The college football season has progressed into its seventh full week, and with a lot of chalk so far in the nation’s upper tiers, the leverages of the biggest games are rising. Here’s what our model thinks about a dozen that could impact the playoff race, in a somewhat-arbitrarily-decided increasing order of importance:
Hawaii @ Boise State (Boise State wins in 77.9% of simulations)
Cincinnati @ Houston (Cincinnati wins in 62.1% of simulations)
Memphis @ Temple (Memphis wins in 65.3% of simulations)
Cincinnati, despite their 42-0 loss earlier this year in Columbus, found their way into our model’s playoff projections in 0.2% of this week’s 1,000 simulations. It’s easy to be skeptical of the Bearcats’ chances even at that miniscule probability, but if the committee were to look at ratings like the aggregate ones our model uses, they’d see that the American Athletic Conference’s second and third-best teams are better than those of the ACC, and that the same is true regarding the leagues’ respective fifth and sixth-best teams. The AAC will not be treated as a Power Five league, and it shouldn’t be (though the ACC and Pac-12 should be treated more similarly to the AAC than they are to the Big Ten and SEC). But winning it wouldn’t be meaningless, and it would mean they’d gotten some good wins along the way. Cincinnati losing to Ohio State by that 42-0 margin hurts their chances, but the fact they played the Buckeyes at all makes the rest of their résumé look stronger thanks to an inflated strength of schedule metric.
As for Memphis and Boise State, the situation is more conventional. Going 13-0 would put them among the favorites from the Group of Five to receive the coalition’s New Year’s Six bowl berth. They’d also each be in a position where they might be able to fall into a playoff slot if enough chaos strikes the Power Five’s upper tiers. Running up the score to validate any “eye test” is also important—the committee has shown a bias against Group of Five teams, but its also shown it wants teams to win convincingly no matter what.
Colorado @ Oregon (Oregon wins in 90.6% of simulations)
It’s a take-care-of-business game for the Ducks, who are the Pac-12’s last, lonely playoff hopeful. Realistically, the bigger consequence of falling victim to an upset would be the hit their conference title chances would take. But their playoff chances would evaporate with a defeat tonight, making the stakes high in that arena as well.
Florida State @ Clemson (Clemson wins in 96.4% of simulations)
After a week off, Clemson returns to the field for the first time since nearly falling to North Carolina. Today’s FSU/Clemson games aren’t what they were circa 2015, but with the high prospect of the ACC cannibalizing itself into a pit of mediocrity, Clemson’s in a position in which they might not be able to afford a loss, and if they do lose somewhere down the road, they’ll want to be able to point to a lot of blowout wins as evidence they’re legitimate.
South Carolina @ Georgia (Georgia wins in 92.1% of simulations)
The Dawgs struggled a bit early last week against Tennessee, but they’re still the SEC East favorites, and they’re still right there with Oklahoma as the fourth-most likely team to make the playoff field. Running the Gamecocks out of the building would help ease doubts about them.
USC @ Notre Dame (Notre Dame wins in 78.9% of simulations)
The Irish are hoping for chaos (but Georgia to keep winning, and Virginia to keep winning while simultaneously continuing to deceive the media into describing them as more than a decent team picking up their best wins against other decent teams), but a win would help keep their playoff hopes afloat. The Trojans wouldn’t jump back into the fringes of contention even with a win—two losses is too many for a Pac-12 team this year.
Alabama @ Texas A&M (Alabama wins in 83.4% of simulations)
It isn’t the riskiest game on Alabama’s schedule, with A&M unlikely to win enough games that the head-to-head tiebreaker would affect the Crimson Tide. But it’s still one in which the Tide would like to roll, continuing the narrative of dominance as they approach their riskier late-season contests against LSU and Auburn.
Michigan State @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin wins in 74.2% of simulations)
Our model has calmed down a bit on the Badgers as Ohio State’s ascended, but it still rates Wisconsin as the seventh-most likely team to make the playoff field. Playing in the Big Ten, they have the luxury of not needing to win pretty to make their case. But pretty or not, they need to get a win to keep their fate in their own hands.
Penn State @ Iowa (Penn State wins in 63.9% of simulations)
The Nittany Lions’ situation is the same as that of Wisconsin, though they have to contend with Ohio State not only on the schedule but also in the division race. They’re in a fortunate position of possibly being viewed as the strongest 11-1 team in the country when all’s said and done—especially if they play Ohio State close, and especially if the SEC provides no one-loss teams beyond the champion. But getting to that scenario requires beating Iowa. In simulations in which they lose tomorrow, even though it’d be a respectable road loss, Penn State only makes the playoff in 8.3% of simulations. In those in which they win, they make the field 27.4% of the time.
Oklahoma vs. Texas (Oklahoma wins in 74.2% of simulations)
The Red River Shootout is always important, but when playoff positioning is affected by it, it’s a particularly big game. For Texas, a win could fast-track them to an appearance in the Big 12 championship, giving them margin for error when they play, say, Baylor on the road. In simulations in which the Longhorns pull off the upset tomorrow, they win the conference title 25.2% of the time. In sim’s in which they lose, that number is only 11.5%.
For Oklahoma, the stakes aren’t as Big 12-centric: A loss projects to still leave them the Big 12 favorite, winning the conference in 59.3% of simulations in which they lose, compared to 74.1% when they win. But looking at the playoff, a Sooners loss would shake up the race, dropping Lincoln Riley’s crew to 19.4% likely to make the field, compared to 39.8% likely should they win.
With Oklahoma squarely behind Ohio State, Alabama, and Clemson in playoff likelihood, and Texas struggling to even stay in the conversation, the cultural stakes surrounding this game are still bigger than its national impact. Which says a lot about the cultural stakes.
Florida @ LSU (LSU wins in 72.7% of simulations)
It’s LSU’s toughest test to date. The same, of course, is true for Florida, but the Tigers are ahead of the Gators in playoff likelihood by a few orders of magnitude (LSU makes the playoff in 27.8% of simulations, Florida makes it in only 5.5%). For Florida, a win would keep them in that niche with Penn State where they could lose to Georgia and have at least a realistic playoff chance at 11-1. A loss would make beating Georgia imperative. Numerically, their playoff chances would be 11.7% with a win, but only 3.2% with a loss.
For LSU, as moderate favorites, winning big could help their own potential 11-1 case, especially since they get Alabama on the road this year, making a loss to the Tide even less damaging to their résumé. Obviously, they’d prefer to simply run the table, but regardless, a win pushes them up to 34.7% likely to make the playoff, and a loss drops them to 9.5% likely.
