The second full weekend of college football is upon us, and while the season’s young, each game counts for something.
The question is just how much.
Here are today’s three biggest games, along with how our model views their consequences:
Texas A&M @ Clemson (3:30 PM Eastern)
Clemson: 88.8% favorite
Vegas and our model agree that Clemson’s a big favorite today at home against the Jimbo Fisher-led Aggies. We’re likely also on the same page when it comes to rating this game as the most difficult of Clemson’s season, up until the national semifinal.
Still, an eleven percent chance at an upset is not nothing. It’s about the same as rolling either a two or a four with two dice. And while Clemson enters today with a remarkably secure 93.2% chance of making the playoff, the 77.7% chance they have with a loss to Texas A&M is noticeably weaker (though still quite positive two weeks into the season). If Clemson wins, their likelihood rises to 95.2%.
For A&M, this game packs a lot of power. Our model and Vegas both view the Aggies as having roughly the 16th-best opportunity of any team to make the playoffs. The path is clear for them, and with a schedule that features road dates with Georgia and LSU bookending Thanksgiving (not to mention a home matchup against Alabama), they’ve got plenty of chances to make statements. But while having a strong schedule is good, having too strong a schedule can doom a team. Which is why even though the ratings we use indicate A&M’s a better team than Utah, Iowa, Texas, or Wisconsin, all four of those have a better chance of appearing in a national semifinal.
With a win, the Aggies climb from 3.5% likely to make the playoff to 9.8% likely. Nearly three times as good a chance, but still long odds. With a loss, their chances drop to 2.7%.
LSU @ Texas (7:30 PM Eastern)
LSU: 63.7% favorite
LSU’s the road favorite in this one, though the ratings our model uses give Texas slightly more credit than bettors are granting them.
Either way, the winner gets a useful notch in their belt—teams with a stronger victory at the top end of their résumé have a better chance, all else equal, of making the playoff. But the loser isn’t sunk, especially if the winner goes on to finish in or near the top ten. Still, of course, both these teams have plenty of difficult games left. In the best-case scenario for Texas, they likely have to play Oklahoma twice. In LSU’s best case, they’re playing Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Texas A&M, and most likely Georgia. We’ve yet to see a team make the playoff with two losses. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.
Our model likes LSU’s potential the rest of the way, coming in higher on the Tigers than Las Vegas is, at least relative to the field. While the bettors have LSU the seventh-most likely team to win the national championship, we have them fourth.
With a 33.4% likelihood of making the playoff in today’s simulations, LSU’s also the fourth-most likely team to find its way into the field. With a win today, that likelihood jumps to 38.6%. With a loss, it drops, but only to 24.2%. This isn’t a make or break game for Baton Rouge’s finest, but that’s a big gap.
Texas is also one of our model’s favorites, but it isn’t as high on the Longhorns as the oddsmakers are. While Texas is Vegas’ ninth-most likely team to win the national championship, it’s only our model’s eleventh-most likely team to make the playoff field. With a weaker top end, it’s harder to imagine a Big 12 team receiving forgiveness for two losses than it is for their SEC counterparts. Texas enters today with a 7.1% chance of making the playoff. If they win, that number goes up by two thirds to 11.8%. If they lose, it dwindles to 4.4%.
With that number, though, it’s clear Texas still would have a chance. A chance likely predicated on winning the Red River Shootout and either beating Oklahoma a second time or drawing a more manageable Oklahoma State or an Iowa State in the conference championship. A loss to LSU figures to be forgiven. But a second loss would probably not be.
Stanford @ USC (10:30 PM Eastern)
USC: 51.6% favorite
Stanford and USC are not the Pac-12 favorites. But this NorCal/SoCal showdown is a huge game for both. While neither has much of a playoff shot at this point (1.1% and 0.5%, respectively), both are on the fringe of conference contention. Stanford has to contend with both Washington schools and Oregon in the North. USC has to deal with Utah in the South. But both still come in between five and ten percent in likelihood to capture the fifth Power Five league’s crown.
Stanford enters tonight with an 8.8% chance of winning the Pac-12. But with the tough division, they really seem to need this win, as their conference title likelihood would nearly be cut in half by a loss, dropping to 4.5%. With a win, that likelihood climbs to 13.4%, right around the edges of a reasonable opportunity.
USC comes in behind Stanford at 6.5%, and while their chances are significantly altered by tonight’s affair, the result doesn’t carry as much weight as it does for their rival to the north. A loss drops them only to 4.3%. A win carries them only to 8.5%. Utah’s visit in two weeks is the more important affair. But, obviously, 8.5% is nearly twice as positive as 4.3%. As longshots already, the Trojans could really use a victory.
