What’s going on here? Read this post. Want more trade values? Here they are for deals headlined by Luis Castillo, Andrew Benintendi, Carlos Santana, and Chris Martin.
Every big (or medium) trade completed yesterday, August 1st. We’ll try to get through all the minor ones as well down the line, but we want to stay on top of the most significant moves day over day. Credit to FanGraphs for virtually all data and some methodology.
The Josh Hader Trade
Padres Receive: Josh Hader
Brewers Receive: Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, Robert Gasser, Esteury Ruiz
Hader rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.7
Hader rest-of-season salary: $3.7M
Hader rest-of-contract projected WAR: 2.1
Hader rest-of-contract projected salary: $10.6M
Padres luxury tax impact: $0.3M
Rogers rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.5
Rogers rest-of-season salary: $0.2M (Twins covered most in trade sending Rogers to SD)
Lamet rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.0
Lamet rest-of-season salary: $1.6M
Lamet rest-of-contract projected WAR: 0.6
Lamet rest-of-contract projected salary: $0.7M
Gasser value: $1M (40 FV pitcher)
Ruiz value: $0.5M (35+ FV position player)
Present value: Padres net $1.8M/0.2 WAR
Future value: Padres net -$0.1M/0.0 WAR, Brewers net -$0.2M/0.0 WAR
Commentary: Whew. This is a doozy. Technicalities below, but what this deal really comes down to for the Brewers is whether the gap between Hader and Rogers this year (and the eventual impact it has, as these are high-leverage arms which were dealt) plus the absence of Hader next year are worth Gasser, Ruiz, and Lamet in future value. With that, then, a lot seems to hinge on whether the Brewers can successfully reclaim Lamet from the scrap heap and how well they can develop Gasser. Given the Brewers’ ability to develop pitchers, Gasser may be appreciating right now as an asset just by being in their system, and a jump to 40+ would put this closer to a future wash. Also, MLB Pipeline is much higher on both Gasser and Ruiz than FanGraphs is, so this is in part a matter of source. Were MLB Pipeline incorporated into our method, this would likely look like a big future value winner for Milwaukee, or at least not a net future value loss.
The first technicality: The luxury tax thing is a complexity, so let’s go through that first. The nominal value of a 30% tax on their estimated overage is what we’ve listed, but really, this is a future impact, and it’s one that’s hard to calculate: It’s going to be more expensive now if the Padres decide they want to keep going above the luxury tax (and they’re closer to the $20M overage this year, which kicks in new penalties, but that may still be unlikely even with Juan Soto in their sights). This could dissuade them from certain levels of aggression in free agency, or persuade them to trade other prospects to clear a salary. Honestly, I don’t think it’s going to be that impactful. Look at how small the luxury tax impact is this year. Multiplying that by 1.67x next year, to get from a 30% tax to a 50% tax if they had an identical overage, still isn’t going to be gigantic. But it’s sure an interesting wrinkle.
Another technicality: Hader’s year-over-year fWAR’s been relatively flat through his career, so his projection for next year is based on continued flatness there. Notably, because of some struggles this year, his arbitration salary is currently projected to drop next season. Without further research, I don’t know how likely that actually is.
Yet another: Lamet’s injury, switch from starting to relief, and struggles have his production next year uncertain. Given the projection he’s worth just the league minimum in arbitration (as a replacement-level player this year), and therefore that the Brewers non-tender him, we’re tempted to zero this out, but instead we’re projecting him to match his 2021 fWAR, which lies in between 2020’s and this year’s.
The Frankie Montas Trade
Yankees Receive: Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino
A’s Receive: Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, JP Sears, Cooper Bowman
Montas rest-of-season projected WAR: 1.0
Montas rest-of-season salary: $1.7M
Montas rest-of-contract projected WAR: 3.3
Montas rest-of-contract projected salary: $10.7M
Trivino rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.0
Trivino rest-of-season salary: $1.0M
Trivino rest-of-contract projected WAR: 0.0
Trivino rest-of-contract projected salary: $0.7M
Waldichuk value: $21M (50 FV pitcher)
Medina value: $21M (50 FV pitcher)
Sears value: $1M (40 FV pitcher)
Bowman value: $0 (sub-35+ FV position player)
Present value: Yankees net $9.0M/1.0 WAR
Future value: A’s net $27.4M/3.0 WAR
Commentary: The Yankees gave up a lot, but in Montas, they get a lot back. Trivino’s more of a lottery ticket at this stage—we didn’t assign him more than a year of future salary, since he’s already so close to replacement level and next year he’ll be on the wrong side of 30. The future value/present value ratio isn’t as stark as it was with the Castillo trade, but it’s up there, and that’s with Trivino pulling it up instead of down, which is a questionable stance by our model.
