It’s Week Eight, and while the biggest games this weekend aren’t monumental, they’re still impactful.
Here’s what’s at stake, with insights from our model:
Group of Five Watch
Boise State @ BYU (Boise State wins in 69.2% of our model’s 1,000 simulations)
Temple @ SMU (SMU wins in 68.6% of simulations)
Tulsa @ Cincinnati (Cincinnati wins in 89.1% of simulations)
Louisiana-Monroe @ Appalachian State (Appalachian State wins in 89.7% of simulations)
With little chaos so far in the playoff picture, it’s almost guaranteed this won’t be the year we see a Group of Five team play for a national title. If you’re holding out hope, though, these are the games to keep an eye on. Boise State is the current king of the raft in the Group of Five—the aggregate ratings our model uses think UCF, Cincinnati, and Memphis are all better, but each of those teams already has a loss, and the media is giving the Broncos more credit than the rest—a narrative that would likely shape the playoff rankings were they released today. SMU is the lone undefeated team in the AAC. Cincinnati’s loss came at the hands of Ohio State in Columbus, and playing in the AAC, they have a stronger overall schedule than Boise State. And last as well as kind of least, Appalachian State has yet to lose and has a win over ACC runner-up hopeful UNC in its pocket, not to mention an upcoming run-in with possibly reputable South Carolina. Of course, a loss by any of these teams would reset the picture substantially.
Conference Title Implications, Nothing More for Now
Arizona State @ Utah (Utah wins in 74.4% of simulations)
Utah is on the fringes of playoff dreams, with a 1.9% probability of making the field, according to our model. They’re also the Pac-12 South favorite, though that could change with a loss. In simulations in which they win, they go on to win the Pac-12 31.6% of the time. When they lose, that number’s only 14.8%. For Arizona State, their surprisingly solid opponent (at least according to the narrative), the likelihood of winning the Pac-12 currently stands at 2.0%. With a win, it becomes 5.9%. With a loss, 0.7%.
Baylor @ Oklahoma State (Baylor wins in 42.6% of simulations)
Iowa State @ Texas Tech (Iowa State wins in 63.9% of simulations)
So far, the Big 12 has gone according to script at the top. Texas has one loss, to Oklahoma. Oklahoma hasn’t lost. If things continue in this fashion, the two will get a rematch in Arlington for the conference title. If they don’t, Baylor is currently the most likely team to jump in, with Iowa State right behind. The conference title likelihoods stack up as follows:
Oklahoma: 69.4%
Texas: 12.4%
Baylor: 8.1%
Iowa State: 7.8%
Other: 2.3%
Among the others, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech both appear, at 0.9% and 0.3% respectively. Oklahoma State was, before the season began, supposed to be in the picture, but a loss to Texas Tech changed that. Texas Tech, contrarily, was not supposed to be in the picture, but the win over Oklahoma State at least got them closer following a tight overtime loss at Baylor.
Neither Baylor nor Iowa State is likely to pass Texas this week (Texas hosts Kansas, which did not make this list as a game to watch but, because it’s college football, could prove interesting). But each could close the gap—especially Baylor, the underdog in Stillwater.
Mizzou
Missouri @ Vanderbilt (Missouri wins in 91.8% of simulations)
Missouri is in a strange place. They were banned from postseason play months ago, but they appealed, and the verdict has yet to come back. If the ban is overturned, they’ll be in the thick of both the SEC and playoff races: the ratings fancy them the 15th-best team in the country, and with Florida remaining at home to go with Georgia on the road, they’re in a position to throw the SEC East into a three-way tie simply by doing what’s expected.
There’s no way to know which way the verdict will go, but there’s a strange sort of hope in Columbia, and, at least for the time being, quite a bit to play for.
We haven’t talked a lot about Missouri so far, but they’re likely making a substantial impact in our playoff probabilities—yes, they have the loss to Wyoming on the road, but having a viable shot at the SEC title isn’t meaningless. Until we hear a verdict, our model will keep treating Missouri as a team banned from postseason competition. But remember, they’re lurking.
On the Fringes
Auburn @ Arkansas (Auburn wins in 91.3% of simulations)
Florida @ South Carolina (Florida wins in 60.5% of simulations)
Kentucky @ Georgia (Georgia wins in 94.5% of simulations)
Auburn, Florida, and Georgia each have a loss. They’re at 3.9%, 3.7%, and 3.7% in playoff likelihood, respectively. The margin for error is gone.
Florida’s game against South Carolina is the most interesting of these three, with the 3-3 Gamecocks coming off a stunner in Athens. Our model only has the Cocks as 0.5% likely to win the SEC (compared to 10.7% for Florida and 16.6% for Georgia, both of which would drop were Missouri to become postseason-unbanned), which makes that campaign virtually hopeless. But if they want to screw things up for another division rival, here’s a chance.
Contenders Who Should Roll
Ohio State @ Northwestern (Ohio State wins in 95.6% of simulations)
Tennessee @ Alabama (Alabama wins in 97.6% of simulations)
Clemson @ Louisville (Clemson wins in 94.3% of simulations)
Wisconsin @ Illinois (Wisconsin wins in 97.3% of simulations)
West Virginia @ Oklahoma (Oklahoma wins in 94.9% of simulations)
LSU @ Mississippi State (LSU wins in 83.0% of simulations)
Six of the seven legitimate playoff contenders have what figure to be relatively straightforward games. There’s about a one in three chance one of the six loses, which is significant but not probable. LSU is in the trickiest situation, heading into Starkville for what could be viewed as a trap game.
The Biggest Pac-12 Game of the Season (Probably)
Oregon @ Washington (Oregon wins in 50.9% of simulations)
Oregon’s ability to avoid losing within the conference has kept the Pac-12 meekly afloat in the playoff race, with the Ducks checking in at 5.5%. Tomorrow, they deal with their neighbors to the north, the team that was supposed to be a contender in the league but inexplicably lost to mediocre Cal and kinda-bad Stanford. With Utah’s loss to USC looking less and less likely to be viewed favorably, and Oregon the better team anyway, the West Coast’s power conference needs the Ducks to win what projects to be their toughest game ‘til bowl season.
The Biggest Game of the Week
Michigan @ Penn State (Penn State wins in 72.4% of simulations)
Penn State, the seventh contender we alluded to earlier, gets what could be a tough one this weekend. The Nittany Lions are in all likelihood the better team, but that doesn’t mean defeating a cornered Michigan will be easy.
A Penn State win would keep the Big Ten a three-team race, with Ohio State possessing a sizable lead and Wisconsin somewhere between the two. A Michigan win would drop James Franklin’s team from contention while keeping the Wolverines’ own conference (and playoff) hopes on life support.
