Our NIT Bracketology is updated, and we kind of don’t know what’s going on. We think it’s going to be a 16-team tournament, but we don’t know. We think it’s going to be fully in New York, but we don’t know. There are some NET oddities and our model doesn’t know how the committee will deal with them, because we don’t know how the committee will deal with them.
Here, though, is the NITuation, still (for the most part) assuming a 32-team field, and with our model treating NET normally (there’s more from Joe on the site today about the NET proxy situation, which should now be resolved, but he mentioned the other tournament in his writeup so I’m not linking to it):
Movin’ Out (Anthony’s Song): Colorado State, Boise State, Drake, Providence, Michigan State, Colgate, Northeastern (auto-bid), South Dakota (auto-bid)
We lost Sparty. They’ve fallen beneath us. There are only so many losses they’re allowed to take.
Elsewhere, Colorado State, Boise State, and Colgate all got yanked up out of our reach by NET, as our model was told, “Uhh, hey model, we accidentally have been giving you the wrong NET numbers for a week and a half and here are a bunch of teams NET isn’t built to deal with. Good luck!”
Providence lost at UConn, which combined with our model correcting its impression of NET’s impressions to drag the Friars down out of the field.
Drake beat Loyola, pushing the former out of our reach. The latter was already gone.
Northeastern dropped one to Towson, taking them out of CAA favoritehood. Same story for South Dakota in the Summit League, as they finished off getting swept by North Dakota.
Moving In: SMU, Stanford, Penn State, Georgia, Navy, James Madison (auto-bid), Stephen F. Austin (auto-bid), Wagner (auto-bid)
JMU moves into Northeastern’s spot. Stephen F. Austin and Wagner replace South Dakota and Colgate. SMU, Stanford, and Penn State all drop back in (nice loss to Nebraska, Nittany Lions).
Navy’s a weird one here, moving in on NET’s love of the Patriot League. The Midshipmen are 11-2…couldn’t you see the NIT committee taking them if they keep keeping on? Beat Georgetown at Georgetown, which even this year is a great win for a low-major.
For Georgia, the movement was more regular. They beat Mizzou by ten. I don’t have the energy to find a Tom Crean joke for this situation.
Teams on NIT Turf Who Are Too Likely to Win Their Conference Tournament
Saint Louis (would be a 1-seed). Marshall (would be a 5-seed).
The Sixteen
If the tournament’s sixteen teams big, here are the projected sixteen, in order:
1. SMU
2. Stanford
3. Penn State
4. UConn
5. Western Kentucky
6. Richmond
7. Belmont
8. Utah State
9. Wichita State
10. Mississippi
11. Memphis
12. Georgia Tech
13. Saint Mary’s
14. UC-Santa Barbara
15. Syracuse
16. Winthrop
No complaints.
The Next in Line:
If the tournament is indeed 16 teams, here’s your bubble, from closest to close:
St. John’s
Toledo
Marshall
Duke
Louisiana Tech
Notre Dame
Georgia
Navy
North Texas
Wright State
TCU
Abilene Christian
With a bonus two of Providence and Utah, since some of those are conference tournament favorites.
On the High Side:
From closest to close, teams projected to overshoot the NIT:
North Carolina
Indiana
Boise State
Xavier
Oregon
UCLA
Seton Hall
Drake
Colgate
Colorado State
Maryland
Minnesota
With a bonus St. Bonaventure since Colgate’s probably missing out as an other tournament auto-bid.
***
And that’s the NITuation.
Other notes for today:
- As was said, Georgia beat Mizzou by ten. Still don’t have a joke.
- St. John’s beat Xavier at home. Boon for the Big East. UConn avenged that Providence loss. Terror for the Big East.
- Michigan State’s loss, along with the possibility of a 16-team tournament, has us running out of bluebloods. Thankfully, Indiana and UNC are knocking on our door.
- Rhode Island beat Dayton in two overtimes and neither of them so much as appeared in the NITuation. All that work for nothing.
- Maryland lost to Nebraska. Idiots.
- Speaking of Indiana, they host Minnesota tonight in a big ol’ bubble bonzanza in Bloomington.
- Speaking of big ol’ bubble bonanzas, there’s one in Boise too! Utah State in town.
- Not to be outdone, Richmond (the city) is hosting a one-for-the-ages between Richmond (the school) and VCU. Can’t wait.
- NC State visits Pitt, both trying to climb back into the picture with a whole lot of work to do. Duke visits Wake Forest, who’s definitely saying “Well, well, well…”
- Remember Kentucky? They might be toast. But in case they’re not, they visit Vanderbilt tonight.
- A few others to keep an eye on: UNC hosts Northeastern. Wagner’s visiting Mount St. Mary’s. Furman hosts Samford. Drake’s on the road against Northern Iowa.
Bona NIT.
