“N-I-T! N-I-T! N-I-T! N-I-T!” – the people
It’s morning, and that means afternoon is on its way, and after the afternoon? That’s the night. Or should I say…the NITe! Tuesday NITe. With basketball games that will have NIT fans in a downright tizzy.
(Everyone please go wish my brother Will a happy birthday right now. He’s turning 32. That’s the number of teams that are in the NIT! Wow. Just realized that’s his age now. What a year this will be for him.)
Ok. Games:
Game of the NITe
- 8:30 PM EST: Villanova @ Seton Hall (FS1)
The secret’s out. Villanova’s back. Justin Moore’s healthy, and the Wildcats are playing so well that people are making bold claims about their ability to miss the NIT on the *other* side. Us? We aren’t convinced. The gate is narrow, but it’s not that narrow. (We didn’t realize for an embarrassingly long time that Moore was back. Joe even blogged asking if there was something he was missing with Xavier because a Nova/Xavier line seemed off. Not Xavier, Joe! You were all over Xavier! We’ve been trying to make up for this all by mentioning Justin Moore more than any other website on The Internet™.)
A thing about Villanova is that they aren’t out of the bottom bubble woods. They’re close to even money this evening at Seton Hall, they should be a narrow underdog on Saturday when UConn comes to the Main Line (just kidding, the game’s in Philly, again we totally knew that this is not us covering our tracks), and they need to win one of those if they don’t want to have to win two in the Big East Tournament. That’s just to stay at or above .500. If they sweep the pair? Sure, they’re in trouble, but they aren’t in trouble yet. In fact, the trouble they’re in right now is that they might lose both of them. Bottom line? Win it, Villanova.
And why are we only talking about Villanova? Is it because they’re a bigger brand, and a more prestigious program, and a more unusual NIT participant? Yes. But Seton Hall is in the mix too, and they need wins. Meeting arbitrary thresholds like having a .500 record or being three games over .500 isn’t the focus for Seton Hall. They haven’t done enough to command that specific disrespect. They just need to turn this skid around.
UNC, Wisconsin
I’m sorry but we’re not going to not focus on UNC and Wisconsin. One of them is among the programs the mainstream media calls the most storied in college basketball. The other is a big school close to my hometown attended by a lot of our friends. We want both in the NIT, and we’re not above admitting that. It’s for the NIT’s good, after all.
Anyway, here are the big ones to watch with these two toNITe, in addition to the Upper Bubble games I’m guessing we’ll list below (we really don’t sketch these posts out, we just open Microsoft Word and let it rip):
- 7:00 PM EST: Clemson @ Virginia (ACCN)
Ok that’s it. Honestly, this should probably be about Clemson. But again: We aren’t above admitting this is not about Clemson. Clemson doesn’t move our needle. (Clemson fans, winning this would probably move you to the upper bubble but we don’t think it would move you out of our grasp.)
The great thing about the quadrant system on NCA* *********t Team Sheets is that it helps quantify good wins and bad losses in a specific, explicit way, rather than just leaving the definition of ‘good win’ as ‘name brand.’ The bad thing is that there are arbitrary lines between quadrants because they set this up in a quaternary fashion instead of just giving each win a score or a rank or something. Perhaps you’ve heard, watching any college basketball game and/or SportsCenter over the last month, that UNC is in need of Q1 wins. Well, they got one on Saturday. They beat Virginia, who is 28th in NET. Where’s the Q1 line? Between 30th and 31st, if the game is a home game like that one was for UNC. If Virginia drops past that? Poof! Q1 win, gone.
Because our occupying tournament’s selection committee places so much stock in Q1 results, UNC is in a boat now where they really want Virginia to win this game, tonight, and ideally to do it by more than a handful of points, because even a close win would be risky. It follows, then, that we want the opposite. We want Virginia to lose this game, and to lose it badly. We want Virginia’s NET ranking in the 30s, and not 30. We want UNC to lose a Q1 win toNITe through no action of their own. And we want to see peoples’ heads explode over it. I want bracketologists to be unhinged on Twitter. I want people who earnestly believe that the NCA* *********t selection committee won’t bend things for UNC the way they bent them for Michigan State two years ago to say UNC is somehow getting screwed. I want an angry UNC fan in the comments. At least one! Maybe even a bitter email.
Upper Bubble
- 7:00 PM EST: Iowa @ Indiana (ESPN2)
- 7:00 PM EST: NC State @ Duke (ESPN)
- 9:00 PM EST: Texas Tech @ Kansas (ESPN)
- 9:00 PM EST: San Diego State @ Boise State (CBSSN)
- 9:00 PM EST: South Carolina @ Mississippi State (SECN)
- 10:30 PM EST: Fresno State @ New Mexico (FS1)
The biggest one here is probably Texas Tech playing Kansas. If Texas Tech wins that, it’s on. There isn’t that much of a reason to think they will—the game is at Allen Fieldhouse, Kansas is favored by something like a dozen, I assume—but that’s kind of the point. That’s what makes it a big win if it happens.
A big loss if it happens? Mississippi State’s. To use a simile SEC fans will understand: Hosting South Carolina is like driving around with a gun in your backseat. Nothing good can come of that. Something bad can, something very bad, but nothing good. The only difference here is that out of love for Mississippi State, we want the bad thing this time. Come on down, guys. Bring those cowbells.
The Mountain West is on the hot seat after Nevada pulled a 2016 NFL Draft and executed a big drop involving Laramie. Boise State is now tasked with reclaiming some of the mojo, and New Mexico can’t flub it up. Or………………. (those guys could both lose and the MWC could be a four-bid NIT league).
