Another week of college football is upon us. Technically, it began last night, but Memphis hasn’t made a large enough space for themselves yet in the national picture for them to be worth pumping this out a day early. That may change. But it would take some chaos.
After a week with three legitimate big games, we’re down to zero this week. That isn’t to say you shouldn’t tune in—that’s up to you—and it isn’t to say that the week will be meaningless. No week is meaningless in college football. Some weeks just aren’t obviously meaningful upon entering. This could be a week that surprises us. It also might be fairly boring. We’ll see.
Here’s what’s going down, with some insights from our model:
Games That Shouldn’t Be Big Games
Each week, we at least keep eyes on what the contenders are doing, and on what the current Group of Five favorites are up to.
Mississippi @ Alabama (Alabama wins in 98.3% of simulations)
How Mississippi has fallen. It evidently isn’t nationally evident yet, given how much credit Cal’s gotten for winning in Oxford last week, but the Rebels are bad by SEC standards. And by some other standards as well. The ratings our model uses has Mississippi as the fourth-worst team in the conference, better than only Tennessee, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt. Nationally, they slot in between Fresno State and Louisiana-Lafayette. In other words, what was a difficult annual game for Alabama half a decade ago is now just one more tune-up.
Clemson @ North Carolina (Clemson wins in 96.3% of simulations)
Clemson can probably afford one loss, given their reputation and how they appear poised to walk right through the ACC. But even so, they neither want to lose this one nor seem likely to lose this one. North Carolina falls right around the middle of the ACC in the ratings. Which says something negative about the state of the ACC beyond Clemson.
Northwestern @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin wins in 95.2% of simulations)
Wisconsin could be heading into a trap game against a notoriously feisty Northwestern program. But the Badgers are at home, and this appears to be one of the worse Northwestern teams in recent memory. They rate out below Purdue on the ledger.
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma (Oklahoma wins in 92.3% of simulations)
There isn’t much reason to believe Texas Tech is a threat in the Big 12 in Matt Wells’ first year. Their only notable contest has been a 28-14 loss at Arizona two weeks ago, and our model has them as the third-least likely team to win the Big 12 (ahead of only West Virginia and Kansas). But if 2017 Iowa State’s win in Norman is any indicator, the Sooners should always be on guard.
Ohio State @ Nebraska (Ohio State wins in 89.1% of simulations)
It’s a big moment for Nebraska football, hosting College Gameday and all. But also, the Huskers are less likely than even Minnesota to win the Big Ten this year. The takeaway here is that while this weekend represents a step forward, Nebraska’s probably more than a step away. With that being said, it figures to be a great atmosphere—at least for the first half—and it’s worth noting here that statistically, there’s about a 36% chance one of the favorites in this section loses.
Coastal Carolina @ Appalachian State (Appalachian State wins in 86.9% of simulations)
Appalachian State is a ways from being playoff-relevant, but it could feasibly happen. They made the field in three of our 1,000 simulations this week, which is virtually zero, but puts them on our radar. If college football is lacking for good stories come November and these guys are undefeated, you’ll hear about them. You’ll also hear about them if they end up representing the Group of Five in a New Year’s Six bowl.
Games That Could Be Big Games
There are no games this week we know are big. But looking back on the season in December, we may realize some of these were.
Virginia @ Notre Dame (Notre Dame wins in 84.7% of simulations)
Our model is not sold on Virginia, because the ratings aren’t sold on Virginia. Some of this could be the product of Virginia’s struggles last year carrying over into the ratings’ math. Some of it is that the Cavaliers trailed Old Dominion entering last week’s fourth quarter. Regardless, there’s a relative consensus that they’re the favorite in the Coastal Division, and they don’t play Clemson in the regular season, meaning this game and the one at Miami in two weeks are the only contests in which they, as of now, look like the underdog. Winning ten games as a Power Five team will keep you in the public eye.
Notre Dame has to regroup after a tough loss at Georgia in which both teams, to some degree, underwhelmed. A lot of Notre Dame’s problems on offense seemed related to crowd noise, which won’t be an issue at home (editor’s note: that isn’t a shot at Notre Dame home crowds, but had it been, it would have been a fair one). If Brian Kelly’s team can take care of business against UVA, Irish fans should also become Virginia fans.
Mississippi State @ Auburn (Auburn wins in 73.3% of simulations)
How’s this for a nightmare scenario for the SEC? Mississippi State beats Auburn on the road, the two wind up tied for the SEC West title, and a two-loss team from Starkville ends up winning the conference with a non-conference home loss to a Big 12 also-ran on its résumé.
It isn’t likely: Mississippi State wins the conference in just 1.5% of even the simulations in which they win this week. But that loss to Kansas State could, theoretically, be a thorn in the SEC’s side.
