if all three teams are 8–1 in conference, the deciding factor will be the conference records of each team’s Big Ten West opponents. This most likely favors Ohio State, but that is not looking as certain as it did a week ago, thanks to Northwestern’s upset of Maryland. Here’s how it breaks down:
- Ohio State’s Big Ten West opponents are Wisconsin, Purdue, and Minnesota. (Currently 7–8)
- Michigan’s Big Ten West opponents are Nebraska, Purdue, and Minnesota. (Currently 7–8)
- Penn State’s Big Ten West opponents are Iowa, Illinois, and Northwestern. (Currently 6–9)
Wisconsin and Nebraska have yet to play one another. That game will happen in Madison and could eventually decide the Big Ten East.
If there’s still a two-way tie after completing this step of the tiebreaker process, the tie will be decided by the head-to-head result between those two teams. So, in the hypothetical, Ohio State merely needs its opponents’ records to tie those of Penn State and best those of Michigan, while Michigan is hypothetically concerned with besting Penn State’s and tying Ohio State’s, and Penn State is hypothetically concerned with besting Ohio State’s and tying Michigan’s.
If there’s still a three-way tie after completing this step, the next will be to proceed through all three teams’ records against the Big Ten West in order of the Big Ten West standings. Notably, ties will not be broken with these steps. Also notably, common opponents don’t matter here. If Iowa finishes alone in first place in the West and we’ve reached this tiebreaker, Penn State will win the East by virtue of being 1–0 against the Big Ten West champion while Michigan and Ohio State each went 0–0 against them.
As for that Big Ten West…
Currently, there are five Big Ten West teams with two or three conference losses. Here’s that portion of the standings:
- Minnesota: 3–2
- Iowa: 3–2
- Wisconsin: 3–2
- Nebraska: 3–2
- Northwestern: 2–3
Here’s how each of those five currently measure up:
- Minnesota has beaten Iowa and Nebraska and lost to Northwestern. They have yet to play Wisconsin (H), in addition to Illinois (H), Purdue (A), and Ohio State (A). Minnesota’s other conference loss came to Michigan.
- Iowa has beaten Wisconsin and lost to Minnesota. They have yet to play Northwestern (A) and Nebraska (A), in addition to Rutgers (H) and Illinois (H). Iowa’s other conference loss came against Penn State.
- Wisconsin has lost to Iowa. They have yet to play Northwestern (H), Nebraska (H), and Minnesota (A), in addition to Indiana (A). Wisconsin’s other conference loss was to Ohio State.
- Nebraska has lost to Minnesota and beaten Northwestern. They have yet to play Wisconsin (A) and Iowa (H), in addition to Michigan State (A) and Maryland (H). Nebraska’s other conference loss is Michigan.
- Northwestern has beaten Minnesota and lost to Nebraska. They have yet to play Iowa (H) and Wisconsin (A), in addition to Purdue (H) and Illinois (A). Northwestern’s other conference losses were against Penn State and Rutgers.
At the moment, Iowa’s win over Wisconsin still looms largest, and Minnesota still having to play Ohio State is significant. There’s too much football to go, though, to break down all possible scenarios right now.
Pac-12 Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
The Pac-12 might be very straightforward when all is said and done. Right now, it’s not. Here’s the top of the standings:
- Washington: 5–0
- USC: 5–1
- Oregon: 4–1
- Oregon State: 3–2
- Utah: 3–2
- Arizona: 3–2
- UCLA: 3–2
Here’s how the teams have done against one another, head-to-head, and what they have remaining:
- Washington has beaten Oregon and Arizona. They have yet to play USC (A), Utah (H), and Oregon State (A), in addition to Washington State. They don’t play UCLA.
- USC has beaten Arizona and lost to Utah. They have yet to play Washington (H), Oregon (A), and UCLA (H). They don’t play Oregon State.
- Oregon has beaten Utah and lost to Washington. They have yet to play USC (H) and Oregon State (H) in addition to Cal (H) and Arizona State (A). They don’t play UCLA or Arizona.
- Oregon State has beaten UCLA and Utah and lost to Arizona. They have yet to play Washington (H) and Oregon (A), in addition to Colorado (A) and Stanford (H). They don’t play UCLA. Their other conference loss was to Washington State.
- Utah has beaten USC and UCLA and lost to Oregon State and Oregon. They have yet to play Washington (A) and Arizona (A), in addition to Arizona State (H) and Colorado (H).
- Arizona has beaten Oregon State and lost to Washington and USC. They have yet to play UCLA (H) and Utah (H), in addition to Colorado (A) and Arizona State (A). They don’t play Oregon.
