I watched a lot of ESPN morning talk shows this week (it was a weird week), and three things struck me about the state of the College Football Playoff conversation, using those shows as its barometer:
#1: TCU is more likely to win out than USC is, and yet…
Movelor, our model’s rating system, has the spreads as follows right now for TCU’s final three games:
- TCU (+0.5) @ Baylor
- TCU (-9.3) vs. Iowa State
- TCU (-0.2) vs. Kansas State (this is a worst-case matchup for TCU)
By contrast, it has the following lines for USC’s final three games:
- USC (+1.5) @ UCLA
- USC (+0.7) vs. Notre Dame
- USC (+4.6) vs. Oregon (this is the second-worst-case matchup for USC, but probably the likeliest)
Now, Movelor’s a little lower than FPI and SP+ on ol’ Southern Cal. But…it’s also lower on TCU than at least SP+ is. Movelor has TCU 10th and USC 22nd. FPI has USC 14th and TCU 16th. SP+ has TCU 6th and USC 11th. There are differences elsewhere, but the general message is that across the upcoming three games, TCU has two tossups and one game as a solid favorite while USC most likely has three tossups even if they do make the Pac-12 Championship, which isn’t a given (and they could be a medium-sized underdog against Oregon or Utah if they do make it).
TCU’s remaining path is easier than USC’s, and at the very least, they’re a comparable team to the Trojans. So, any dismissal of the Horned Frogs should be accompanied by an equal dismissal of USC, and in fact, since USC already has a loss (even if it’s a good loss, it’s a loss), they should be dismissed…harder? The bottom line: USC’s playoff chance is a seventh of that of TCU, and USC’s chance of winning out is substantially lower than TCU’s. The conversation, at least on ESPN, has it different.
#2: Ohio State is a different animal from Michigan, and yet…
Michigan’s schedule is coming under fire, and that’s both fair and unfair. The fair part is that the Wolverines scheduled Colorado State, Hawaii, and UConn in nonconference play. The unfair part is that the Wolverines beat the pants off of a good Penn State team and have never been in terrible danger against anyone else. They’d be favored by most rating systems in a neutral-site matchup against Tennessee, and who did Tennessee play in nonconference? Pitt, yes, but the SEC plays one fewer conference game, so sub that in for a mediocre Big Ten opponent of your choosing and wipe it from the slate. The others are UT-Martin, Akron, and Ball State. Hardly a rousing trio.
Anyway, there’s a fair part to the Michigan hate, but it’s unfair when the same logic is applied to Ohio State, who beat Notre Dame in nonconference play and have been utterly pounding everyone not named Penn State and Northwestern in the Big Ten. These guys put up 54 against an Iowa team that likely has the best defense in the country. They’re much more in Georgia’s stratum than Michigan’s, and if they lose to the Wolverines next weekend, the committee is both likely to treat them as such and justified in treating them as such. We can say we don’t know how good Michigan is, even if we really probably do. We can’t say that about Ohio State, whose 11-1 candidacy has been called a toss-up by some who should know better.
#3: Four Teams Make the Playoff
This is a classic gag by talking heads with these things, and as with the Michigan hate there are fair and unfair pieces about it, but when you set hard and fast thresholds for teams who don’t fully control their fate, saying, “12-1 gets them in” or “12-1 means they’re out,” you’re oversimplifying at this stage, and it’s really oversimplifying to say Clemson, Utah, Oregon, UNC, Alabama, or a hypothetical one-loss TCU can’t make this playoff. There are scenarios which get each of those six into the field—scenarios of attrition. Do you want to hear one script? This one ends with all of UNC, Alabama, a one-loss TCU, and Utah in the mix.
- TCU loses to Baylor.
- LSU loses to Texas A&M.
- Utah blows out Oregon.
- Utah blows out Oregon again or the USC/UCLA winner.
- UNC and Alabama both win out.
- TCU beats Kansas State handily in the Big 12 title game.
- Ohio State or Michigan goes down this weekend, then loses again next weekend.
What we have here is Georgia, Tennessee, and the Ohio State/Michigan survivor in the field. USC, LSU, and Oregon are all out. The committee’s options are either a recognizably mediocre one-loss ACC champion (UNC), a thoroughly questioned one-loss Big 12 champion (TCU), a 10-2 SEC team who’s probably quite good (Alabama), and an 11-2 Pac-12 champion who’s probably pretty good (Utah). Who would they pick? It’s hard to say with certainty, but they’d have to take one of those four teams.