More intriguingly, Auburn just beat Texas A&M on the road by eight. The Tigers have one of the best résumés so far in the country, if not the best, given they also have that neutral-site win over Oregon. Alabama is deservedly the SEC favorite, and Auburn’s got a hellacious schedule ahead of them, traveling to Florida and LSU while hosting Georgia and Alabama. But keep an eye on them, because they could quickly become a factor.
USC @ Washington (Washington wins in 72.4% of simulations)
Two of the Pac-12’s many wounded squads match up in what could conceivably be a conference championship preview, and Washington needs it worse than USC, with a home conference loss already on their back and a date with conference favorite Oregon yet to come. With a win, Washington’s Pac-12 title hopes edge upwards from 19.9% to 24.3%. With a loss, they drop to 8.3%. For USC, a win pushes them from 16.1% to 24.6%, and a loss knocks them back to 12.3%.
SMU @ USF (SMU wins in 70.6% of simulations)
This one probably won’t go on to matter. SMU’s got only a 6.5% chance of winning the American. But their road win at TCU and an upcoming road game against Memphis, in addition to a conference championship game that would probably be against UCF, have all combined to give the Mustangs a viable path to at least notch a few top-25 wins, should things break the right way. SMU made the playoff in exactly one of the thousand simulations this week. It could have been the flukiest of flukes, but at the very least, it means the path exists. We’ll keep an eye on them.
Penn State @ Maryland (Penn State wins in 67.6% of simulations)
Penn State got a little boost from Pitt beating UCF in that it helped Penn State’s own struggles against the Panthers look better. They’re still clearly behind Ohio State and Wisconsin in the Big Ten picture, but their 7.2% Big Ten title likelihood isn’t nothing, and neither is their 9.0% playoff chance.
Washington State @ Utah (Utah wins in 61.8% of simulations)
For the last time (with Utah—I’ll say it again with Cal, both this week and possibly next week), being undefeated doesn’t make a team the Pac-12’s best playoff hope. Yes, Utah entered last week with no losses. No, they weren’t more likely than Oregon to make the field. And regardless, the numbers on Pac-12 teams are so low right now (Notre Dame has a better chance of making the field than the entire Pac-12 put together, and the Pac-12’s chance of sending one team to the field is equal to the chance another league sends three) that it’s silly to consider any of them playoff contenders.
With that said, both these teams would love to win the Pac-12, and this game matters in their respective pursuits of that goal. A second conference loss for Utah wouldn’t end their world—they’d still be 7.3% likely to win the conference. But that number’s higher when USC loses to Washington this week, which isn’t a guarantee. Utah needs a win.
Washington State is almost already dead, since their loss came to UCLA, but another stumble would deepen their hole from 2.0% to 0.8%, while a win would nearly double their chances up to 3.9%. A longshot, but at least not too far from the picture.
Kansas State @ Oklahoma State (Oklahoma State wins in 61.0% of simulations)
The Pokes are trying to bounce back from a hard-fought loss at Texas. Kansas State’s looking to continue their unbeaten start to the Chris Klieman era. Both teams are looking to separate themselves from the pack and claim the third spot in the Big 12, from which they could jump into the title game with a Texas or Oklahoma slip-up. K-State, obviously, has more control over their fate.
If Oklahoma State wins, their Big 12 championship chances rise from 3.8% to 5.2%. With a loss, down they go to 1.5%. For Kansas State, it’s a jump from 5.0% to 9.5% with a win, and a drop to 2.1% with a loss. Those shifts aren’t inconsequential.
Arizona State @ Cal (Cal wins in 55.3% of simulations)
Our model is not sold on Cal, as you may have already gathered. The win at Washington was impressive and winning at Mississippi is better than losing at Mississippi. But their other results (home wins over UC-Davis by fourteen and North Texas by six) aren’t great. The ratings have them just behind Wake Forest, and that’s probably fair.
They haven’t lost, and that’s an achievement. But they’re still less likely to win the Pac-12 than the Washington State team that just managed to lose at home to UCLA. If they win both this week and at Oregon next week, then yes, they’ll be important. But until then, don’t let the shiny number fool you.
Iowa State @ Baylor (Iowa State wins in 51.6% of simulations)
This is effectively the kids table equivalent to the Oklahoma State/Kansas State game. It will put one team in a virtually hopeless place, propel the other closer to the action in the Big 12, and in the end most likely not really matter in the grand scheme of things.
But Baylor hasn’t lost yet, and Iowa State’s loss was a non-conference one to a fringe playoff contender, so there’s that small chance it will matter. Which can be said of all of these (and that Florida/Towson game we decided to almost ignore).
