1. Things have gotten even worse.
The Cubs are now seven and a half games back.
2. The offense did nothing.
And it’s not like the Reds’ bullpen is particularly good.
3. The Reds’ offense did very little.
The flipside of that previous bullet is that the Cubs drew one more walk and had a better xBA than their opponent, something that, if repeated a large number of times, will result in more runs scored than allowed. But, you want to hit the ball better than the Cubs hit the ball.
4. Alec Mills was wonderful.
That was the best K/BB performance of this guy’s career, and it’s safe to say he belongs in the rotation now regardless of who comes up and comes back, if anyone was still questioning that. Mills has shown some great promise, something that shouldn’t be overlooked as we start…sigh…thinking more about 2023.
***
Around the Division:
The Brewers beat the Pirates. The Cardinals broke past the Rockies, tying it in the ninth and winning it in the tenth.
Standings, FanGraphs division championship probabilities:
1. Milwaukee: 50-33, 86.3%
2. Cubs: 42-40, 5.1%
3. Cincinnati: 41-40, 6.8%
4. St. Louis: 41-42, 1.9%
5. Pittsburgh: 29-52, 0.0%
Eric Lauer pitches against Cody Ponce in Pittsburgh today. Wade LeBlanc and Kyle Freeland get the nods in Denver.
Up Next:
Game 2
***
Whom:
Cubs vs. Cincinnati
When:
3:10 PM Chicago Time
Where:
Great American Ballpark
Weather:
Temperatures peaking around 80, with winds blowing out at five to ten miles per hour.
Starting Pitchers:
Adbert Alzolay vs. Tyler Mahle
The Opponent:
Mahle’s having a great year after a great year last year, with a 3.33 xERA, a 3.54 FIP, and an ERA that isn’t far off either of those. The Reds might have something in the 26-year-old.
The Numbers:
The Cubs are +115 underdogs. Reds are at -135. That comes out to about a 44% chance of a win, or four-in-nine. Over/under’s at nine and leans towards the over.
Cubs News:
Kohl Stewart got the call-up to replace Tommy Nance on the roster. Patrick Wisdom, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo all played yesterday, which is a relief.
Cubs Thoughts:
You’ve just gotta hope for a win here. But beyond that…
One thing that calms my gut a bit is the thought that the Cubs’ rotation in 2023 could be Kyle Hendricks, Adbert Alzolay, Alec Mills, Brailyn Márquez, and then Keegan Thompson or Cory Abbott. That could be a pretty good rotation in 2023. If you’re looking to think on some positives.