- UCLA has lost to Utah and Oregon State. They have yet to play Arizona (A) and USC (A), in addition to Arizona State (H) and Cal (H). They don’t play Oregon or Washington.
Washington’s in a good place here. It’s possible there’s even a path to them clinching a conference championship spot with a win over USC this weekend. Behind them? It’s too early to tell too much.
SEC Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
The SEC is in a straightforward-ish place. The top of the East standings look like this:
- Georgia: 5–0
- Missouri: 3–1
- Florida: 3–2
- Tennessee: 3–2
With Georgia playing Missouri this weekend and already having beaten Florida, the Dawgs could clinch the East as soon as next week. They do have yet to play Tennessee (as does Mizzou), and their other remaining opponent is Mississippi (H), but if Georgia beats Missouri, the only remaining path to them losing the SEC East requires them to lose to both Mississippi and Tennessee while Tennessee also beats Missouri and Vanderbilt.
In the West, we’re looking at this:
- Alabama: 5–0
- Mississippi: 4–1
- LSU: 4–1
Among these three teams, Alabama has beaten Mississippi and Mississippi has beaten LSU. LSU goes to Tuscaloosa this weekend, where an Alabama win combined with a Mississippi loss to Texas A&M (in Oxford) could clinch the West for Alabama.
If LSU beats Alabama, there still probably won’t be a three-way tie. Mississippi is only narrowly favored against Texas A&M this week, and they still have to go play Georgia next week. If LSU beats Alabama, the SEC West probably belongs to LSU. If there is a three-way tie, though, and it’s a tie at 7–1 (6–2 makes it different), this will go the same direction as the Big Ten East tiebreaker: We’ll be looking at the combined conference records of each team’s SEC East opponents. For that scenario:
- Alabama’s SEC East opponents are Tennessee and Kentucky. (Currently 5–5)
- LSU’s SEC East opponents are Florida and Missouri. (Currently 6–3)
- Mississippi’s SEC East opponents are Georgia and Vanderbilt. (Currently 5–5)
At the moment, LSU has that edge, but this could change. In the event it changes such that there is one team with worse opponent records than the other two, that team will be eliminated and the two remaining teams’ head-to-head result will decide the tiebreak. If a three-way tie still persists after this tie, the division’s SEC Championship representative will be decided by a three-way coin flip like the one they do in Friday Night Lights (the movie).
Mountain West Conference Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
Air Force isn’t yet safe atop the Mountain West, even leading by a game and a half. Here are the standings at the top:
- Air Force: 5–0
- Fresno State: 3–1
- UNLV: 3–1
- Boise State: 3–1
- San Jose State: 3–2
- Wyoming: 2–2
- Nevada: 2–2
Here are the head-to-head situations:
- Air Force has beaten San Jose State and Wyoming. They have yet to play UNLV (H) and Boise State (A), in addition to Hawaii (A). Air Force does not play Fresno State or Nevada.
- Fresno State has lost to Wyoming and beaten both UNLV and Nevada. They have yet to play Boise State (H), San Jose State (A), and then New Mexico (H) and San Diego State (A). Fresno State does not play Air Force.
- UNLV has lost to Fresno State and beaten Nevada. They have yet to play Wyoming (H), Air Force (A), and San Jose State (H), in addition to New Mexico. UNLV does not play Boise State.
- Boise State has beaten Wyoming and San Jose State. They have yet to play Fresno State (A) and Air Force (H), in addition to New Mexico (H) and Utah State (A). Boise State does not play UNLV or Nevada. Their loss came to Colorado State.
- San Jose State has lost to Air Force and Boise State. They have yet to play Fresno State (H) and UNLV (A), in addition to San Diego State (H). San Jose State does not play Wyoming or Nevada.
- Wyoming has lost to Air Force and Boise State and has beaten Fresno State. They have yet to play UNLV (A) and Nevada (A), in addition to Colorado State (H) and Hawaii (H). Wyoming does not play San Jose State.
- Nevada has lost to Fresno State and UNLV. They have yet to play Wyoming (H). Nevada does not play Air Force, Boise State, or San Jose State.
The game between Fresno State and Boise State will provide some clarity. One scenario (and this situation could arise in other scenarios as well): If Boise State and UNLV tie and each is unranked by the CFP committee entering the final week of the regular season, the tie will revert to “composite of selected computer rankings.” We do not presently know which those are, but if it starts looking likely to play a role, we’ll dig deeper.
American Athletic Conference Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
The American still has three teams unbeaten in league play, so we’re only going to focus on zero-loss and one-loss teams for now. Here are those teams:
- Tulane: 4–0
- SMU: 4–0
- UTSA: 4–0
- Memphis: 3–1
- Florida Atlantic: 3–1
Between those five:
- Tulane has beaten Memphis. They have yet to play FAU (A) and UTSA (H), in addition to ECU (A) and Tulsa (H). Tulane does not play SMU.
