Has there ever been a bigger Saturday in college basketball? Dreamers say no. Dreamers say today is the biggest of days. Dreamers say today is the day we were born to watch on television while feverishly checking this blog post to make sure we’re abreast of the NIT implications of every game in front of our eyes.
Let’s get it all out there.
We’re going conference by conference again, but we will not hit every conference, partially because the Sun Belt and the ASUN finished league play last night and partially because that was an exhausting process last week and I want to reserve the right to ignore the NEC. (Actually, the NEC’s already clinched, so…Shit! There I go, doing it again.)
We start with the conference of our primary target:
ACC
- 12:00 PM EST: Clemson @ NC State (ESPN+)
- 5:00 PM EST: Syracuse @ Pitt (ACCN)
- 6:00 PM EST: Virginia @ UNC (ESPN)
- 7:00 PM EST: Notre Dame @ Wake Forest (ACCN)
- 8:00 PM EST: Virginia Tech @ Duke (ESPN)
The way we see it, nine ACC teams can tell themselves right now that they have an NIT chance. One of those is probably wrong, but they don’t play today anyway. That leaves eight, from unlikely (Duke) to likely (Virginia Tech) to unlikely again (Syracuse). Of those eight, we have three head-to-heads today, plus appearances by Mike Brey and Tony Bennett.
The situation with UNC is as follows: We want them in the NIT. We don’t think they want them in the NIT. This is a common dynamic in our lives. Lives? Yes, lives. No more questions.
UNC could probably afford to win this game, but it would complicate matters. We don’t want them to win it. We want them to lose it. We want them to lose this game, and then it’s not so important what they do against Florida State and Duke. Duke has an outside NIT shot of its own (lose out, basically, and do it with style), so that should only move the needle if the Tar Heels also beat UVA.
What does UNC need to do to lose? They’ve shown it all year. Miss open looks. That’s it! That’s the recipe. Just miss open looks.
Other implications: Virginia Tech could win and still be in our realm, Wake Forest can’t afford to lose, Syracuse needs wins and Pitt needs losses, ditto Clemson/NC State.
Big Ten
- 12:00 PM EST: Michigan State @ Iowa (ESPN)
- 3:30 PM EST: Minnesota @ Nebraska (BTN)
Wisconsin plays tomorrow.
Iowa’s sneaking around our hedges right now, and we’re pretending we don’t see them. Fran McCaffery is a known NIT respecter, and he might be completely furious when he finds out its Final Four isn’t in New York City anymore, but that could also conceivably be good for the NIT. Come on down, Iowa. You’re closer than it feels.
Nebraska’s on .500 watch. They’re 14–14 right now, but after this one they host Michigan State, visit Iowa, and most likely open the Big Ten Tournament against Ohio State. The nice thing about winning two of the next three is that they wouldn’t have to win two Big Ten Tournament games to hit .500. They wouldn’t even need to win one. Lose two of three, though, and they’ll need to beat Ohio State and someone like Michigan State. Can’t look ahead, but looking ahead it gets dicey, so the Huskers better win today.
Big 12
- 12:00 PM EST: TCU @ Texas Tech (ESPN2)
- 12:00 PM EST: Oklahoma @ Iowa State (ESPNU)
Oklahoma is in much worse position than Nebraska with this .500 thing, which is to say they’re two games under even right now and their remaining path is harder. They’re better than Nebraska, but it doesn’t make up for it. Last stand stuff for Porter Moser these days.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, might want to lose? What a shift. The Red Raiders are hot as hell, winners of four straight and six of eight. They’ve done so much that winning two of their next three might put them out of our reach. Real Icarus shit. That’s why you don’t build your wings out of wax.
SEC
- 1:00 PM EST: Missouri @ Georgia (SECN)
- 3:30 PM EST: Texas A&M @ Mississippi State (SECN)
- 4:00 PM EST: Auburn @ Kentucky (CBS)
- 6:00 PM EST: Florida @ Vanderbilt (ESPN2)
There’s a lot going on here, but first, let us just say that this is probably goodbye to Kentucky. It was a brief, dazzling romance, but it wasn’t meant to last. Just…just know we had fun, Cats. No hard feelings. And hey—we’ll be here.
