The Cubs made moves yesterday.
Specifically, Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and Tom Ricketts made moves (yes, I’m including Ricketts, because he opened the pocketbook for Castellanos and the Cubs now have a payroll even higher into the stratosphere).
Here’s what they got:
For Martín Maldonado, they brought back Tony Kemp.
Kemp had been designated for assignment, but being designated for assignment by the Astros doesn’t mean you’re bad. At this point, their roster spots seem to be reserved almost exclusively for future hall-of-famers. So don’t read too much into the DFA.
Instead, look at Kemp’s wRC+ so far this year: 93. Seven percent poorer than the average MLB hitter, but better than that of Albert Almora Jr., Maldonado, Addison Russell, small-sample-size Robel Garcia, and small-sample-size Ian Happ (as well as Daniel Descalso, but that needs no mention). In other words, Kemp is a serviceable bench bat, and given he posted a 110 wRC+ in 2018, he might be a very serviceable bench bat.
Defensively, Kemp is also serviceable. His UZR/150 numbers are all over the place because, shifting between second base and the outfield, he’s accumulated a lot of small samples at different positions, but over his career, he’s been a teensy bit above-average in the outfield, and a small bit below-average at second base. He doesn’t look to provide much defensive strength beyond versatility (of which the Cubs have an abundance), but he’s not going to be a liability when he’s in there.
In total, Kemp’s probably (*knocking on wood to appease the injury fates*) more valuable to the Cubs than Maldonado would have been over these next two to three months.
For Carl Edwards Jr., they brought the Iowa Cubs Brad Wieck.
Personally, I’m sad to see Edwards go. You can only guess at how good a person a player is, but Edwards gave no reason to doubt his character. He was full of promise for such a long while, and he was having a great 2018 until his control abandoned him down the stretch. In 2019, he couldn’t put things together, and hopefully the San Diego system is somewhere he can do that.
Wieck isn’t anything special yet. And he might never be. On his MLB career, he’s got a 4.85 FIP over just more than 30 innings. He’s 6’9”, but he doesn’t throw obscenely hard if you’re hoping for that. He does throw left-handed, and he had a very good 2018 across AA, AAA, and the MLB, with FIP’s below three at all three levels.
He might never throw a pitch for the Cubs, but he’s got upside.
For Alex Lange and Paul Richan, they brought back Nicholas Castellanos.
Richan, a 22-year-old starter, was having a good season at high-A prior to the trade, with a 3.52 FIP. He was the 78th overall pick in the 2018 draft, but FanGraphs never viewed him as strong enough to be in the numerically-ranked echelon of Cubs prospects (which, prior to this season, was a 31-man list).
Lange, prior to the trade, was the 19th-ranked prospect in the Cubs system, according to FanGraphs. His FIP’s around 4.50 across high-A and AA this year, which isn’t bad at all, but is far from sensational. He was a first-round pick back in 2017, when the Cubs picked 30th because they’d just won the World Series.
Castellanos has been discussed on this website before. The gist of that conversation was that Castellanos might make the Cubs as much as a win better over these last two months, but he also might prove only a marginal upgrade. The biggest unknown variable is not Castellanos, but instead Jason Heyward’s defense in center field. If Heyward plays well defensively, the arrangement will be great for the Cubs. If he doesn’t, it still might appear great, because subtly poorer defense is, by definition, more difficult to notice than an uptick in offense.
Castellanos figures to provide that offensive uptick. He’s at a 106 wRC+ on the year after posting 119, 112, and 130 in the same metric over 2016, ’17, and ’18 respectively. Not earth-shaking, but an upgrade over Almora, who at this point is best-suited for a defensive replacement role.
Robel Garcia is the odd man out, sent back to Des Moines after posting a 91 wRC+ in 63 plate appearances. Garcia will presumably be back when rosters expand, at which point he might again get playing time, but for now, he’ll get the chance to heat back up against AAA pitching.
Garcia won’t be the only one with a reduced role, though. Almora and Kyle Schwarber each figure to see a reduction in innings, and David Bote might as well, with Kris Bryant spending more time in the infield and Tony Kemp a comparable option to Bote at second base. Castellanos himself might not play every single day, but for now, expect him to be in the lineup many more days than not.
As far as the lineup goes, things will be as malleable as ever, but Castellanos might spend some time in the leadoff spot, especially against lefties. With a higher ISO and lower OBP than Heyward, he fits better in the six-hole against right-handers, starting things back off again after the Bryant/Rizzo/Contreras/Báez brigade.
***
Overall, the Cubs made moves over the month of July to add options to their bullpen while bettering their bench and their starting lineup. They figure to get Cole Hamels back within the next turn through the rotation, which should re-solidify an already good group of starting pitchers (*more knocking on wood*).
The bullpen is still a large question mark. It ranks just 18th in FIP at 4.61, and neither David Phelps (4.78) nor Derek Holland (5.99) have a number to date in that metric that would improve the group’s total (though Holland’s would improve were he excused from pitching to right-handed batters). But if Craig Kimbrel figures things out, that position group looks a lot better, especially as Kyle Ryan, Brandon Kintzler, and Rowan Wick’s respective roles seem to be increasing. It’s also worth remembering that if all five starters enter the playoffs healthy, one or more will be a relief option, and all with the exception of Yu Darvish have better FIP’s than the bullpen (for now—Darvish appears to be racing to change that).
In other words, the Cubs still have liabilities. Specifically, they have a bullpen liability. But they’ve got the ninth-best rotation in the MLB (by fWAR) even with Darvish’s first-half struggles and Hamels’ month-long absence. They’ve got the eleventh-best offense by wRC+, third-best in the NL (where pitchers bring everyone’s number down), even with nearly 700 plate appearances going to non-pitchers with wRC+’s of 70 or below. And defensively, according to FanGraphs, they’re in the top ten.
Things aren’t perfect. The Cardinals and Brewers are both viable contenders with bullpens that help them outperform their run differentials. If the Cubs can win the Central, they’re still five games back of the Braves for home field advantage in the NLDS. The Dodgers are clearly better than them. At least two and possibly as many as seven teams in the American League are better than them. FanGraphs has them at a 21.4% likelihood of missing the playoffs altogether.
But FanGraphs also has them with a 6.6% chance of winning the World Series, sixth-best in the MLB. Things could be much worse.
