It was looking like a 2–0 night last night, but the Orioles’ bullpen did some masterful work. Fair play, as the British say. (They say that, right?)
More MLB moneyline action today, a little bit of NASCAR, and our daily NBA and NHL playoff futures.
Baltimore at Sacramento
Back on this today. We still don’t buy that there’s a home-field disadvantage in Sacramento.
Pick: Sacramento to win +108. 15.00 units to win 16.20. Sugano and Lopez must start.
NBA Finals
Going back to our crude simulations: Even if we accept the dubious Game 2 moneyline as the true indicator of tonight’s probabilities, and even if we accept the now-suspect Game 1 moneyline as the true indicator of the series baseline, we get an 89% probability the Pacers win at least one more game this series. Twelve units on that happening leaves our portfolio with the following breakdown by scenario, given what we’ve bet so far:
| Winner | Games | Total |
| Pacers | 6 or 7 | 132.69 |
| Pacers | 5 | 115.09 |
| Pacers | 4 | 95.53 |
| Thunder | 6 or 7 | 64.87 |
| Thunder | 5 | 31.84 |
Pick: Indiana +2.5 Games (–350). 12.00 units to win 3.43.
Stanley Cup Finals
The Panthers –1.5 angle from yesterday has closed, but our model still likes the series under, and we ride with our model.
New scenarios:
| Result | Probability | Total |
| Oilers in 5 | 14.1% | 48.23 |
| Oilers in 6 | 17.3% | 20.48 |
| Oilers in 7 | 18.7% | 3.67 |
| Panthers in 5 | 14.8% | -32.55 |
| Panthers in 6 | 20.1% | -60.30 |
| Panthers in 7 | 15.2% | -95.11 |
Pick: Under 6.5 Games (–165). 6.00 units to win 3.64.
FireKeepers Casino 400 (NASCAR Cup Series at Michigan)
This is more of a longshot than we like to place on “normal” NASCAR races, but Top Chevrolet is a weird market. Kyle Larson and William Byron are both shorter than 3-to-1 odds. After that, five drivers—the other two Hendrick guys plus Kyle Busch, Carson Hocevar, and Ross Chastain—face odds between 7-to-1 and 11-to-1. Beyond them, the other eight Chevys are all listed at or longer than 40-to-1.
Saying one of those other eight “can’t win” this market is an exaggeration. But if you treat them as one competitor, you can conceptualize this as an eight-competitor field: Larson, Byron, Elliott, Bowman, Busch, Hocevar, Chastain, and Other. The average odds there should be 7-to-1.
Does Kyle Busch have an “above average” chance at finishing as the top Chevrolet, then? Obviously, we think he does. Specifically, I think bettors are underrating his performance at Kansas and how solid his performance has been overall this year. He’s getting some upward pull from qualifying as the top Chevy (he’ll start on the front row), but those other factors seem ignored. The guy’s in playoff position right now, and while he doesn’t pass like he used to, he’s got speed. Our read is that he should be closer to Byron in this market than he is to Elliott and the rest.
Pick: Top Chevrolet – Kyle Busch +700. 3.00 units to win 21.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –300.22 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 367 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio and two partly completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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