A big win by the Pacers, a nice cover by the Mets, and we won’t talk about Zack Littell and the mean things we said about him.
More MLB moneyline action today, no Rockies run line (because it’s Sunday), and our daily NHL and NBA playoff futures. MLB futures are off for the weekend. We’ll try to get back in on motorsports next week. A little too out of the loop on those to be betting them right now.
Anaheim at Cleveland
Maybe Gavin Williams bounces back from his rough outing against the Dodgers and we look silly. Maybe Jack Kochanowicz’s bounces back from his good outing against the Yankees in a bad way. Our read on this game, though, is that Kochanowicz is more capable than bettors think, that there’s more reason to be skeptical of Williams than bettors think, and that bettors are making too much of Cleveland going for the series win and too little of Cade Smith probably being unavailable, having pitched on back-to-back days.
Pick: Anaheim to win +180. 15.00 units to win 27.00. Kochanowicz and Williams must start.
NBA Finals Game 1
We aren’t going to hammer this over the next few days, but since books are currently taking a huge vig on NBA Finals odds for the series as a whole, we’re going to take a shot, at least for today.
We can see markets undervaluing the Pacers. We don’t really know how these teams compare, especially since it’s been six weeks since an Eastern Conference team played a Western Conference team. We know the Thunder are better, but there’s uncertainty as to how much better. Also: Surprising teams in Game 1 has kind of been these Pacers’ thing.
For our portfolio’s sake, this leaves our scenarios as follows:
| Winner | G1 Winner | Total |
| Thunder | Pacers | 46.68 |
| Pacers | Pacers | 25.58 |
| Thunder | Thunder | 13.08 |
| Pacers | Thunder | -8.02 |
Not a bad lineup. That last scenario—the only one where we currently lose units—is very unlikely. If the Thunder win Game 1, it’s tough to see the Pacers winning this series. In other words, we do have some leverage balancing this out.
Still 174.98 units available if we want to spend them. We’ll see how markets move tomorrow after a full day of betting.
Pick: Indiana to win +320. 8.00 units to win 25.60.
Stanley Cup Finals Game 1
We’ll need to make some adjustments to our model to see how many games it expects this series to go. We’d rather be betting that than individual game moneylines. But, our model sees value on the Oilers in Game 1, and we aren’t inclined to disagree. The nice thing too, as we’re about to show in this next table, is that if the Oilers do win Game 1, that would give us a little relief from the Panthers threat.
| Winner | G1 Winner | Total |
| Oilers | Oilers | 24.81 |
| Oilers | Panthers | 15.78 |
| Panthers | Oilers | -56.11 |
| Panthers | Panthers | -65.14 |
If the Panthers really do land at +200 after an Oilers Game 1 win, which is our conservative guess, this still doesn’t quite get us to hedge-able territory, but if prices move back to where the Oilers are profitable for the series these next few days, the days before Game 1, we could get there with our five daily units. As we’ve been saying, hedging isn’t the plan. But it’s a nice benchmark to reach. It would mean we weren’t actively trailing the market.
Pick: Edmonton to win –124. 5.00 units to win 4.03.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –303.37 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 355 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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