This scenario is unlikely, but it’s possible. The point is that it’s possible. Importantly too, it’s not the only possibility, and with each additional possibility the cumulative probability mounts. Alabama? 1-in-300 chance. Tons needs to happen. Utah? 1-in-67. Clemson? 1-in-14. Still a tough path, but almost three times as likely as rolling snake eyes.
The point is: Only TCU, Ohio State, and Michigan really control their respective fates, as well as Georgia, who’s in unless they somehow lose twice in these last three games despite being more than two-touchdown favorites in all three (1-in-100 chance Georgia misses the playoff, for those now asking). We have a lot of time to go.
Now, let’s talk about some football games.
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The Big Ones
There are two games this weekend that are expected to be close and also directly involve playoff candidates. The first is in Waco. The second is in Los Angeles. That’s a funny pair of sentences to seem normal to us. College sports are great.
12:00 PM EST: TCU @ Baylor (FOX)
8:00 PM EST: USC @ UCLA (FOX)
A hilarious plot in college football this season is that we’ve seen TCU and USC go a combined 19-1, losing their only combined loss by a point on a road to a good team, and we still don’t know if either is all that good. They’ve consistently done enough to win, but they haven’t consistently impressed. In fact, they’ve rarely impressed. To the degree that were Texas and USC to play tomorrow, Texas would probably be favored even if the game was happening in the Coliseum.
So, it’s a prove-it weekend for both these clear candidates, in addition to including at least one elimination game between the pair. With a loss, TCU’s playoff chances take a hard tumble, not reaching zero (unless it’s quite the stomping) but likely getting close. With a loss, USC’s playoff chance is probably zilch. And with the spreads on these close to even, there’s about a 70% probability at least one of the two does go down tomorrow.
For TCU, Baylor’s quietly a major rival, and while the Horned Frogs have won six of the last seven meetings, it’s Baylor who’s achieved more national success, and Baylor whose 61-58 victory in 2014 kept TCU from boxing Ohio State out of the first College Football Playoff. Baylor and TCU operate within this sphere of not being considered as even candidates to be the top program in Texas despite outperforming both big-name programs in Texas consistently since the Longhorns last won it all, and despite thoroughly outperforming Texas Tech for years. They’re far from the same school as one another—as I understand it, TCU is a pop country concert while Baylor is a megachurch service—but they’re in the same tier, adding extra salt to a game that needed little seasoning.
For USC, UCLA isn’t quite the archrival (at least in football), but they’re the crosstown team, and as a school (not as a football program, but more broadly, as an institution), they’re the “cooler” of the two. UCLA is in Westwood. UCLA is five minutes from the ocean. UCLA is a basketball school, UCLA is a ridiculously affordable great education (for Californians, and this is relatively speaking so don’t come hitting me with tuition bubble commentary), UCLA is about its undergrads. UCLA is not big brother in the rivalry, but it’s the more popular younger brother. As I understand it, anyway. Unlike Baylor, too, UCLA is having its own great year, and had they not completely shat the bed last weekend against Arizona, we’d be talking about them just as much as we’ve talked about USC, since they’re more or less comparable teams in terms of quality. It has the markings of a frenzied game offensively, with each offense regarded as one of the nation’s best and each defense decidedly flawed. It should be very, very fun.
The Good One
Hidden by these two, we have two better teams playing in the same league a long way up the coast.
10:30 PM EST: Utah @ Oregon (ESPN)
If Utah had only punched it in down in Gainesville…
If Oregon had only chosen a different year to schedule Georgia on the road…
Utah and Oregon are the Pac-12’s two best teams, and whichever wins this game is eminently likely to both make the Pac-12 Championship and be the Pac-12 Championship favorite. There are debates about how much better Oregon is than USC, but there are no debates that the better of the Utes and the Ducks is the best team west of the Rockies, if not west of the Mississippi River.
