College football’s Week Nine kicked off last night, with SMU holding off Houston to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Our model only measured the Mustangs as 0.1% likely to make the playoff field entering the week, and while the win might push that up a bit, even a boatload of chaos wouldn’t really put them in the race. Still, yes, Lloyd, we’re saying there’s a chance.
Here’s what’s left on the slate for the weekend, with insights from our model:
The Other SMU
Appalachian State @ South Alabama (Appalachian State wins in 96.7% of our model’s 4,000 simulations)
The consolation prize for SMU, if everything goes well, is making a New Year’s Six bowl as the Group of Five’s highest-ranked team. Their main competition for that bid, at this point anyway, is Cincinnati, who lost by 42 to Ohio State but is the AAC favorite; and Appalachian State, who leads the Sun Belt, has a win over UNC under their belt, and has yet to play South Carolina. The Mountaineers are heavy favorites this weekend against the Sun Belt’s cellar-dweller, so expect little to change among the Group of Five teams jockeying to be first in line should enough crumbs of chaos fall from the Power Five table.
Teams Trying to Stay Alive
Maryland @ Minnesota (Minnesota wins in 83.0% of our
simulations)
Cal @ Utah (Utah wins in 89.1% of our simulations)
Washington State @ Oregon (Oregon wins in 79.8% of our simulations)
Minnesota, Utah, and Oregon are on the fringes of playoff contention. Were Utah or Oregon to win out, they’d be in the conversation as a 12-1 Pac-12 champion. Were Minnesota to win out, they’d be in the playoff as a 13-0 Big Ten champion. The Utes and Ducks are on a collision course. The Gophers’ schedule turns up a notch in two weeks when Penn State comes to town and includes contests with Iowa and Wisconsin over the home stretch. In other words, all these teams have a chance to make the playoff. None has a very good one.
Teams Trying to Take Care of Business
Oklahoma @ Kansas State (Oklahoma wins in 87.8% of
simulations)
Penn State @ Michigan State (Penn State wins in 69.8% of simulations)
Boston College @ Clemson (Clemson wins in 97.9% of simulations)
Arkansas @ Alabama (Alabama wins in 99.4% of simulations)
Clemson and Alabama, along with Ohio State, who we’ll get to, are the playoff favorites. Each is at least 70% likely to make the field. Oklahoma and Penn State, along with LSU, who we’ll get to, comprise the next tier, all at or above a 35% playoff likelihood.
For Clemson and Alabama, these games project to just be tune-ups. If either loses, of course, it will be disastrous—especially for Clemson, who doesn’t project to have any opportunities at good wins down the stretch—but neither should lose.
For Oklahoma and Penn State, things are riskier. Each is on the road against a respectable opponent. The aggregate ratings our model employs have Kansas State as the 40th-best team in the FBS. They have Michigan State at 25th. The stakes are high. In simulations in which Oklahoma wins, their playoff probability rises to 50.0%. When they lose, it drops to 17.4%. For Penn State, those numbers are 45.5% and 10.4% for a win and a loss respectively.
Fans of the Big 12 and Big Ten as entities should be watching this closely as well. As it stands, the probability of any Big 12 team making the playoff is about a coin toss. If Oklahoma wins, that chance climbs slightly, from 48.5% to 52.6%. But if the Sooners lose, it drops to a worrisome 19.3%. For the Big Ten, the question isn’t so much whether any of their teams will make the playoff, but whether they can get two in the field.
The easiest scenario to conceptualize in which the Big Ten sends multiple teams goes as follows: Ohio State or Penn State goes 11-1, losing only to the other. The other goes 13-0, winning the Big Ten. Oklahoma stumbles. LSU or Alabama loses once more beyond losing to the other. It might sound narrow, but when factoring in the myriad additional chaotic scenarios that could lead to such a happening, it’s a significant possibility. If Penn State wins tomorrow, the Big Ten’s shot at two playoff teams rises to 42.2%. If the Nittany Lions lose, it’s down to 12.0%.
Big Games
Instead of listing these games in the order they’re happening, as we did in the other sections, we’re addressing them in increasing order of impactfulness.
Notre Dame @ Michigan (Notre Dame wins in 51.8% of simulations)
Notre Dame’s playoff hopes are thin. Michigan’s are microscopic. But with an Irish win, Notre Dame climbs to 6.7% likely to make the field, and with a Wolverines triumph, Michigan inches up to 0.7%. Similarly to SMU and Appalachian State’s situations, the bigger hope here is a New Year’s Six bowl. Using playoff probability as a proxy (this isn’t a perfect way to do it, but at this point, it’s reasonable), Notre Dame currently lines up one spot out of New Year’s Six territory (Were the playoffs to include Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, and Oklahoma, and the current probabilities to match the final CFP rankings, Penn State would play Oregon in the Rose Bowl, LSU would play Baylor in the Sugar Bowl, Auburn would play Virginia in the Orange Bowl, and Florida would play Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl).
Our model doesn’t currently give us New Year’s Six probabilities (it’s in the works, and might or might not get here in the next few weeks), so we don’t know for sure, but the implications for Notre Dame are clear: A win might earn them a shot at their biggest bowl victory since the Lou Holtz era. A loss might relegate them to something closer to the Camping World Bowl.
For Michigan, even a win might not get them into a New Year’s Six bowl, with Ohio State and Michigan State looming and even a road date with Indiana looking troublesome (Indiana’s decent, guys!). But regardless of how it impacts the end of their season, it would be a better look than a loss given how things are going in Ann Arbor.
Wisconsin @ Ohio State (Ohio State wins in 84.5% of simulations)
This game was supposed to look a lot bigger. But Wisconsin, though very down, is not quite out. With a win, they climb back to 14.6% likely to make the playoff. It isn’t much, and it’s a compilation of paths that require a lot of help, but it’s something. For Ohio State, even a loss doesn’t doom them, dropping them only to 78.1% likely to crack the field. In simulations in which they win, though, they make it 94.8% of the time.
Auburn @ LSU (LSU wins in 70.5% of simulations)
LSU is neck-and-neck with Oklahoma in playoff probability entering this week. Auburn is seventh in the number. LSU, like Penn State, has a chance even if they wind up an 11-1 team. This is a high-leverage game.
In simulations in which LSU wins, they make the playoff 56.0% of the time, a probability that effectively combines scenarios in which they beat Alabama with ones in which they lose to the Tide but Oklahoma stumbles as well. With a loss, that number drops to 17.4%, a probability in which they pretty much have to beat Bama.
In simulations in which Auburn wins, they make the playoff 18.5% of the time. It isn’t great, but it figures to be at least the sixth-best probability in the country. Their win over Oregon is looking more helpful by the week. With a loss, it’s down to 3.0%, a point at which much chaos would be required to sneak in.
Similarly to how all Penn State games are big for the Big Ten, LSU games are important for the SEC’s shot at being a two-bid league. In simulations in which LSU beats Auburn, that probability is 38.4%. When they lose, it’s 24.5%.