- SMU hasn’t played any of the other zero-loss or one-loss teams. They have yet to play Memphis (A), in addition to Rice (A), North Texas (H), and Navy (H). SMU does not play Tulane, UTSA, or FAU.
- UTSA has beaten FAU. They have yet to play Tulane (A), in addition to North Texas (A), Rice (H), and USF (H). UTSA does not play SMU or Memphis.
- Memphis has lost to Tulane. They have yet to play SMU (H), in addition to USF (H), Charlotte (A), and Temple (A). Memphis does not play UTSA or FAU.
- FAU has lost to UTSA. They have yet to play Tulane (H), in addition to UAB (A), ECU (H), and Rice (A). FAU does not play SMU or Memphis.
It’s impossible for there to be a three-way undefeated tie here, with Tulane and UTSA yet to play, but that would have been funny and a bad look for the AAC. As it stands, SMU playing none of Tulane, UTSA, and FAU adds potential for an indirect two-team tiebreaker, meaning one where head-to-head can’t be used. In that case, the first thing the AAC looks at is CFP ranking. It’s possible that could apply. If both are unranked, “selected computer rankings” will again be used, and those are specified as: Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley, and Wolfe. Four systems.
Sun Belt Conference Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy
The Sun Belt East is complicated by the league* not allowing James Madison to play in its conference championship game as the Dukes complete their transition to FBS football. The Sun Belt’s justification here is that it wants to make its champion as highly-ranked as possible in an attempt to garner a New Year’s Six bowl invitation, and that because JMU isn’t eligible for the CFP Rankings, they can’t afford to let the Dukes play. (JMU will most likely still make a bowl, but it will be because not enough FBS teams are bowl-eligible and JMU will get the nod before they start looking at five-win teams.)
*We’re not 100% sure this decision is up to the league, but we believe that to be the case. See the note in the Conference USA section below.
Regardless of the wisdom behind that decision, it leaves the Sun Belt East with five one-loss or two-loss teams right now (Marshall has three losses, JMU has none):
- Georgia Southern: 3–1
- Georgia State: 3–2
- Coastal Carolina: 3–2
- Old Dominion: 3–2
- Appalachian State: 2–2
Between those five:
- Georgia Southern has beaten Georgia State and Coastal Carolina. Their loss came against JMU. They have yet to play Old Dominion (H) and App State (A), in addition to Texas State (A) and Marshall (A).
- Georgia State has beaten Coastal Carolina. Their losses came against Georgia Southern and Troy. They have yet to play App State (H) and Old Dominion (A), in addition to JMU (H).
- Coastal Carolina has beaten App State. Their losses came against Georgia Southern and Georgia State. They have yet to play Old Dominion (A), in addition to Texas State (H) and JMU (H).
- Old Dominion has beaten App State. Their losses came against JMU and Marshall. They have yet to play Coastal Carolina (H), Georgia Southern (A), and Georgia State (H).
- App State has lost to Coastal Carolina and Old Dominion. They have yet to play Georgia State (A) and Georgia Southern (H), in addition to Marshall (H) and JMU (A).
Overall, the situation heavily favors Georgia Southern, because they’ve gotten JMU out of the way and that’s their only loss. If there’s a tie, they’re most vulnerable if it includes Old Dominion or Appalachian State, because those are the two who could have a head-to-head advantage.
In the West, Troy might take care of business, but in case they don’t, here are the top five:
- Troy: 3–1
- Louisiana: 2–2
- Texas State: 2–2
- Arkansas State: 2–2
- South Alabama: 2–2
Here are the head-to-heads:
- Troy has beaten Texas State and Arkansas State. Their loss came to JMU. Troy has yet to play South Alabama (H) and Louisiana (H), in addition to Louisiana-Monroe (A) and Southern Miss (A).
- Louisiana has beaten Texas State and South Alabama. Their losses came to Old Dominion and Georgia State. Louisiana has yet to play Arkansas State (A) and Troy (A), in addition to Southern Miss (H) and Louisiana-Monroe (H).
- Texas State has lost to Troy and Louisiana. They have yet to play Arkansas State (A) and South Alabama (H), in addition to Georgia Southern (H) and Coastal Carolina (A).
- Arkansas State has lost to Troy. Their other loss came to Coastal Carolina. They have yet to play Louisiana (H), South Alabama (A), and Texas State (H), in addition to Marshall (A).
- South Alabama has lost to Louisiana. Their other loss came to JMU. They have yet to play Troy (A), Arkansas State (H), and Texas State (A), in addition to Marshall (H).