The Trey Mancini Trade
Astros Receive: Trey Mancini, Jayden Murray
Rays Receive: Jose Siri
Orioles Receive: Seth Johnson, Chayce McDermott
Mancini rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.5
Mancini rest-of-season salary: $2.6M
Siri rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.8
Siri rest-of-season salary: $0.2M
Siri future value: $6M (see commentary below)
Murray value: $3M (40+ FV pitcher)
Johnson value: $4M (45 FV pitcher)
McDermott value: $1M (40 FV pitcher)
Present value: Rays net $7.2M/0.8 WAR, Astros net -$2.7M/-0.3 WAR, Orioles net -$4.5M/-0.5 WAR
Future value: Orioles net $7.6M/0.8 WAR, Rays net -$1.2M/-0.1 WAR, Astros net -$6.4M/-0.7 WAR
Commentary: Siri—blocked in Houston but now a key player for Tampa Bay—may end up being the big prize here. He was once rated as highly as a 50 FV prospect on FanGraphs, and while he graduated the Reds’ system at 40 FV, we’ve valued him as a 45 FV guy based on his impressive minor league offensive numbers with Houston and his impressive major league defense. To be honest, 45 FV may be too low. If you were to just extrapolate FanGraphs’s rest-of-season projection for him over the next four years, he comes out extraordinarily valuable. His value being higher with the Rays than with the Astros, due to role, does mess up our calculation a bit, but this is a great trade for Tampa Bay, a good one for the Orioles, and a fine one for the Astros, at least all on paper.
The José Quintana Trade
Cardinals Receive: José Quintana, Chris Stratton
Pirates Receive: Johan Oviedo, Malcom Nunez
Quintana rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.6
Quintana rest-of-season salary: $0.7M
Stratton rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.0
Stratton rest-of-season salary: $0.9M
Stratton rest-of-contract projected WAR: 0.0
Stratton rest-of-contract projected salary: $2.9M
Oviedo rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.1
Oviedo rest-of-season salary: $0.2M
Oviedo future value: $4M (recent 45 FV pitcher)
Nunez value: $2M (40 FV position player)
Present value: Cardinals net $4.5M/0.5 WAR
Future value: Pirates net $10.3M/1.1 WAR
Commentary: Oviedo is a recent farm system graduate, but he effectively joins a loaded farm system in Pittsburgh. In return, the Cardinals get one of the best starters on the market, at least measured by 2022 performance to date, and they get Stratton—a competent reliever whose aging is a little uncertain for next year—to go with him.
The Christian Vázquez Trade
Astros Receive: Christian Vázquez
Red Sox Receive: Enmanuel Valdez, Wilyer Abreu
Vázquez rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.6
Vázquez rest-of-season salary: $2.3M
Abreu value: $0.5M (35+ FV position player)
Valdez value: 0.0 (sub-35+ FV position player)
Present value: Astros net $5.4M/0.6 WAR
Future value: Red Sox net $2.8M/0.3 WAR
Commentary: The Red Sox may be higher on Valdez than FanGraphs is, but it seems like they could have gotten more for Vázquez, potentially even on their own not-playoff-eliminated team.
The Scott Effross Trade
Yankees Receive: Scott Effross
Cubs Receive: Hayden Wesneski
Effross rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.2
Effross rest-of-season salary: $0.2M
Effross rest-of-contract projected WAR: 1.3
Effross rest-of-contract projected salary: $3.2M
Wesneski value: $3M (40+ FV pitcher)
Present value: Yankees net $1.8M/0.2 WAR
Future value: Yankees net $5.3M/0.6 WAR
Commentary: I really liked this trade for the Cubs before I did the math. The math relies on FanGraphs’s projection that Effross will be worth 0.2 fWAR over the rest of this year, which extrapolates to a 0.6-fWAR reliever over a full season. Since he’s currently in his prime (and has two prime years left, followed by one year of decline and then—we assumed—a non-tender as his median route forward), that comes out to a median projected WAR of 1.3, which Wesneski, though a good prospect, doesn’t quite match. Realistically, the Cubs must value Wesneski more highly than FanGraphs does, or they may view the cost here as worthwhile given their need for starting pitching next year and beyond.
The Jake Odorizzi/Will Smith Trade
Atlanta Receives: Jake Odorizzi
Astros Receive: Will Smith
Odorizzi rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.4
Odorizzi rest-of-season salary: $2.3M
Odorizzi rest-of-contract projected WAR: 0.9
Odorizzi rest-of-contract projected salary: $12.5M
Smith rest-of-season projected WAR: 0.0
Smith rest-of-season salary: $5.6M
Smith buyout: $1M
Present value: Atlanta nets $3.6M/0.4 WAR
Future value: Astros net $0.1M/0.0 WAR
Commentary: We assumed Odorizzi will pick up his 2023 player option, and that Atlanta will not buy him out, based on the option paying him more per our projected WAR (derived from averaging his projected 2021-22 fWAR and subtracting 0.5) than the market rate and the net cost of buying him out vs. keeping him coming in less than the market rate. Might Atlanta buy him out? Yes, but the cost comes out comparably that way, and they could also conceivably trade the guy this offseason. We assumed the Astros will buy out Smith after the season. We assumed Odorizzi will hit 100 innings but not 110. (Thank you to MLB Trade Rumors for the contract breakdowns on this.) Overall, it’s the Astros trading from a strength to add some bullpen depth, and while they were maybe a little expensive with it, if they figure Smith back out it could be a consequential pickup.
