We got a few units last night from our stop–the–bleeding play. The Pacers could give us a few more tonight. Step by step?
Another MLB moneyline today, today’s playoff basketball and hockey futures, and our weekday baseball futures. Off we go.
Anaheim at San Diego
With the losing streak stopped before it got going, we’re back to value maximization today. That leads us to the Angels, who were down to their last out last night before Taylor Ward made the Padres’ bullpen pay for a messy ninth inning. We’re uncomfortable picking a bad team against a good team, but it’s worth remembering that expectations weren’t that high for San Diego entering the year, and we do have those tests showing Monday winners tend to be undervalued on Tuesdays.
Pick: Anaheim to win +184. 15.00 units to win 27.60. Soriano and Cease must start.
NL Central
To get a sense of how advantageous these odds are, look at the next odds down. The Yankees are listed at 8-to-1 to win the World Series, and the Cardinals—only one game behind a Cubs team down its top two pitchers—are at 9-to-1 to win the NL Central.
Pick: St. Louis to win +900. 2.00 units to win 18.00.
World Series
More on the Yankees today. We took a look at the Phillies (we only have one postseason future on them, a World Series play at 14-to-1), but the value’s slightly lower, and the probability’s a lot lower given the Phils aren’t that likely to win the NL East. We’re admittedly still figuring out how to balance profit probability and value. We know we want higher profit probability than last year, but we haven’t found a perfect process yet which achieves that. We’ll try to nail that down soon, but for now, it’s going to be a lot of judgment calls like this one: Do we take the Yankees at +13% EV or the Twins at +68%, having slightly more down on the Twins already? Today, we pick the Yankees.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +800. 2.00 units to win 16.00.
Second Round: Cleveland vs. Indiana
Here’s the state of our NBA playoff portfolio, before placing this bet:
- Lost 6.84 units on the first round.
- Expect to lose 8.00 units on the second round (Golden State, Denver) plus 12.00 units on Celtics conference and Finals futures.
- Expect to make 10.02 units on Pacers and Knicks second round bets.
- Hold 40.00 units of MIN upside and 2.00 units of MIN downside, all on the conference finals.
- Hold 8.60 units of OKC upside and 6.00 units of OKC downside, all on the Finals.
- 161.16 units available to bet.
This isn’t a great spot to occupy, obviously. Jayson Tatum’s injury is bad. Losing those first round units was bad. That said, we’re most likely going to profit on the second round, and the Nuggets aren’t eliminated yet. (The Warriors technically aren’t either, but with no Steph Curry for Game 5 in Minnesota, it’s bleak.)
We’re going to pour four days’ worth of units onto the Pacers today. They don’t have this series locked up, but it looks good, and this bet puts us in a place where we only have 10 units on them, standing to make 10.68. That leaves us only needing to make up about seven and a half units in our worst-case scenario. Seven and a half is a big number, but it isn’t impossibly large.
Pick: Indiana to win series –290. 8.00 units to win 2.76.
Stanley Cup
This portfolio’s situation’s more binary: If the Jets and Leafs both lose this round, we’re in deep trouble.
That said…
If the Jets and Leafs do both lose this round, our model will probably see value on the Oilers and Panthers in the next round, with plenty of time and plenty of units to make up ground. Also, if the Jets win tonight (as only something like +125 underdogs), they’ll be favored to take a 3–2 series lead.
Basically, the value’s good enough here to justify one more Winnipeg future. Especially since our risk is smaller than it looks.
Pick: Winnipeg to win +1800. 2.00 units to win 36.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –193.05 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 331 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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