It’s the final week of college football’s regular season, and the consequences are weighty in a few different ways. There are rivalry games, each carrying their own heft in and of themselves. There are can’t-lose games for playoff contenders, doubling as chances to impress a subjective selection committee. There are can-lose-but-probably-shouldn’t games for other contenders, doubling as opportunities to make a claim for the number one seed.
Here’s what’s going down today, plus what it all means, with help from our model:
Room for Error
Texas A&M @ LSU (LSU wins in 84.9% of our model’s 4,000 simulations)
Ohio State @ Michigan (Ohio State wins in 74.2% of simulations)
Both LSU and Ohio State are probably in, even if they lose today. They’re also probably in if they win today and lose next week, making today a chance to seal things up.
For LSU, the likelihood of making the playoff climbs to 99.1% with a victory. With a loss, it drops to 66.0%.
For Ohio State, a victory pushes their chances to 99.2%, while a loss dips them to 93.7%. Ohio State’s going to the Big Ten Championship regardless, so this is Michigan’s final game before their bowl, but our model does think Michigan still has a 0.2% chance of making the field entering today. If they can pull off the upset at home, that chance multiplies to 0.9%, needing something like a one-in-fifty batch of chaos just to pull close to a realistic shot. A chance is a chance, though.
High Stakes
Georgia @ Georgia Tech (Georgia wins in 98.2% of simulations)
Clemson @ South Carolina (Clemson wins in 92.3% of simulations)
Neither Georgia nor Clemson stands much a chance of losing today. For both, however, even a loss wouldn’t necessarily spell disaster.
In the scenario in which Georgia loses, the biggest risk would be the committee changing course on what’s been a favorable view of the Dawgs, relative to past evaluations of similar résumés. Of course, a victory over LSU next weekend might flip the script again, but the bottom line is that subjectivity is helping Georgia a lot right now, and it’s a flimsy cornerstone for a playoff case, making the Dawgs’ chances dicier than those of their peers. Assuming no subjective changes, Georgia’s chances would drop to 20.5%, implying an SEC championship at 11-2 would push them close to 50/50 odds to make it.
For Clemson, subjectivity has yet to enter the arena. The Tigers have been the obvious choice for the third spot in the rankings for a while now, with a weak schedule (through little fault of their own) but almost solely blowout victories. If they do lose, their fate will come down to not only the results of others, but the opinions of committee members. Assuming they’re treated as history would suggest, a loss moves them to 46.5% likely to make the field. Not too shabby, but nothing like the 95.1% chance they enjoy with a win today.
Elimination Game?
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State (Oklahoma wins in 69.9% of simulations)
Alabama @ Auburn (Alabama wins in 66.1% of simulations)
Oklahoma and Alabama are each in a poor position as a one-loss contender. Oklahoma has the stain of the loss at Kansas State. Alabama has no chance at a twelfth win and conference championship. Each can’t afford to lose, but our model does say each still technically has a chance should they drop the ball today.
For Alabama, that chance—the one of making the field with a 10-2 record—is 0.5%. It relies on a narrow loss and a whole lot of other outcomes, but it’s there. A victory pushes them to 22.5%, independent of other results.
For Oklahoma, the chance of making the playoff with a loss today is 2.3%. Multiple times better than that of the Tide, but still very unlikely. A victory would push the Sooners up to 21.4%, still neck and neck with Alabama, but with one game left to play.
The Sooners’ opponent in that one remaining game would like them to win today too. Baylor’s chances of making the field climb to 4.8% with an Oklahoma triumph in Bedlam, and drop to 4.2% if Oklahoma State upsets big brother.
Elimination Game.
Colorado @ Utah (Utah wins in 95.7% of simulations)
Oregon State @ Oregon (Oregon wins in 91.8% of simulations)
Florida State @ Florida (Florida wins in 91.1% of simulations)
Baylor @ Kansas (Baylor wins in 90.1% of simulations)
Wisconsin @ Minnesota (Wisconsin wins in 54.7% of simulations)
We’ll start with Florida, because their chance is the lowest to begin with, but all six of these “contenders” and contenders (Utah, Oregon, Florida, Baylor, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) see their playoff chances drop to 0.0% with a loss. Florida, of course, has the weakest case, and needs a lot of chaos both today and next weekend to be anywhere near the discussion, but for what it’s worth, the Gators remain at 0.2% likely to make the playoff field if they win, independent of other results.
For Utah, a victory nudges them to 26.0%. They’re the leader among themselves, Oklahoma, and Alabama, but it’s a lead fraught with uncertainty. Utah, more than perhaps anyone else this weekend, needs to win thoroughly.
Utah could also use an Oregon victory to strengthen their potential eventual case. In simulations in which the Ducks win today, Utah makes the playoff 25.0% of the time, compared to 23.2% of the time when Oregon State gets that elusive triumph. For the Ducks themselves, even a win today leaves them only barely alive, just 2.0% likely to make the playoff field.
In similar fashion, Oklahoma and Baylor both benefit if Baylor does the expected and beats Kansas. Oklahoma’s chances are 15.9% with Baylor winning, compared to 13.2% with Baylor losing, independent of their own results. For Baylor, a win keeps them at just 5.1%, but one-in-twenty is better than zero-in-twenty.
Minnesota and Wisconsin might be in a true Round of 16-style game, in which the winner gets the right to play for a shot in the final four. The winner’s playoff path relies on an upset of mighty Ohio State, something hard to quantify in terms of impact. Would it be enough to get Wisconsin in, despite that Illinois loss and a previous defeat in Columbus? Our model at the very least says it’s possible, putting the Badgers 6.2% likely to make the playoff if they win in Minneapolis despite being only 16% or 17% likely to win a hypothetical rematch with Ohio State. For Minnesota, the potential playoff case is stronger, with only one loss, but the chances of beating Ohio State are slightly lower: something like 10%. Still, beating Wisconsin would leave Minnesota 8.9% likely to make the playoff field.
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Obviously, there’s a lot of uncertainty. All these probabilities are elaborately intertwined. Oklahoma wants Alabama and Utah to lose. Georgia would love Clemson to falter. Florida and Michigan want utter mayhem to somehow leave them among those still standing. Oregon would, if nothing else, like to play in the Rose Bowl.
You might like this about college football: The uncertainty. The subjectivity. The chaotic potential. You might hate it, desiring a system more like that of the NFL. Regardless of your preference, today’s a big day. We can’t really put a number on that.