Mississippi State plays our old friend Buzz Williams (there’s so much NIT turnover year to year that we call pretty much any friend an old one), the Bulldogs looking to get off the bubble, and I’ll let you decide which direction they want to go. Mizzou needs losses, Georgia probably doesn’t have a chance but thinks it does, Vanderbilt needs wins and Florida should be safe but also might be in freefall right now and is suddenly at risk of finishing below .500. They don’t full-on need to win this to stay alive, but I don’t think they’ll be in Monday’s bracket if they lose. Chomp chomp, and whatnot.
Big East
- 12:00 PM EST: Creighton @ Villanova (FOX)
- 12:00 PM EST: UConn @ St. John’s (CBS)
Tons of NBA scouts will reportedly be in the building for Creighton/Villanova, and we can only assume it’s because they want to watch good basketball. With Tuesday’s win in the Cintas Center, the Wildcats have put the NIT on the table. One more upset today and they’ll be favored to at least finish .500, which for a team like this one should be good enough to explore our fertile lands.
St. John’s is a pretty simple bottom-bubble team, but this would be a nice win, and it would be really funny if UConn got swept by St. John’s.
Pac-12
- 2:00 PM EST: Arizona State @ Arizona (CBS)
- 5:00 PM EST: Washington State @ Cal (P12N)
- 8:00 PM EST: USC @ Utah (ESPNU)
- 10:00 PM EST: Oregon @ Oregon State (P12N)
This is a don’t–mess–with–it game for Arizona State, and for USC? It’s a definitely–do–mess–with–it. Come on, Andy. Come on back here. Let us kick your ass.
Washington State’s hanging around, trying to make that last-second push. Oregon has little to gain today and a lot to lose, which is perfect for a team just barely comfortably on our side of the bubble.
Mountain West
- 7:00 PM EST: Boise State @ San Jose State (NBCSBA)
- 10:00 PM EST: San Diego State @ New Mexico (CBSSN)
NBC Sports Bay Area has been getting a lot of these mid-major games.
New Mexico’s on our bubble, and a win wouldn’t be the worst thing, coming at home, but it would be bad. Boise State isn’t on our bubble, and this wouldn’t get them there, but it could resurrect Tim Miles’s NIT shot. We’ll always hope on Tim Miles.
WCC
- 10:00 PM EST: Santa Clara @ San Diego (WCCN)
- 10:30 PM EST: Loyola Marymount @ Pepperdine (Bally Sports SoCal)
Santa Clara’s grappling for NIT position, Loyola Marymount’s trying desperately to get in the mix.
Conference USA
- 2:00 PM EST: UTEP @ FAU (ESPN+)
- 8:00 PM EST: UAB @ Western Kentucky (CBSSN)
You want an NIT sleeper? Florida Atlantic. The Owls have a good résumé but not a great one, and one bad loss would go a long, long way. Even a medium loss could do it in the right circumstances. We want a bad one for them, though.
And speaking of losses: UAB plays a tough one in Bowling Green.
WAC
- 5:30 PM EST: Southern Utah @ Sam Houston State (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian (ESPN+)
The biggest shock in the college basketball world right now? Southern Utah has reentered the WAC race.
Utah Valley leads Southern Utah and Sam Houston State by a game each, there are a few games to play, UVU and SHSU are in the bottom range of at-large territory.
Do with that what you will.
Atlantic 10
- 6:00 PM EST: George Mason @ Dayton (ESPNU)
- 6:00 PM EST: Loyola @ Saint Louis (CBSSN)
SLU can’t afford this loss, Dayton can’t really afford it either. Also, Dayton’s trying to get back within a game of VCU.
