After a few weeks in the doldrums, there’s wind in college football’s sails. Between the release of the season’s first meaningful rankings, LSU’s trip to Tuscaloosa, and an undefeated showdown up north, there’s plenty at stake. Here’s how the weekend’s thirteen biggest games will impact the playoff picture, with insights from our model:
Taking Care of Business
Maryland @ Ohio State (Ohio State wins in 99.6% of simulations)
Clemson @ North Carolina State (Clemson wins in 97.7% of simulations)
Ohio State will host Maryland without the help of Chase Young, the Buckeye defensive end who happens to be arguably the best player in the country. Young is suspended for what sounds like a minor violation of a puzzling NCAA rule (last year, he reportedly received a loan from a family friend who is neither an agent nor a booster). Ohio State should still roll through the Terrapins, but any perceived defensive vulnerability may be held against them should Young’s suspension last longer than a week or two.
The last time Clemson visited the Tarheel State, the Tarheels nearly torpedoed their playoff chances. They’ll get N.C. State instead this weekend, and it doesn’t figure to be too troublesome an affair.
Staying Alive
Missouri @ Georgia (Georgia wins in 88.0% of simulations)
Iowa State @ Oklahoma (Oklahoma wins in 80.9% of simulations)
Baylor @ TCU (Baylor wins in 53.2% of simulations)
While Georgia got a major boost from the first playoff rankings, their playoff hopes are still slim, just 12.5%. Lose again, and the committee’s goodwill may vanish, but at that point, goodwill wouldn’t make the difference anyway.
Oklahoma’s chances are likewise sparse, checking in at 9.7%. The Sooners, like the Dawgs, can’t afford to take another loss this weekend.
Baylor does not have a defeat on its résumé, but through a combination of our model expecting them to lose two or more times before the playoff selections and the committee punishing them seemingly for their weak non-conference schedule, their playoff likelihood is minute compared to those of Georgia and Oklahoma. 0.9%. Not good. A win, of course, would increase that number, presumably by a factor of nearly 100%, given that our model views the Bears’ trip to Fort Worth as roughly a tossup.
Staying “Alive”
Vanderbilt @ Florida (Florida wins in 98.0% of simulations)
Iowa @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin wins in 72.5% of simulations)
Florida and Wisconsin are each technically more likely to make the playoff than Baylor. They also need a lot more help than the Bears do. Florida needs Georgia to drop two of their three remaining conference games, which come at home against Mizzou and Texas A&M and on the road at Auburn. Wisconsin needs all but three other contenders to disintegrate.
Still, since our model has both the Gators and the Badgers as more likely to make the playoff than Baylor or Minnesota, we had to mention them. Also, Iowa at Wisconsin figures to be a good game independent of its playoff impactfulness.
Secondhand Importance
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech (Wake Forest wins in 57.2% of simulations)
Appalachian State @ South Carolina (South Carolina wins in 55.7% of simulations)
USC @ Arizona State (USC wins in 53.4% of simulations)
Kansas State @ Texas (Kansas State wins in 40.9% of simulations)
Wake Forest, South Carolina, USC, and Kansas State are all not going to make the playoff. Wake Forest and K-State are each one-in-one-thousand longshots, and USC and South Carolina are just trying to make a bowl game. Yet, all four of these teams’ success is directly tied to a past or future opponent’s playoff chances.
The connection is weakest between Wake Forest and Clemson. Since Clemson plays the Deacs at home, our model doesn’t expect the Tigers to rely on Wake as one of their two best wins of the year (which are a direct factor in its calculation). For the time being, though, Wake Forest is the only ranked opponent on Clemson’s schedule. So, while the ACC is so bad that Clemson’s playoff chances are pretty much entirely contingent upon winning out, Wake Forest winning or losing could impact Clemson’s seeding, which in turn could affect their championship chances. As it stands, Clemson’s playoff probability rounds to 79% no matter which way things go in Blacksburg tomorrow.
If South Carolina loses tomorrow, they’re all but assured of bowl ineligibility. This would bode poorly for Georgia, who as we’ve covered is currently being given a good deal of forgiveness for the home loss to the Cocks. It isn’t make-or-break for Georgia that South Carolina wins this game, but their playoff chances do rise to 13.5% with a Gamecocks victory and drop to 11.2% should South Carolina lose.
Utah has the most at stake in a prior opponent’s performance, as their loss to USC could look much worse if the Trojans fall apart over a final stretch that follows this weekend with a trip to Berkeley and a crosstown matchup with UCLA. With a USC win, Utah’s playoff chances sit at 10.0%. With a loss, they’re a quarter worse, at 7.6%.
Finally, Oklahoma could really use some more wins from Kansas State. In simulations in which K-State beats Texas, the Sooners make the playoff 10.3% of the time. When the Longhorns do what their archrivals could not, that probability is 9.3%. It might not look like a lot, but a tenth of the prior probability is meaningful.
Really Effin’ Big Games
Penn State @ Minnesota (Penn State wins in 68.0% of simulations)
LSU @ Alabama (Alabama wins in 72.0% of simulations)
Minnesota seemed to provoke a laugh from the committee this week, coming in so far from the top five that our model now gives the Gophers only a 0.3% playoff probability. It doesn’t help that Minnesota is favored to win only one of their remaining four regular season games. But with two of those expected losses (at Iowa, home against Wisconsin) split decisions among the rating systems our model uses, and the reality that virtually any method in which Minnesota could beat Penn State would elevate them in everyone’s eyes, including those of those ratings, this is an enormous opportunity for the Gophers to legitimately climb into the race.
On Penn State’s side of things, a loss would be devastating. Our model has the Nittany Lions 52.2% likely to make their first playoff appearance, but only 15.4% likely to win the Big Ten. This means our model thinks more than fewer of Penn State’s chances rely on a narrow loss to Ohio State and meltdowns elsewhere than actually winning out. With a win, the Penn State playoff probability climbs to 68.6%. With a loss, it’s down to 17.6%.
Down south, in what’s become the most anticipated annual regular season matchup in college football, Alabama has more to lose than their visitors, LSU. This is partially because losing at home is worse than losing on the road. It’s mostly because LSU played Florida and Texas while Alabama played Duke and South Carolina.
Even with a loss, LSU is viewed by our model as 50.5% likely to make the playoff. With a win, though, that number climbs to 80.5%, the second highest in the country. For Alabama, a loss pushes their probability down to 39.0%, while a win lifts it to 81.0%.
Both rivals, like Penn State, have a reasonable chance of being chosen for the playoff as an 11-1 division runner-up. For LSU, that chance is better than it is for Alabama.
