College Football’s Week 4 began last night, with Tulane beating Houston in a thrilling game of little national importance. Tonight, three contests follow, and tomorrow, the slate is full.
It is, to date, the biggest week of the season, and not just in an “every week is the biggest week” sense. There are three legitimate big, playoff-impacting games, and the supporting cast is strong. Here are the ones to watch, or at least to keep an eye on, along with how often each team wins in our model’s 1,000 simulations, and how our model expects the game to impact any relevant conference, playoff, and national championship races.
Games that shouldn’t be important:
Southern Miss @ Alabama (Alabama wins in 99.7% of
simulations)
Miami (Ohio) @ Ohio State (Ohio State wins in 99.2% of simulations)
LSU @ Vanderbilt (LSU wins in 94.0% of simulations)
Charlotte @ Clemson (Clemson wins in 100.0% of simulations)
Four of our five most likely national champions have easy tasks ahead of them this weekend. LSU has the toughest, traveling to Nashville to face Vanderbilt, but the Commodores aren’t as good this year as they’ve been in past seasons. And they haven’t been good in past seasons.
Games that might be important:
Appalachian State @ North Carolina (Appalachian State wins in 50.4% of simulations)
Throughout our simulations, Appalachian State has consistently been the third Group of Five team in order of likelihood of national attention, trailing UCF and Boise State. The Mountaineers have cracked the playoff field now and then in our sim’s, but it’s been rare. Still, they’re a fringe top 25-caliber team, and given the ubiquity of mediocrity in the ACC, it’s possible UNC could turn into a top 25 win before the year’s over.
Air Force @ Boise State (Boise State wins in 77.2% of simulations)
With Air Force one of a few potential challengers for Boise State in the Mountain West, this game has conference title implications. If our servicemen win, their Mountain West championship probability rises from 5.9% to 14.3%. If they lose, it drops to a relatively hopeless 1.9%.
For Boise State, it’s imperative to win by a lot, given that in addition to chaos, they’ll likely need a favorable glance from the eye test to make the playoff committee’s top four. In terms of more realistic expectations, it’s imperative only to win, something that would boost their conference title chances from 44.4% to 49.2%. A loss would plunge those hopes to 28.1%.
Tennessee @ Florida (Florida wins in 90.5% of simulations)
Tennessee doesn’t figure to pose a threat to Florida, but we’ve seen strange things out of the Gators in recent years. Florida’s a team our model thinks is very good but very much in the same division as Georgia—in other words, a team with a championship path, but a difficult one. They don’t literally have to win to have a shot at winning the SEC, but if they lose, they’ll be rightly counted out.
UCF @ Pitt (UCF wins in 73.1% of simulations)
Next up on UCF’s two-week Power Five slate is Pittsburgh, a team notorious for being a real pain to playoff hopefuls. UCF, as we wrote this week, might not have a viable playoff path in this universe. If they do, though, it likely includes winning by more than a score at Pitt (I’ll leave it up to you to decide whether that means eight or twenty).
Washington @ BYU (Washington wins in 71.9% of simulations)
Washington’s debacle of a start (an inexcusable loss to Cal) aside, the Huskies might be good. If they are, there are things to be salvaged from this season. Tomorrow’s non-conference date with BYU won’t impact their Pac-12 title hopes, but even if they don’t win the conference, another appearance in a New Year’s Six bowl would help solidify the program’s standing as a regular member of college football’s top dozen teams. That’s no small prize, and grabbing it almost definitely requires a victory in Provo.
Oregon @ Stanford (Oregon wins in 68.7% of simulations)
Stanford is scuffling, but still poses a threat to Oregon, who needs to win the Pac-12 to have any shot of making the playoff field. By beating Stanford, the Ducks can raise their conference championship chances from 31.9% to 36.0%. With a loss, they’d drop to 23.0%, a point at which they’d probably no longer be the favorite.
Games that are important:
Utah @ USC (Utah wins in 50.3% of simulations)
The Pac-12 South’s two best teams are meeting early in the year, in a Friday night matchup that could go on to decide the division. To add some weight, Utah, though not the Pac-12 favorite, is argued by some to be the Pac-12’s best playoff hope, given Oregon’s opening-weekend loss to Auburn (our model still thinks Oregon is more likely than Utah to make the playoff field, even with one more loss than their conference foe).
