It’s Tuesday, and I’m willing to bet that some fan at the A-10 Tournament has already nastily spilled their Dr. Pepper all over their pants.
Let’s dig in!
NIT Play-Ins
- 6:30 PM EST: Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. McNeese State (ESPNU)
- 7:00 PM EST: College of Charleston vs. UNC Wilmington (CBSSN)
- 7:00 PM EST: Binghamton @ Vermont (ESPN+)
- 9:00 PM EST: Oral Roberts vs. North Dakota State (ESPN2)
Texas A&M Corpus Christi, Vermont, and Oral Roberts are each in with a loss. Oral Roberts is also out with a win (this is only the semis for Vermont and AMCC, but it is the Summit League Tournament championship game).
Charleston? A little more complicated. Probably in with a loss (#2bidCAA), but there’s a chance they’d be on the bubble. We need to reflect. Definitely out with a win (this is the CAA championship).
NIT Bubble Action
- 7:00 PM EST: Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame (ACCN)
Virginia Tech is a great team to cheer against if you are a fan of an NIT bubble team not named Virginia Tech. The Hokies are a projected at-large bid, but they’re unseeded, meaning the cut line looms large. Notre Dame is quite bad this year, so an Irish win would at the very least pull VT back within arm’s reach for schools like Cincinnati and UCF, and open up some breathing room for the Washington States and Villanovas of the world.
Deep Cuts and Complications
We’re gonna list the relevant games by conference tournament, and this list won’t be exhaustive but it will hopefully be manageable (many tournaments have no NIT-relevant action today, and some are relevant but the teams are equal enough or far enough away from NIT contenders in the brackets that we don’t have anything to watch for), and then we’re gonna list who NIT bubble teams want to win.
The ACC:
- 2:00 PM EST: Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (ACCN)
- 4:30 PM EST: Boston College vs. Louisville (ACCN)
The ND/VT winner plays NC State, the winners of these two play Pitt (FSU/GT) and UNC (BC/Louisville).
The WAC:
- 3:00 PM EST: Cal Baptist vs. Abilene Christian (ESPN+)
- “5:00 PM EST:” Grand Canyon vs. UT Arlington (ESPN+)
- 8:00 PM EST: Tarleton vs. UT Rio Grande Valley (ESPN+)
- “10:00 PM EST:” Stephen F. Austin vs. Utah Tech (ESPN+)
Sam Houston State plays the winner of CBU/ACU, Utah Valley plays the winner of Tarleton/UTRGV. Grand Canyon and Stephen F. Austin are each good enough to win this thing. Tarleton and Utah Tech are still transitioning to Division I (it appears Cal Baptist has completed its transition), and I don’t know how the WAC will handle its NCA* *********t automatic bid if one of those two wins this tournament, but it would most likely result in Utah Valley or Sam Houston State missing the NIT.
The A-East:
- 6:00 PM EST: New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell (ESPN+)
This game’s winner makes the A-East championship, likely to play Vermont.
The MAAC:
- 5:00 PM EST: Mount St. Mary’s vs. Canisius (ESPN+)
This game’s winner plays Iona.
The Southland:
- 9:00 PM EST: Northwestern State vs. New Orleans (ESPN+)
The winner here will play TAMUCC in the Southland Championship if TAMUCC also gets there.
The Big West:
- 9:00 PM EST: Cal State Bakersfield vs. Cal State Northridge (ESPN+)
- 11:30 PM EST: Long Beach State vs. Cal Poly (ESPN+)
The victorious Cal State plays UC Irvine, the LBSU/Poly winner plays UCSB.
Now.
The list of teams NIT bubbler fans want to support, for the purposes of giving potential automatic bids the easiest path to winning their conference tournament (thereby turning their potential spot into an available at-large spot) and giving potential at-large bids the hardest path to making the NIT (through making Upper Bubble teams win and Lower Bubble teams lose):
- Florida State (fans of teams on the Upper Bubble want Pitt to win so Pitt misses the NIT and their team makes it)
- Louisville (ditto Pitt, but with UNC)
- Cal Baptist (likelier to give Sam Houston State a bad loss)
- UT Arlington (clears out GCU, makes it easier for Utah Valley to win the WAC Tournament, or SHSU if Utah Valley goes down)
- UTRGV (easier opponent for Utah Valley)
- Utah Tech (clears out SFA, makes it likelier at least one of Utah Valley/SHSU misses the NIT; the nightmare scenario for bubble fans is both making it)
- New Hampshire (easier opponent for Vermont if Vermont wins)
- New Orleans (easier opponent for AMCC if AMCC wins)
- Northridge (easier opponent for UC Irvine)
- Long Beach State (likelier to beat UCSB, which would make it easier for UC Irvine to win the Big West Tournament)
Good luck out there.