NC State and Iowa are in danger of being in danger, which is why they can’t win these tonight. These would be killer victories for the dreams. And off of that, one more thing: If Indiana students don’t have some great Fran McCaffery staredown content, they don’t deserve to be Back. Let’s make that abundantly clear. They need to bully that man.
Lower Bubble
- 7:00 PM EST: Florida @ Georgia (SECN)
- 7:00 PM EST: Boston College @ Wake Forest (ESPNU)
- 9:00 PM EST: Virginia Tech @ Louisville (ACCN)
- 9:00 PM EST: Michigan State @ Nebraska (BTN)
- 11:00 PM EST: Colorado State @ San Jose State (CBSSN)
If Florida loses this game, they need to win at least two in the SEC Tournament to get back to .500. If Florida wins…they might be back?
Wake Forest and Virginia Tech are somewhere vaguely in the region of the bubble. Opinions differ on where exactly they are. But everyone agrees that losing these games would be a terrible idea.
Nebraska and San Jose State are trying to stack wins. This one would make a difference for the Huskers in any form it can come. For the Spartans (the San Jose State ones, damn is this confusing, who knew there would be so many Spartans in college basketball), margin matters. Blow ‘em out, Tim Miles (oh my gosh I didn’t even realize this was a Tim Miles/Nebraska combo blurb this really worked out nicely for me).
Lower Bubble AND Auto-Bid Complications
- 7:00 PM EST: Saint Louis @ VCU (CBSSN)
- 7:00 PM EST: La Salle @ Dayton (looks like this is on USA but there are doubts)
- 7:00 PM EST: Ohio @ Kent State (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: Toledo @ Central Michigan (ESPN+)
VCU clinches the A-10 with a win, while SLU and Dayton each try to work their way up the bubble ladder before it gets too late. In the MAC, Toledo tries to stay a step ahead of Kent State, Kent State who’s working on their own NIT at-large campaign in case the league title thing falls through.
Just Auto-Bid Complications
Ok actually none of this tonight.
Really Low Bubble
- 7:00 PM EST: Georgia Tech @ Syracuse (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: Ball State @ Akron (ESPN+)
If you talk about Syracuse, you have to talk about Akron. That is a real thing that is going on. Very similar NIT résumés. Neither should be in the mix but who the hell knows.
Conference Tournaments
We’ll start with the ASUN, because they started with us (this doesn’t make sense, why did I write this).
- 7:00 PM EST: Bellarmine @ Liberty (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: Queens @ Kennesaw State (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: Lipscomb @ Stetson (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: North Alabama @ Eastern Kentucky (ESPN+)
Why was the ASUN making Queens and Bellarmine play teams not named Kennesaw State and Liberty on Kennesaw State and Liberty’s courts last night? So they could play again tonight without having to travel, of course!
This is a thing about the ASUN: At a glance, it makes very little sense. But when you look closely, it makes perfect sense. This is going to be a big problem when the SEC gets involved, and I’m not talking about the Southeastern Conference poaching Liberty in 19 years.
Kennesaw State’s situation, as the ASUN champion, is straightforward until it isn’t: They’re in the NIT if they lose this tournament AND (and here’s where it stops being straightforward) Queens and Bellarmine both lose this tournament. Can that happen tonight? No. Only two of those three teams can lose at once. So, we’ll at least be watching this into the semis.
Liberty’s is kind of the same. If they lose, they should be an NIT team, but we aren’t positive about that because we don’t really know how bad a home loss to the 264th-ranked team in the country would be. If the committee operates like last year’s, and loves how good teams are? Liberty should still be in. If it’s more a best–résumé school of thought? That puts Liberty in danger with a loss. Take the chances you can get if you’re Liberty, but you are not a lock with a loss, even if the blogosphere thinks Bellarmine’s a household name. The blogosphere is nuts. You should know this more than anyone. Your own non-basketball blogosphere is the nutsest. It elected a president! And he was nuts!
On to the Horizon:
- 7:00 PM EST: Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: IUPUI @ Robert Morris (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: Green Bay @ Wright State (ESPN+)
I really thought there was a twelfth team in the Horizon League, which led to me spending an unreasonable amount of time (like two minutes, but still unreasonable) looking for a fourth game here.
It’s the opening round, and for fans of NIT bubblers, the hope is that IUPUI or Green Bay springs an upset. The HoLo reseeds each round, so Youngstown State gets to host the lowest remaining seed in the quarterfinals. NIT bubblers want Youngstown State to win this tournament. Youngstown State wants Youngstown State to lose this tournament. For us. They want to be with us. Don’t listen if they tell you otherwise.
Next, the Sun Belt:
- 6:00 PM EST: Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina (ESPN+)
- 8:30 PM EST: Georgia State vs. Texas State (ESPN+)
We’ve got a long way to go before any of our four Sun Belt characters play. None of our four Sun Belt characters play tonight. None of our four Sun Belt characters play tomorrow. None of our four Sun Belt characters play Thursday or Friday. What do people want out of those Sun Belt characters when they do play? Well, NIT bubbler fans want Southern Miss to win the tournament and they want Marshall, Louisiana, and James Madison to take bad losses. But Marshall, Louisiana, and James Madison all want the best competition they can get, because they’re all trying to make a case. But do they want that on Saturday, or do they want that in the semis, where they could play each other and Southern Miss? My takeaway from all of this is, as my eyes glaze over, that it is in fact possible to spend too much time blogging about the Sun Belt. I’ll cheer for Texas State because I have friends who went there.
And lastly, the Patriot League:
- 7:00 PM EST: Bucknell @ American (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: Holy Cross @ Loyola Maryland (ESPN+)
Go Saders.
