Duke’s pretty squarely in the midst of today’s NIT Bracketology. There isn’t a lot that can push them in or out (although, as we’ve been saying—no guarantees). But they now have the best excuse yet to not play in the NIT, should they be invited.
So who the heck knows.
Today’s NITuation:
Movin’ Out (Anthony’s Song): Drake, Toledo
Drake flipped again with Michigan State—razor-thin, changing day to day, quite possibly will keep doing that because our model did expect MSU to lose to Maryland and that’s how it’s going in the second half of that one.
Toledo got passed. They’re also in overtime against Ball State as this is written, so the passing may have been prescient.
Moving In: Michigan State, Minnesota
The Gophers slide back onto the final seed line. Minnesota does have the .500 issue: They’ll be 14-15 if they lose today. This means: It’s unclear if the committee will go for them or not, but aside from the W-L optics, we’d expect them to be deserving by a hair if everyone played out to their exact median simulation.
Lotta time left.
Next in Line:
Below the field, from closest to close:
Toledo
Kentucky
Richmond
North Carolina State
Dayton
Stanford
Providence
Davidson
Georgia
Belmont
Marshall
Georgetown
Next out of Line:
Above the field, from closest to close:
Drake
SMU
Colorado State
Boise State
Louisville
Wichita State
Maryland
Virginia Tech
UCLA
Syracuse
Oklahoma
Colgate
***
And that’s the NITuation.
Today’s notes:
- Duke’s win yesterday prepared them well for this time of uncertainty. It also pulled Louisville down close to the field. Not close enough (barring a lot of chaos), but close.
- Syracuse likely played themselves out of things, just wrecking NC State yesterday. NC State, for their part, is also now out of things.
- For Minnesota, it was a mess of a 51-46 win over Northwestern that pushed them up.
- Georgetown showed some life, beating Marquette.
- Penn State beat Nebraska by the exact margin expected.
- Xavier blew it in a big way, lost to Butler in overtime, and now looks great for the NIT. Clutch.
- Providence lost to DePaul, which put them pretty squarely into hoping-for-opt-outs-land.
- Repeat that sentence above, but replace “Providence” with “Stanford” and “DePaul” with “Cal.”
- Marshall lost to Rice. Marshall:Providence::Rice:DePaul.
- Oklahoma beat Iowa State, so they’re probably done.
- Colgate did slip a little after beating Bucknell. If they lose Sunday, the assumption would be NIT, but we really don’t know.
- Michigan State is trailing Maryland big, as was said. This is good for Sparty’s chances, but might not quite be enough. Meanwhile, kiss Maryland goodbye. Always tantalizing.
- Georgetown is playing Villanova, with Justin Moore surprisingly on the court for the Wildcats. Hoyas need a comeback.
- Kentucky’s in action against Mississippi State, and is likely giving themselves the dagger, down 13 a few minutes into the second half.
- Penn State plays Wisconsin tonight. If they lose, our model would confidently place them in the field, and we would not at all confidently keep publishing our model’s output. We just don’t know with Penn State. If they win, they’re going into the other tournament in our projection, and we’re gonna get all kinds of hate clicks off Bracket Matrix.
- Indiana gets Rutgers. Don’t try anything rash, now, Archie.
- Seton Hall and St. John’s play. Guessing they’re both safe, but you never know.
- Minnesota gets Ohio State. Win would help them.
- Georgia plays Mizzou. If Tom Crean’s going to helm a run, now’s the time.
- A closing argument from Boise State? The Broncos get Nevada in their MWC Tournament opener.
- A closing argument from Colorado State? The Rams get Fresno State in their MWC Tournament opener.
- UCLA isn’t done yet, but they’d probably have to get smoked by Oregon State. Turn on those chainsaws, Beavers. (I’m told they play chainsaw noises at Oregon State football games?)
- Mississippi plays South Carolina. Just need to take care of business.
- Western Kentucky plays UTSA. Just need to take care of business.
- Toledo escaped Ball State, so they’re alive.
- I don’t think a loss to Miami would be bad enough to pull Georgia Tech in, but a guy’s gotta have hope.
- Utah State plays UNLV. Just don’t beat ‘em by too much, guys.
Bona NIT.