There’s history here as well, though it’s of the extremely recent variety. Last year, these two met this weekend with Oregon laughably ranked 4th in the country despite holding a loss to then-seven-loss Stanford (the Ducks had beaten Ohio State on the road, and the committee wanted to reward that, but they took it way too far). Utah incinerated the birds, scoring 38 points and allowing seven. Then, two weeks later, they did it again in the Pac-12 Championship, by nearly the exact same score. Utah embarrassed this program, and Dan Lanning wasn’t there yet but a whole lot of his players were.
This year’s Oregon is a better team than last year’s was, and the jury’s out on whether Utah’s improved any. The game should be a heck of a lot closer than those two last fall. But the Pac-12 doesn’t run through Los Angeles right now. It runs through Salt Lake City and Eugene, and for as prominent as the USC/UCLA game is, this one’s the bigger deal. Can Oregon’s defense make enough stops? Can Utah’s offense keep up with the guys in green? It’s the best game of the weekend, and the stakes aren’t directly national, but the winner is unlikely to be totally dead to playoff possibility come Sunday, and conference championships are meaningful in and of themselves.
The Tricky Ones
There are twelve teams out there who retain more than a 1-in-1,000 playoff shot. Four of them, we’ve covered already. Three of them, we’ll cover below. Five of them are either on the road this weekend against a Power Five foe or sitting as less than a 20-point favorite at home. There’s a whiff of chaos in the air.
12:00 PM EST: Illinois @ Michigan (ABC)
3:30 PM EST: Georgia @ Kentucky (CBS)
3:30 PM EST: Ohio State @ Maryland (ABC)
7:00 PM EST: Tennessee @ South Carolina (ESPN)
9:00 PM EST: UAB @ LSU (ESPN2)
The whiff is only a whiff, to be clear on this. The probability at least one of these five teams loses is, per Movelor, only 1-in-3. But, 1-in-3 is significant. One or more of these five might well go down.
Maryland, Kentucky, and South Carolina are in similar positions: They’ve shown some competence, but they haven’t shown themselves as nationally competitive, or anywhere particularly close to that. Wins from any of those three would look a lot more like the time Purdue beat Ohio State in 2018 than the time Texas A&M beat Alabama in 2012. Illinois is in a similar situation, but they’re playing on the road, and Michigan’s getting the most hate of any of those big four teams. UAB? Well, let’s talk about UAB.
UAB isn’t sneakily good. They’re fine—66th in the country in Movelor, right around Syracuse and Mizzou—but they aren’t some high-potential mid-major like Appalachian State is thought to be (App State isn’t that either, but hopefully this gives you the idea). The issue is that LSU just isn’t all that good. They’re definitely playing better than they did early this season, but all three of Movelor, FPI, and SP+ have the Tigers closer to Notre Dame in quality than to Tennessee, let alone Michigan or Ohio State or Georgia. LSU upset Alabama, who is having a loud down year, by a point at home. They also…beat up an unproven Mississippi team?
Brian Kelly got very good by the end of his South Bend tenure at avoiding terrible losses, and there’s no reason to think LSU’s in particular danger among these five. But the fact they’re making a visit from UAB at least somewhat interesting says a lot about LSU’s chances against Georgia in two weeks’ time. That game is currently poised to be a bloodbath.
The Business Ones
In a plot twist, Clemson and UNC are down here, where there’s just a 1-in-6 probability at least one of the three favorites loses.
12:00 PM EST: Austin Peay @ Alabama (ESPN+)
3:30 PM EST: Miami @ Clemson (ESPN)
5:30 PM EST: Georgia Tech @ UNC (ESPN2)
It says a lot about Miami that they’re here with Georgia Tech and Austin Peay. It says a lot about Georgia Tech that they’re here with Austin Peay. And there I was wincing at Kentucky falling back to the realm of South Carolina while I wrote that last blurb.
