Very shortly, Penn State and Ohio State will kick off, and a few hours after that, we’ll know whether it’s still just one playoff spot up for grabs, or if chaos has created a second opening.
Even if it is just the one spot that’s available, there’s a good chance one or more secondary contenders fall today, giving the picture more clarity (at least in the short term). Our model indicates six teams, besides Penn State, have between a 4% and 43% chance of making the playoff. All six of those play today, as do three more who sit below 4% but above the dreaded 0%. The probability that all nine of those teams win is only 19.7%.
Here are the most important games of the day, as far as the playoff picture goes:
Taking Care of Business
Arkansas @ LSU (LSU wins in 99.7% of our model’s 4,000 simulations)
LSU finishes the year with Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Georgia. It’s very possible they’d make the playoff even if they were to lose one of those games: 99.0% likely, in fact. The vast majority of those cases involve a loss to Texas A&M or Georgia, though, so we really don’t know what would happen if the Tigers fell today.
Chances are, we won’t find out.
Staying Alive?
Purdue @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin wins in 94.4% of simulations)
Michigan @ Indiana (Michigan wins in 69.5% of simulations)
Texas @ Baylor (Baylor wins in 65.6% of simulations)
Wisconsin, Michigan, and Baylor all have a playoff probability larger than zero and smaller than three percent. Of those three, Baylor’s is the smallest, at 0.2%, but Michigan’s 0.4% chance makes the least intuitive sense, as the Wolverines’ path to a Big Ten title relies on Penn State losing to Rutgers, among other unlikely things, and even that would leave Jim Harbaugh’s team a two-loss Big Ten champion, likely needing a lot of help to crack the field.
Still, our model says that all three of these teams are alive, so we’ll believe it for now.
Staying Alive.
Western Carolina @ Alabama (Alabama wins in 100.0% of simulations)
Utah @ Arizona (Utah wins in 93.0% of simulations)
Minnesota @ Northwestern (Minnesota wins in 86.4% of simulations)
TCU @ Oklahoma (Oklahoma wins in 86.2% of simulations)
Oregon @ Arizona State (Oregon wins in 81.4% of simulations)
Texas A&M @ Georgia (Georgia wins in 81.3% of simulations)
The likelihood at least one of these six contenders loses is 54.2%. If one does, it could introduce some clarity to the playoff race, but it could also introduce even more uncertainty. It’s more likely to be the former, at least in the short term.
Georgia’s path to the playoff appears to rely on the least subjectivity moving forward: Win the SEC and they’re in. Of course, they could lose today and still win the SEC, but the likelihood of those things happening in conjunction is, for the time being, small. The real point here is that it probably doesn’t matter how exactly Georgia wins. A win, in their case, really is a win.
For Alabama, it’s probably important for Mac Jones to not look bad today. That shouldn’t be too difficult against Western Carolina, but if Jones does play badly, it could have an adverse effect on Alabama in the rankings—potentially one Alabama can’t afford.
Minnesota, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Utah could all stand to utterly demolish their opponents. If the race comes down to two or more of a one-loss Pac-12 champion, a one-loss Oklahoma, a one-loss Big Ten champion, and a one-loss Alabama, subjectivity will play a large role. Flawless football, or as near to it as can be played, would go a long way today.
Second-Hand Important
UCLA @ USC (USC wins in 82.7% of simulations)
USC rose into the top 25 this week, which helps Utah’s case, given the Utes lost to USC back in September. Utah’s fate isn’t entirely tied to the Trojans, but USC’s performance figures to make an impact. In simulations in which the Trojans win today, Utah makes the playoff 21.6% of the time. In those in with USC loses, Utah makes the cut only 16.8% of the time.
The Main Event
Penn State @ Ohio State (Ohio State wins in 84.9% of simulations)
The consequences here are either simple or very complicated. It depends who wins.
If Ohio State wins, Penn State’s playoff odds will likely hit zero percent, at least after our model reduces its error margins following Tuesday night’s rankings. Ohio State’s will rise to 98.1%, with our model indicating even losing the Big Ten Championship would only drop the Buckeyes to 84.4% playoff likely.
If Penn State wins, a little bit of hell breaks loose. Penn State’s chances rise to 32.3%. Ohio State’s fall to 76.1%. Penn State likely wins the Big Ten East, leaving Ohio State needing to beat Michigan to finish 11-1, at which point their overall body of work would probably be enough, according to our model, but might not be. Since LSU and Ohio State are so far out in front of the field, our model has a harder time gauging where exactly the committee has them placed relative to that field than it does when it comes to teams in the thick of the pack. If Ohio State’s closer to Clemson than past precedent would indicate, or if the loss is a bad one, that 76.1% number could drop a lot further, fast.
The long and short of it is that a Penn State triumph today turns the playoff from a race for the final spot into a race for the final two spots. The former, as it stands, is uncertain. The latter could get quite wild.