With a win, Utah’s Pac-12 title chances climb from 25.5% to 34.2%, and their playoff chances rise from 1.8% to 3.2%. With a loss, they drop to 16.7% and 0.4%, respectively. USC, whose sole loss was a non-conference slip-up at BYU, would see their conference title hopes nearly double with a win, from 11.9% to 20.1%. With a loss, they’d drop all the way to 3.8%.
Oklahoma State @ Texas (Texas wins in 60.4% of simulations)
Much like the Utah/USC game, this weekend’s matchup in Austin might serve as a conference semifinal. Texas and Oklahoma State are the second and third most likely teams, respectively, to win the Big 12, with Oklahoma a decided favorite. A win for the Longhorns pushes their likelihood from 14.6% to 18.5%. A loss knocks them down to 8.6%. For the Pokes, a win means a rise from 8.7% to 12.9%, with a loss dropping their hopes to 6.0%.
Games that are really important:
These are the weekend’s big three:
Auburn @ Texas A&M (Auburn wins in 48.5% of simulations)
Auburn has a strong non-conference win—the one over Oregon. Texas A&M has a respectable non-conference loss—to Clemson. With LSU and Alabama also in the SEC West, neither has a great shot at the conference title (1.2% for Auburn, 1.4% for Texas A&M). But for the same reason, each has a decent playoff shot, at least in the context of playoff chances as a category (4.7% for Auburn, 1.7% for Texas A&M).
Bo Nix’s Week One heroics (and cool name) aside, both these teams rely on their defense for much of their success. The Aggies’ held Trevor Lawrence to 268 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Bill Connelly’s SP+ ranks Auburn’s the fourth best in the country. Were the game on the Plains, Auburn would be favored by a few. Instead, it’s in College Station, with A&M narrowly expected to triumph. LSU and Alabama loom for each. Winning this one gives those a chance to mean something.
Michigan @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin wins in 67.6% of simulations)
It’s not October, Michigan hasn’t lost, and already their season feels to be on the ropes. Their offense struggled mightily against Army, and while SP+ rates their defense the best in the country, their offense struggled mightily against Army.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, has thoroughly dominated their pair of tune-ups. It’s tempting to make too much of wins over inferior foes, but the yards per play the Badgers have been managing on both sides of the ball (in addition to their 110 to zero cumulative point differential) is impressive.
Our model thinks Wisconsin’s the better team, and the fact they’re playing at home pushes them even higher. A win boosts their playoff likelihood from 21.2% to 26.5%, and their Big Ten title chances from 23.3% to 27.4%. But Michigan’s defense is great, and Jim Harbaugh’s had a bye week to get things together in Ann Arbor. Should the Wolverines triumph, they’ll push their own playoff chances from 3.5% to 7.4% and drop the Badgers’ to 10.2%. They’ll also drive their Big Ten championship hopes from 5.2% to 10.2%, while knocking the Badgers’ back to 14.8% (a loss for Michigan would drop their playoff chances to 1.6% and their Big Ten chances to 2.8%).
Notre Dame @ Georgia (Georgia wins in 72.7% of simulations)
Notre Dame and Georgia have each come a long way from when they last met in 2017. Notre Dame won ten games that year, twelve the next, and made their first playoff appearance. Georgia narrowly missed a national championship that year and came within a few plays of earning their second playoff berth in the sequel.
But while the teams have grown, Georgia—as the results show—has grown faster. Notre Dame is a sizable underdog in this one. While their offense has shown signs of improvement over last year’s, their defense—which was strong in 2018, but thin, as displayed when Julian Love went down in the Cotton Bowl and Clemson began scoring at will—looks worse. SP+ has it as only the 29th-best in the country, and their yards per play number is worse—46th, despite playing Louisville and New Mexico in the season’s first two weeks.
If Georgia wins, its national championship hopes rise from 7.7% to 9.4%. Its playoff chances rise from 29.3% to 41.3%. Notre Dame’s drop from 1.4% to 0.8%, and from 19.5% to 13.9%.
But should the Irish pull off the upset, they’ll have the best win to date in the country, and their playoff probability will reflect that, jumping to 34.4%. Their championship hopes will climb to 2.9%. And Georgia’s, in turn, will drop to 18.7% and 3.3% respectively.
