Last night, we got the latest set of rankings from the College Football Playoff Selection Committee. There were few grand surprises—the primary contenders had all won soundly the week before, and while Tua Tagovailoa’s injury raised questions about Alabama’s candidacy, it would have been highly unexpected for the committee to downgrade the Tide without seeing Mac Jones face a quality opponent.
There were, however, some significant statements below the top five. FPA (Forgiveness-Punishment Adjustment, our model’s method of gauging how significantly different the selection committee is ranking teams from how they’re expected to, based on the last five seasons’ final rankings) had a busy morning taking stock of them all, and while some (SMU receiving a 0.1-point downgrade) don’t affect the playoff picture at all, some do:
Oregon and Utah, Consolidated
Oregon and Utah held steady at sixth and seventh in the rankings. This wasn’t surprising to casual observers, but it was interesting to our model, because thanks to UCLA’s strong nonconference slate, Utah’s strength of schedule rose measurably after beating the Bruins. Coming into the week, Utah had a 2.8 FPA (FPA measures how far the committee has moved teams from precedent based on a zero-to-100 scale bookended by our model’s measurements of the top and bottom teams in the FBS—a positive 2.8 FPA, then, means Utah was being ranked 2.8 points closer to LSU than precedent would have suggested). Now, that’s down to 1.6, with Oregon receiving a positive 1.2 FPA.
This is meaningless in the short term, but because it gives us an idea of how the committee’s evaluating each team, it’s helpful in answering our actual question: Would a one-loss Pac-12 champion make the playoff?
We tightened our error margins in the same run of simulations in which we added this week’s FPA’s (FPA accounts for some of our model’s margin for error, and an adjustment for this was overdue), so we don’t know for certain what changes came from error adjustments and what came from FPA. The Pac-12’s combined playoff probability remained relatively constant (36.8%), about twice that of Alabama’s individual playoff probability (18.2%). Since the likelihood of the Pac-12 champion finishing with one loss is slightly better than that of Alabama finishing with one loss, we can take this piece of data and extrapolate that our model sees the hypothetical one-loss Pac-12 champion as superior to Alabama in terms of final playoff chances, but not by a wide enough margin for the model to feel very comfortable in that projection.
What About Oklahoma?
Oklahoma’s FPA sat at positive 1.2 after last week’s rankings. It’s now at 1.0. So, no major change there—the committee is still willing to look past the Kansas State loss to a small extent, though they, like our model, recognize that loss is looking worse than it did two weeks ago.
The Sooners, though, are well behind Oregon and Utah in individual playoff probability (9.4%) despite being a heavier conference favorite than either is individually (68.9%, compared to 46.8% for Utah and 51.0% for Oregon).
Again, it’s impossible to know with any certainty what the committee will do, but signs are pointing to a one-loss Oklahoma sitting behind a possible one-loss Pac-12 champion when all’s said and done.
Minnesota and Baylor Got Some Help
It’s telling how quickly the committee changed its opinion of Minnesota. After the first rankings, the Gophers had one of the largest negative FPA’s in the country (-3.5). Now, they have one of the largest positive FPA’s (4.2). The loss to Iowa hardly dropped them in the rankings, and the Gophers’ 4.1% playoff probability, in the context of their 6.7% conference championship probability, implies that if Minnesota can somehow beat both Wisconsin and Ohio State (after taking care of Northwestern, which is no sure thing, but certainly a widely expected thing), they’re a solid bet to make the field.
Baylor, on the other hand, still doesn’t have much hope. Their Big 12 title chances sit at 29.8%, but their playoff probability is only 0.2%. That’s not very good, though it is up from the 0.0% it was at prior to the rankings’ release. The committee had given Baylor a -3.5 FPA in the first week. This week, that was erased, putting the Bears on a level playing field, albeit a playing field that still looks pretty grim.
USC and Iowa State Aren’t Contenders, but Their Rankings Aren’t Meaningless
Our model did not expect USC or Iowa State to be ranked this week, but each is. This is helpful for both the Big 12 and the Pac-12, giving conference title contenders a larger measure of hope through the addition of more top 25 victories. It’s not hugely meaningful, but in a race that could turn out very tight, it’s not necessarily insignificant.
Where the Playoff Picture Stands, as a Whole
LSU’s 95.5% playoff probability, in the context of a 56.6% SEC title probability, implies that even if the Tigers lose to Georgia, they’ll probably make the field.
The same can be said for Ohio State should they lose to Penn State or the Big Ten West champion, though their 94.8% playoff probability is smaller despite a larger conference title likelihood (74.6%). In other words, making the playoff with one loss is more likely than not, but it’s orders of magnitude less likely than it is for LSU.
Clemson’s playoff probability is 90.6%, with a conference title probability of 94.8%. The takeaway here is that Clemson probably needs to win out, but they’re very likely to do that.
Georgia’s playoff and conference title probabilities are nearly identical, at 42.3% and 43.4%, respectively. The Dawgs are most likely in if they win the SEC and out if they don’t.
Utah or Oregon, should they win out, would be in a tight race with Alabama and/or a possible one-loss Oklahoma, but in the scenario in which all three win out, the order of the race probably goes: Pac-12 champion, gap, Alabama, Oklahoma.
Penn State and Minnesota each have a good chance if they win out, but by no means is that chance guaranteed.
Wisconsin has an existent chance if they win out, but not a good one.
We’ll learn more this weekend as Ohio State hosts Penn State and the other contenders deal with opponents of varying levels of inferiority. More to come on that front Friday or Saturday morning.