This is one where the clarity should come pretty quickly, with Troy and South Alabama playing on Thursday night and Louisiana playing Arkansas State this Saturday. Louisiana is poised to be the main competition with Troy, but that game being hosted by Troy further helps the Trojans.
MAC Football Tiebreakers
Link: Tiebreaker Policy (Note: We cannot confirm that this is current.)
MACtion starts this week, at least under the definition of “mid-week MAC football.” This Saturday had the bigger action, though, with Miami taking down Ohio. Here’s where that leaves the East:
- Miami (OH): 4–1
- Buffalo: 3–1
- Ohio: 3–2
- Bowling Green State: 2–2
Here are the head-to-heads:
- Miami has beaten both Ohio and Bowling Green. Their loss came to Toledo, who plays in the West. Miami has yet to play Buffalo (H), in addition to Akron (H) and Ball State (A).
- Buffalo has lost to Bowling Green. They have yet to play Ohio (H) and Miami (A), in addition to Toledo (A) and Eastern Michigan (H).
- Ohio has beaten Bowling Green. Their losses came to Miami and NIU. Ohio has yet to play Buffalo (A), in addition to Central Michigan (H) and Akron (A).
- Bowling Green has beaten Buffalo and lost to both Miami and Ohio. Their remaining games are against Ball State (H), Kent State (A), Toledo (H), and Western Michigan (A).
Overall, it looks like this division belongs to Miami, because even if they lose to Buffalo, which is unlikely, the probability is high that Buffalo will lose two or more remaining games itself. This is subject to change, but Miami currently has the edge.
Atop the West:
- Toledo: 4–0
- Northern Illinois: 3–1
- Central Michigan: 2–2
Between those three:
- Toledo has beaten NIU and has yet to play CMU (A). They also have yet to play Buffalo (H), Eastern Michigan (H), and Bowling Green (A).
- NIU has lost to Toledo and has yet to play CMU (A). They also have yet to play Ball State (H), Western Michigan (H), and Kent State (A).
- CMU has yet to play both Toledo (H) and NIU (H). They also have yet to play Western Michigan (A) and Ohio (A).
If Central Michigan can get itself involved in a tiebreaker here, it’ll almost assuredly win it, because it’ll almost assuredly have beaten both Toledo and NIU. But it’s unlikely that will happen. Most likely, Toledo has the West wrapped up.
Conference USA Football Tiebreakers
We have not yet found a current list of Conference USA tiebreakers for anything other than two-way ties, which will all be decided by head-to-head result.
Conference USA does not have current tiebreakers published, at least from what we’ve found, but they do have Liberty listed as having clinched a spot in the conference championship, and there are places on their website which say two-way ties are decided by head-to-head result, which we believe is currently the case. Similarly, the website confirms our suspicion that Jacksonville State is ineligible for the conference championship while they complete their transition to the FBS level of Division I, though we’ve been unable to confirm whether that decision comes from the conference or from the NCAA (our guess is that it’s the conference, based on what we see in the ASUN’s college basketball tournament).
Given all of that, here’s the rundown:
- Liberty has qualified for the Conference USA Championship, sitting at 6–0 and holding the head-to-head tiebreakers over both New Mexico State and Western Kentucky.
- New Mexico State, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, UTEP, and Middle Tennessee are all theoretically alive for the second conference championship spot, but NMSU (4–1) and WKU (2–2) have the edge over LT (2–3), UTEP (2–3), and MTSU (1–3).
- NMSU and WKU have yet to play. They’ll play on November 11th in Bowling Green.
- NMSU also has yet to play Jacksonville State. They’ll play on November 25th in Las Cruces.
- None of the 3-loss teams have beaten NMSU or WKU. Louisiana Tech has lost to both. UTEP has lost to NMSU. MTSU has lost to WKU. Between the 3-loss teams, Louisiana Tech has beaten UTEP while MTSU has beaten Louisiana Tech. Conference USA is playing a full single round robin this year, so all matchups will eventually have a head-to-head winner.
- In case something changes with Jacksonville State’s eligibility: The Gamecocks have beaten WKU, lost to Liberty, and beaten everyone else except for NMSU and Louisiana Tech, whom they have yet to play.
Overall, it’s looking likely that the championship game’s second participant will be decided by who wins the NMSU/WKU game, though WKU may have to sweep its other three opponents to make that the deciding factor. Of the 3-loss teams, Louisiana Tech is in the worst shape thanks to their losses to both NMSU and WKU. There are still too many games remaining to outline specific scenarios (there are 512 combinations of possible results remaining involving NMSU, WKU, and MTSU alone), but we’ll keep you updated, on Conference USA and the rest of the FBS.
