One of the things our college football model enables us to do is play the what-if game in a great level of detail. We have, each week, one thousand seasons to comb through, with which we can ask things like:
What would it take for UCF to make the playoff?
Here’s our attempt at answering that questions.
UCF made the playoffs in 40 of our 1,000 simulations this week. That isn’t a lot. Only 4.0%. Considering the fact that the Knights won the AAC in 683 simulations (68.3%), it’s clear that they, more than any other playoff contender of their stature, need some help. But what, exactly, is that help? And do they have any leeway? We looked at each of the 40 simulations in which the Knights crack the field, as well as the 960 where they don’t. This is what we found:
They’ve can’t lose.
In 218 simulations, or 21.8% of the time, UCF goes undefeated through their conference championship game, finishing with thirteen wins and zero losses. Even when this happens, they only make the playoff 39 times, implying winning out will only be good enough 17.9% of the time. In other words, the likelihood even an undefeated season will earn UCF a playoff bid only slightly tops that of rolling a seven on one roll with two dice.
There is one simulation in which they make the playoff with only twelve wins. It’s a wild simulation. Boise State and Alabama each make the field with perfect records. Wisconsin makes it, too, with two losses and no conference championship. The Pac-12 is a wasteland. Virginia wins the ACC but is sunk by two losses to mediocre teams. Michigan wins the Big Ten but has three losses. Oklahoma State only loses once and wins the Big 12, but the Pokes rely on so many close victories over middling teams that the committee leaves them out. It’s unlikely to happen. Extremely unlikely. Which is why it only happens once in the 1,000 overall simulations, a sample in which UCF goes 12-1 in 34.0% of cases.
It’s technically possible UCF could make the field with a loss. It’s also technically possible that Alabama will miss a bowl game. Neither should be remotely expected.
Notre Dame must lose. Probably twice.
Notre Dame poses a unique threat to UCF. The Knights always have to contend with the five Power Five champions, who, by definition, will have few losses if any. But when Notre Dame goes undefeated or loses only once, that adds a team to the mix without hurting anyone else (besides Georgia and Michigan). The Irish go 12-0 in 6.2% of simulations. UCF makes the playoff in only one of those 62 cases.
The SEC and ACC probably won’t supply any help.
The SEC champion finishes with one loss or zero losses in 81.4% of simulations. The ACC champion finishes with one loss or zero losses in 93.4% of simulations. These leagues each have a titan. The SEC has two more top-five teams, and three very good ones beyond that. There are only three instances in which UCF makes the playoff and the SEC champion is left out. There are only six such instances with the ACC. Yes, chaos in these conferences—which could be as simple as Clemson doing what Ohio State’s done the last two years and losing badly on the road—would help. But it isn’t likely.
The Pac-12 and Big 12 probably will supply help.
The Pac-12 champion is less likely (18.0%) to finish with zero losses or one loss than UCF is to finish with zero losses. The Big 12 champion has a 46.8% chance of having one loss or fewer, but even that’s better than a coin flip. UCF’s road to the playoff runs as surely through beating out the Pac-12 as it does Notre Dame—in only one simulation do the Knights and the Pac-12’s best both make the field. The Big 12 is the victim in a comparable quantity, with a Big 12 team only making the field in conjunction with UCF six times.
Even three-loss Power Five champions don’t guarantee UCF a spot.
Clearly, the more losses Power Five victors have suffered, the better for the Knights. But even in the 53 simulations in which UCF goes undefeated, Notre Dame loses once or more, and two or more Power Five champions lose three or more games, UCF misses the playoffs over three quarters of the time. Some of this, of course, is because non-champions get bids over their conference’s champ, but some of it is also UCF still being passed over because of, ostensibly, their schedule.
In other words, even these simulations don’t tell us what exactly UCF needs to make the playoff. We know they need 13 wins. We know they need Notre Dame to help them by losing. We know the SEC and ACC aren’t likely to help them, so their help likely has to come from two of the three other Power Five leagues. But we don’t know exactly how much help that requires. Digging deeper, we may find something, but our sample of 1,000 simulations is too small to find a uniform scenario in which UCF always makes it.
We’ll know more, of course, when we ratchet up our sample quality in a few weeks, or when the committee’s first rankings are released. It’s unclear which of those will come first, but both will provide us with information we lack right now. By then, UCF may have lost and rendered all this moot.
But even though the greatest takeaway from all this is that it’s impossible to know exactly what UCF needs to make the playoff, we can still offer a prescription we’re fairly confident we’ll work. And it’s this:
- UCF goes 13-0, winning each game by double digits.
- No non-SEC champion loses fewer than three games.
- No non-Clemson ACC team loses fewer than two games.
- Only one Big Ten team finishes with fewer than three losses.
- The Big 12 champion loses twice.
- The Pac-12 champion loses twice.
- Notre Dame loses twice.
Even this isn’t certain. UCF’s best opponents could muddle their way to disappointing finishes, leaving UCF’s schedule so decrepit, through little fault of their own, that the committee keeps them out. But at this point, with this level of technological force, it’s the best we can do. Which, in its own way, says a lot about UCF’s chances.
