It’s easy to say, every week, that it’s now the biggest week yet of the college football season. By leverage, it’s often true. With 13 games directly impacting the playoff picture, though, and an additional two immediately indirectly impacting it, today might be bigger than the calendar would suggest. Here’s what’s going down, with insights from our model:
Playoff Favorites Trying to Take Care of Business
Ohio State @ Rutgers (Ohio State wins in 99.9% of our model’s 4,000 simulations)
Wake Forest @ Clemson (Clemson wins in 97.4% of simulations)
LSU @ Mississippi (LSU wins in 93.7% of simulations)
Nothing to see here—these teams hope. None of the three teams our model says are more likely than not to make the playoff play difficult competition this weekend. LSU’s the most likely to have trouble, and that’s not particularly likely.
Playoff Contenders Trying to Stay Alive
Arizona @ Oregon (Oregon wins in 95.7% of simulations)
UCLA @ Utah (Utah wins in 90.8% of simulations)
Alabama @ Mississippi State (Alabama wins in 90.3% of simulations)
Indiana @ Penn State (Penn State wins in 86.4% of simulations)
Penn State likely controls its fate. Utah and Oregon most likely control their respective fates. Alabama needs some help, but is a clear next team in. Penn State faces the biggest challenge, dealing with an Indiana team our model believes is just outside the top 25, but with the game in Happy Valley, the Nittany Lions are a sizable favorite like their compatriots here.
Still, between this section and the last section, there’s about a 32% chance one of these seven games doesn’t go according to script. That’s not likely, but it’s not extremely unlikely.
Playoff Dreamers Trying Not to Wake Up
Wisconsin @ Nebraska (Wisconsin wins in 86.1% of simulations)
Michigan State @ Michigan (Michigan wins in 82.8% of simulations)
Florida @ Missouri (Florida wins in 74.5% of simulations)
Each of these three teams needs significant help just to make their conference championship game. Even so, our model has each between one and four percent likely to be chosen for the playoff field. That’s, of course, very unlikely, but it’s enough to keep us tuned in.
Games of Secondhand Importance
West Virginia @ Kansas State (Kansas State wins in 87.3% of simulations)
South Carolina @ Texas A&M (South Carolina wins in 24.8% of simulations)
Oklahoma’s hopes are still highly tied to K-State’s success. In simulations in which West Virginia upsets the Wildcats, Oklahoma only makes the playoff 12.8% of the time, compared to 18.0% of the time when K-State wins.
Georgia’s playoff chances are similarly tied to South Carolina, but because it’s unlikely the SEC champion is left out, and because Georgia’s primary path to a berth involves winning the SEC, the leverage isn’t as high. In simulations in which South Carolina manages to beat Texas A&M, Georgia makes the playoff 35.3% of the time, compared to in 32.5% of the simulations in which South Carolina loses today.
The Exceptionally Big Games
Oklahoma @ Baylor (Oklahoma wins in 64.9% of simulations)
Georgia @ Auburn (Georgia wins in 51.2% of simulations)
Minnesota @ Iowa (Minnesota wins in 44.6% of simulations)
All these games are big, but some are bigger than others.
For Oklahoma, a win is worth a climb to a projected 23.1% playoff likelihood, while a loss knocks that chance down to 6.8%. For Baylor, a victory keeps the narrow hopes alive at 5.3%, a number that could rise if their FPA is substantially erased (more on FPA here), as Minnesota’s was last week; while a Bears loss drops the probability to 0.1%.
For Georgia, the difference between winning and losing is one between being 44.9% likely to make the playoff and being 21.0% likely to make it. Given that Georgia’s riding the largest FPA in the country, and that’s a variable that, because it’s largely subjective, should theoretically flip fairly quickly, that 21.0% might be an overstatement. Auburn, meanwhile, could bolster their hopes to a narrow, but real, 2.3% with a victory. The Tigers would need a lot of chaos to unfold to become a real playoff contender, but they’re not dead just yet—unless they lose today.
Finally, for Minnesota, beating Iowa would nearly lock them into a Big Ten West Division title. Their playoff probability would rise to 7.8%. Losing, while still leaving the door open for a conference title and very possible playoff trip, would leave the Gophers just 1.0% likely to make the field.
