In case you haven’t heard, because you were too busy watching USC play South Dakota State to see if the Jacks still have it in the post-Daum era and if the Trojans can made Andy Enfield get all salty again like they did in 2018, Evansville beat Kentucky last night.
We’re not here to talk about Kentucky, though I’ll note that while the Wildcats are a long ways from us seriously discussing John Calipari’s shot at his second career NIT title, this was a strong first step. No, we’re here to talk about the Purple Aces, those lads from Evansville who stole your heart.
The Missouri Valley is a fertile region responsible, historically, for a lot of our country’s foodstuffs. It also seems, at a glance, like it would be fertile ground for NIT teams, as we remember Valparaiso’s title game run in 2016, the fabled Illinois State/UCF matchup in 2017, and Loyola’s appearance last year. The truth, though, is that the last time the Missouri Valley sent multiple teams to the NIT was back in 2012, and even when Valpo made that run to near-glory it did so as a member of the Horizon League. In four of the last eight years, the MVC has missed the NIT entirely.
So, while Evansville certainly hopped on our radar last night, they’ve got some work to do.
Their best bet is an automatic bid. The MVC projects to be tight this year: Five of the league’s ten teams received first-place votes in the conference’s preseason poll, and ask anyone who’s been in a coma since 2007 if Southern Illinois, who was picked to finish last, can be taken lightly. It’s a wide-open race, and Evansville’s as capable as anyone of swooping in to grab it. From there, losing one of three potential games against roughly equivalent competition would be the easy part.
There is, though, the chance of an at-large bid. It’s a narrow slot in which to contort oneself, but certain mid-major non-conference schedules are well-built to do it. Here’s how it works:
Evansville’s next game against a Division I opponent comes Monday against SMU. SMU’s looking like a CBI contender, so winning would start to build support from all those raging mid-major basketball bloggers who want nothing more than for the Pac-12 to sink into the sea. From there, the nonconference slate’s pretty easy—Evansville has a few tossups in their way, but finishing nonconference play 13-0 with an Islands of the Bahamas Showcase title under their belt is certainly possible. Do that, and the Purple Aces might be ranked. And as we all know, nothing supports an NIT bid more than a top 25 ranking of ambiguous merit.
From there, all Evansville would probably have to do would be to finish second or third in their conference standings. Picking up five or six damaging losses in conference play should be no trouble for the Purple Aces, because, as we’ve noted, SIU’s out there. This path would be tight, of course—the NIT at-large window is awe-inspiringly small—but the door, for now, is open.
Again, though, just winning the regular season title is probably Evansville’s best bet.
