The definition of “upset” isn’t an uncommon topic in college sports, where rankings and the odds are sometimes, well, at odds. Last weekend, Wisconsin was favored to beat Notre Dame. Wisconsin was also ranked behind Notre Dame. Some folks made a fuss.
A less common topic is when there’s a big dropoff in quality after the top grouping of teams, making a matchup a “top ten” matchup by definition despite a big, big line—a matchup where the favorite is so good that you could take any team, any legitimate top ten team, and they’d be a multi-score favorite. We’ve got one of those this week. We’ve almost got two. Arkansas goes to Georgia currently an 18.5-point underdog. Mississippi goes to Alabama currently a 14.5-point underdog. Arkansas and Mississippi each have a legitimate claim to a top ten ranking. Alabama and Georgia are just too much better than the rest for the rankings to properly reflect it.
Or so we think.
This week’s big games, what the contenders and the factors are up to, and the other fun ones:
The Big Ones
Arkansas @ Georgia – 12:00 PM EDT, ESPN
Mississippi @ Alabama – 3:30 PM EDT, CBS
The story is the same in each of these, more or less. Georgia and Alabama can each probably afford a loss, but a loss would nonetheless rock their world. Arkansas and Mississippi have nothing to lose, and the pair is currently vying for the rights to title of second-best in the SEC West, something that could end up especially meaningful for Mississippi, whose SEC East opponents this year are Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Could Lane Kiffin make the playoff at 11-1? Yes. Would he? I don’t know.
(Still no model from us—continuing to validate data—but my back-of-the-envelope math has Georgia and Alabama each something like 80% likely to make the playoff, because those are somewhere around the odds they each finish 12-1 or better. I’d put Arkansas and Mississippi each in the single digits.)
Cincinnati @ Notre Dame – 2:30 PM EDT, NBC
Could a 13-0 Cincinnati make the playoff? Could a 12-0 Notre Dame miss it? The former is, of course, much more likely than the latter, but a 13-0 Cincy/11-1 ND scenario is both 1) rather realistic and 2) entirely unprecedented. Notre Dame, in that scenario, would almost certainly be a top ten team, giving Cincinnati a road win over a top ten team to go with potentially another two ranked wins from their conference (and mayyyybe some help from Indiana, though that’s looking like a 6-6 team right now). Notre Dame’s probably in single-digit territory for playoff probability still, but with a win, that would jump to double digits. Cincinnati’s somewhere in single digits, but we have little idea where. Their path might be too narrow.
Anyway, this might be the biggest game of the week. And that’s saying a lot this week.
Contenders, Factors
Beyond Alabama and Georgia, there are three teams we’d call College Football Playoff contenders right now. All three play in the 3:30 PM EDT slot, and all three are on the road. Oregon’s an eight-point favorite at Stanford. Oklahoma’s a 10.5-point favorite in Manhattan, Kansas. Ohio State’s supposed to win by 15 at Rutgers. There are legitimate doubts about all three of these teams, and Ohio State’s already lost once, but this is what they’re up to. This is their Clemson-goes-to-NC-State equivalent. They’ll probably be fine, but if they aren’t, well…look out below.
On the “factor” side, beyond ND and Cincy we have a trio of Big Ten schools left—Iowa, Penn State, Michigan—plus Florida (as a reminder—our working definition of a “factor” is a team that has the playoff path and is estimated to be good enough that it’s not outrageous to think they could make the playoff; whereas a contender’s a team it’s not outrageous to think will make the playoff). We’ll get to Iowa, Michigan, and Florida in the next section, but Penn State hosts Indiana Saturday night in a game that shouldn’t give them too much trouble.
Sixteen More Fun Ones
It starts tonight!
Virginia @ Miami – Thursday, 7:30 PM EDT; ESPN
“Miami” is one answer to, “Who’s the ACC coastal favorite?” which means Miami could be one Clemson foible away from being the answer to, “Who’s the ACC favorite?” If this weren’t on Thursday night, we wouldn’t tune in, but it’s on Thursday night! You can watch it without missing any other college football!
Iowa @ Maryland – Friday, 8:00 PM EDT; FS1
BYU @ Utah State – Friday, 9:00 PM EDT; CBSSN
More good action tomorrow. Maryland has yet to lose, Iowa’s only favored by a field goal, I would assume we’ll be maxing out college-football-environment quality in College Park.
Starting shortly after, BYU takes their Treat us like Notre Dame! case through Logan, where a loss is very possible. Single-digit favorites.
Michigan @ Wisconsin – 12:00 PM EDT, FOX
Could Michigan be better than Ohio State? It’s not impossible. But a more pressing concern is getting through a Wisconsin team that’s looked awful but can be expected to put up a fight in Madison, where they’re evidently favored? Oh wow. I didn’t realize that. Ok. Hmm. Gonna have to give that a look.
Florida @ Kentucky – 6:00 PM EDT, ESPN
Kentucky, like Maryland, has yet to lose. Florida, like Michigan, is hoping to take down their division rival and make a playoff case. Single-digit favorite.
Arizona State @ UCLA – 10:30 PM EDT, FS1
The Pac-12 South Championship? It’s too early to call it that, but…possibly.
Louisville @ Wake Forest – 12:30 PM EDT, ESPN3
Boston College @ Clemson – 7:30 PM EDT, ACC Network
Wake Forest and Boston College have yet to lose, and while BC’s a big ol’ underdog against Clemson, we’ll celebrate them while they’re here. If Boston College beats Clemson, the chaos is really on in the ACC. For Wake Forest, a single-digit favorite, beating Louisville is probable but not any cause for comfort.
Texas @ TCU – 12:00 PM EDT, ABC
Baylor @ Oklahoma State – 7:00 PM EDT, ESPN2
In the Big 12, Baylor and Oklahoma State show off their Actually, we don’t score that much anymore lifestyle. Each is undefeated, Oklahoma looks vulnerable, keep an eye on them both; and while Texas and TCU each have a loss, neither is out of the running for a conference title game appearance, with TCU having made a habit of fueling Longhorn self-loathing this past decade.
Auburn @ LSU – 9:00 PM EDT, ESPN
Fresno State @ Hawaii – 11:00 PM EDT, CBSSN
These have virtually no playoff implications, but each could be fun football.
North Dakota State @ North Dakota – 3:00 PM EDT, ESPN+
James Madison @ New Hampshire – 3:30 PM EDT, ??
Sam Houston State vs. Stephen F. Austin – 5:00 PM EDT, ESPN+
Montana @ Eastern Washington – 10:30 PM EDT, ESPN2
And in the FCS ranks, we’ve got a bunch of big matchups, including SHSU and SFA playing at the Texans’ stadium. The audacity.
Viewing Schedule
Tonight and tomorrow are straightforward. On Saturday, I’d personally go: Athens-then-Madison in the opening slot, South Bend in the afternoon, Lexington-then-maybe-Stillwater in primetime, Los Angeles after dark. Be prepared to toggle, though.