Ivy League
- 2:00 PM EST: Princeton @ Harvard (ESPN+)
- 2:00 PM EST: Dartmouth @ Penn (ESPN+)
- 7:00 PM EST: Cornell @ Yale (ESPN+)
It’s a three-way tie between Yale, Penn, and Princeton right now, and I’m pretty confident Yale holds the tiebreaker (also pretty confident Penn would hold a hypothetical head-to-head over Princeton if that came to pass). Big ones all over the place. Also: Can we appreciate that the A-10 and the Ivy League are next to each other in KenPom’s conference rankings? Well done by both.
Summit League
- 3:00 PM EST: Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State (Jackrabbits All-Access)
Oral Roberts could finish off the undefeated Summit League season here. Catch it only (as far as we know) on Jackrabbits All-Access.
MAC
- 2:00 PM EST: Buffalo @ Toledo (ESPN3)
- 5:00 PM EST: Kent State @ Bowling Green (ESPN3)
We’ve got ourselves a ballgame in the MAC, where Toledo has grabbed a one-game lead over the Golden Flashes but doesn’t hold the tiebreaker. Lot of Rust Belt teams looking for auto-bids this year. They know how fun Vegas can be. There’s a reason there are more flights to Nevada from Cleveland than from any other airport in the country.
CAA
- 12:00 PM EST: Stony Brook @ College of Charleston (CBSSN)
- 2:00 PM EST: Northeastern @ Hofstra (FloHoops)
Hofstra takes the CAA title with a win. If they lose and Charleston wins, it goes to Charleston. If they lose and Charleston loses, they get it again.
Big West
- 10:00 PM EST: UC-Irvine @ Hawaii (ESPN2)
- 10:00 PM EST: UC-Santa Barbara @ UC-San Diego (ESPN+)
The Big West isn’t over.
Right now, UCI leads UC-Riverside by half a game and UCSB by a full game. Hawaii’s also pretty good, so this could get downright messy, especially since Hawaii’s only two games back of Irvine themselves right now. Props to ESPN for getting these guys on basic cable.
Big Sky
- 8:00 PM EST: Eastern Washington @ Idaho State (ESPN+)
EWU’s trying to go undefeated in conference. Two games away.
SoCon
- 2:00 PM EST: Furman @ Samford (CBSSN)
Woo!!!!!!!
(That’s the sound I make when the SoCon, where Samford leads Furman and UNCG by a game each, could devolve into a three-way tie.)
It sounds like (and credit to Twitter user Trilly Donovan for both this and the Horizon League) UNCG has no actual chance at the conference title, for NIT purposes. It’s between Furman and Samford. Winner takes it all.
Horizon League
- 7:00 PM EST: Youngstown State @ IUPUI (ESPN+)
- 8:00 PM EST: Cleveland State @ Milwaukee (ESPN+)
Similar situation here, where Northern Kentucky could get into a hypothetical four-way tie but wouldn’t win it. It’s down to Youngstown State (who wins with a win), Cleveland State (who wins with a win and a Youngstown loss), and—out of nowhere—Milwaukee (who wins with a win and a Youngstown loss). So it could become winner take all, but first, it’s winner take it if winner is Youngstown State. Got all that?
MEAC
- 4:00 PM EST: Howard @ NC Central (NCCUSN)
- 4:00 PM EST: Norfolk State @ South Carolina State (there’s a YouTube live stream)
Howard leads Norfolk by a game, but there’s time left. Norfolk remains the favorite. For now.
Southland
- 5:30 PM EST: Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (ESPN+)
Look. I’ve clearly gone to a lot of trouble to figure out what’s happening in most of these leagues, out of love for the NIT. With this one? I’m not going to look into who each of these teams play next. They’re tied right now, they each have one game after this one, I’m gonna say the winner probably wins the Southland. We good with that? Thank you.
SWAC
- 4:00 PM EST: Grambling State @ Florida A&M (untelevised?)
- 5:00 PM EST: Prairie View A&M @ Alcorn State (untelevised)
Alcorn leads Grambling by a game. Not seeing even a YouTube stream for these ones.
**
Ok. That’s a lot happening. The good news is, it only gets wilder from here.
Just kidding.
Today’s probably the wildest day.
Conference tournaments are way more straightforward, and those start to start on Monday.
See you guys around.
