We’ll still have our standard weekly preview on Friday, but what could be the biggest game of the Sun Belt regular season is happening tonight between Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette, and there’s about a one-in-one-thousand chance it could affect the playoff race.
All season, we’ve been keeping track of which Group of Five teams make the playoff field in any of our model’s 1,000 weekly simulations. We do this not so much because we think these teams are legitimate playoff hopefuls (if something is 0.1% likely to happen, it isn’t likely to happen), but because they help teach us two things: which Group of Five teams have the best chance of earning the group’s spot in a New Year’s Six bowl, and what would have to happen for a Group of Five team to ever make the playoff in its current form.
Overall, the teams making the field occasionally in these simulations have been ones we’d expect: Boise State, UCF (until they lost twice), assorted non-UCF teams in the AAC hoping for the league to wind up with more Top 25 squads than the ACC. But a surprising conference we’ve seen dump teams in here has been the Sun Belt. And it hasn’t just been a one-off thing.
Two weeks ago, Appalachian State made the field three times. Last week, Louisiana-Lafayette made the field once. This week, the Mountaineers were back one time.
To be clear once more, these 0.3% and 0.1% possibilities of making the playoff are nothing worth taking too seriously. An undefeated Appalachian State would need unfathomable chaos unleashed to even qualify for the playoff discussion. A one-loss Louisiana-Lafayette might not have a chance in any universe. We wouldn’t treat Minnesota (0.1% likely to make the playoff) playing Iowa (0.3% likely) as a can’t-miss game. But Minnesota playing Iowa wouldn’t have a direct impact on one of the six biggest bowl games of the year. Tonight’s game in Lafayette does. And neither Minnesota nor Iowa is a curiosity that can teach us about the way the College Football Playoff committee evaluates teams. Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette are.
The two teams playing tonight aren’t in the same division, which means tonight’s game could very possibly be just a prelude to an eventual rematch of last year’s Sun Belt Championship in two months’ time. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t important. Louisiana-Lafayette becomes nearly the conference favorite with a win, jumping from 35.9% likely to win the league to 43.2% likely (in this case, that 43.2% means that ULL wins the Sun Belt in 43.2% of simulations in which they also win tonight—a number that doesn’t account for other teams’ results this week or changes in the aggregate ratings our model uses to predict games). With a loss, they drop to 28.3% likely, and with primary West Division competitor Arkansas State holding the advantages of not playing Appalachian State in the regular season and hosting the Ragin’ Cajuns at home next week, ULL’s favorite-hood to make the conference championship game becomes dicey. For Appalachian State, a win propels them from 56.7% likely to win the Sun Belt to 67.0% likely. A loss drops them to 46.8%—still the best odds of anyone, but close enough that changes in the aggregate ratings our model employs could drop them below their growing rivals.
Not only are those some big swings, and not only is it striking to see two teams so clearly in front of their conference this early in the season (the 92.6% probability that one of the Sun Belt’s two most likely champions wins the conference is second only to that of the ACC, where Clemson alone is 89.9% likely to triumph and Virginia grabs its own 5.2% share), but this is also one of the toughest three games on either team’s schedule. And as our model knows, the committee has again and again prioritized the tougher end of teams’ schedules these past five years over the bottom two-thirds or so. If the eventual Sun Belt champion is in the running to be the playoff committee’s top-ranked Group of Five team, it’s going to be judged in part on its best results. Which means if Louisiana-Lafayette can be the only team to beat Appalachian State (who still has a road date with South Carolina on its schedule), and can do it twice to finish 12-1 with its only loss coming to Mississippi State, it will have some shot in hell of making the Cotton Bowl or a similar contest. And if Appalachian State can add a road victory in Lafayette to the one in Chapel Hill that’s already on the ledge, plus possibly the one in Columbia, with an added triumph over the Cajuns in the Sun Belt Championship, its 13-0 could stack up positively against even an undefeated Boise State.
This isn’t to get too far ahead of ourselves. It’s far more likely than not that each of these teams will lose at least once or twice more before the regular season is done. But after tonight, ULL projects to be favored in all its regular season games, and after tonight, Appalachian State projects to be favored against all regular season opponents but South Carolina. They’re only the 48th (Appalachian State) and 58th (Louisiana-Lafayette)-best teams in the FBS according to the ratings we use, but they’re the seventh and ninth-best Group of Five teams (behind five from the AAC and Boise State, plus Utah State in ULL’s case), and aside from that Appalachian State/South Carolina game, they have easier schedules the rest of the way than the other contenders for that New Year’s Six berth.
In short, if you don’t particularly want to watch tonight’s game, you don’t have to. This game won’t impact the national title picture, and it’s more likely than not that it doesn’t even impact the New Year’s Six bowls. But if you’re someone who loves watching Wednesday Night college football, this is probably the most meaningful mid-week game we’ll have all year. And for the players on the field, it’s their biggest game yet by a wide margin.
If you are watching, and you want a preview, here it is:
Appalachian State’s 50.4% likely to win, according to our model’s aggregate ratings. ULL, though, is the two-point Vegas favorite. Each team is better offensively than defensively (App. State has the 11th-best offense by SP+ and the 101st-best defense; ULL’s rank 25th and 87th, respectively). Appalachian State head coach Eliah Drinkwitz is in his first year at the school, trying to continue the shocking ascent of the program Jerry Moore and Scott Satterfield have built into a mid-major power. Louisiana-Lafayette head coach Billy Napier is in his second year, trying to win the program its first solely possessed conference title since 1970, when the team played in something called the Gulf States Conference. Both teams are in the top 25 in rush yards per game, with the Cajuns fifth in the metric and third in rush yards per attempt (Appalachian State is 14th in the latter). Both teams, in other words, should run all over each other. It should be as high-scoring as the 70-point over/under indicates. And while it isn’t a must-win for either, it might feel that way to both.