The Ones That Kind of Matter
You could include Tulane/SMU in this, but that already happened, and Tulane’s surprising blowout win theoretically provided a little transitive boost for TCU by way of Kansas State. Now, others where at least one team involved is a main character in another’s playoff plot:
12:00 PM EST: Louisiana @ Florida State (ESPN3)
2:00 PM EST: Kansas State @ West Virginia (ESPN+)
2:15 PM EST: Oregon State @ Arizona State (ESPN2)
2:30 PM EST: Boston College @ Notre Dame (NBC)
3:30 PM EST: Penn State @ Rutgers (BTN)
3:30 PM EST: NC State @ Louisville (ESPN3)
3:30 PM EST: Texas @ Kansas (FS1)
7:30 PM EST: Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma (ABC)
8:00 PM EST: Syracuse @ Wake Forest (ACCN)
9:00 PM EST: Colorado @ Washington (P12N)
Implications here:
- UCLA’s playoff chances aren’t able to rise from the ashes. Arizona was and is too bad. But USC, Oregon, and Utah have a lot to gain from Washington and Oregon State continuing to climb in the rankings. Part of this is practical: A better best win or worst loss is good. Part of it too, though, is narrative. If the Pac-12 finishes with six teams in the top twenty and five in the top fifteen, it’s going to be taken seriously, rightly or wrongly (I would argue a mix, but it deserves it way more than the ACC, so I’ll argue that quietly if it comes to pass).
- Notre Dame is a primary character for a hypothetical 11-1 Ohio State or a hypothetical 12-1 Clemson or UNC. They also play USC next weekend, giving USC some mixed incentives. On one hand, USC isn’t guaranteed to jump into the top four if they do finish 12-1, so they need all the résumé boosts they can get. On the other, USC could use a more manageable game amidst these tossups, so Notre Dame looking bad could be a good sign.
- The 12-1 TCU that doesn’t win the Big 12 is interesting, and it’s especially interesting if Kansas State barely beats them and is ranked highly. The 12-1 TCU that does win the Big 12 is straightforward but still interesting, and smacking a top-ten Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship could be really, really helpful in that scenario. Also: Texas is rated highly by almost all rating systems. Getting them back into the top 25 would help a Horned Frog out, as would keeping Oklahoma State (Bedlam alert) in the committee’s focus.
- The ACC title pair has a lot to gain from Florida State continuing its run. UNC didn’t play them, but there’s a transitive effect there, and Clemson beat them on the road, which looks better and better with time. For LSU, who lost to FSU, the tie-in is also clear and direct. Elsewhere in the ACC, Clemson’s beaten all four of NC State, Louisville, Wake Forest, and Syracuse, while UNC beat Wake and has yet to play NC State. Both Clemson and UNC could really use a marquee win in addition to the one over the other.
- Finally, there’s an incongruity between how Penn State is ranked and how Penn State seems to be viewed by the committee (and the discourse). Michigan’s trouncing of Penn State says a lot more than it’s being allowed to say, and maybe them finishing the year ranked sixth (or something up there) will change things.
The Fun Ones
Conference by conference, where additional fun can be found:
11:00 AM EST: Navy @ UCF (ESPN2)
4:00 PM EST: Cincinnati @ Temple (ESPNU)
The AAC race is a good one, and in light of the committee’s decision to (rather inexplicably) shower these teams with love, it’s also clearly the consequential one for that final Cotton Bowl spot. Which isn’t nothing! A big opportunity awaits the winner of the Tulane/Cincinnati/UCF whirlpool, one in which UCF holds head-to-head advantages over each of the others but Tulane and Cincy don’t play until Friday.
12:00 PM EST: Wisconsin @ Nebraska (ESPN)
12:00 PM EST: Northwestern @ Purdue (FS1)
4:00 PM EST: Iowa @ Minnesota (FOX)
The Big Ten West matters in one way, which is that its winner will play Ohio State or Michigan in what’s likely to be a formality in Indianapolis. In the other way, though, it matters because these teams are begrudging rivals with one another, and the five-way race between Purdue, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, and Wisconsin for the division crown is good entertainment partially because the teams involved are so uninspiring. If you like to laugh at football, watch the Big Ten West.
7:30 PM EST: Mississippi @ Arkansas (SECN)
And, finally, two respectable SEC foes go at it in Fayetteville. Not a ton of implications here for LSU and Alabama, and LSU and Alabama are fringe candidates anyway, but it’s a good game, and it has some contained chaos potential, with each team a bit wild and now holding very little to lose.
**
The inventory:
- 2 Big Ones
- 1 Good One
- 5 Tricky Ones
- 3 Business Ones
- 10 Ones that Kind of Matter
- 6 Fun Ones
That’s 27 games of note for our Saturday ahead. Should be enough to keep us all busy.
