Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,027 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 5% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 5%’s into a whole lot more than 5% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
More futures today, and as always with those, the odds come from Bovada (an up-to-date Vegas Consensus on futures is hard to come by). First, though…
Game 1: St. Louis @ Milwaukee
Adam Wainwright’s having a great year. His 2.91 ERA is his best since 2014. He’s made it through six innings in all but one start. His average exit velocity is down from last year.
His FIP’s still 4.22, though, and the Brewers’ offense is still a healthy, potent thing, as yesterday showed.
Pick: Over 6 +100. Low confidence.
New York (NL) @ Philadelphia
It’s aces in Philadelphia tonight, with Jacob deGrom squaring off against Zack Wheeler as the Mets cling to playoff hopes and the Phillies try to hold even with the Marlins.
As is often the case when pitchers this good face one another, the mean projected total is being underestimated by the market, especially with bullpens this suspect and the wind forecasted to blow out to center.
Pick: Over 7.5 -110. Low confidence.
Atlanta @ Baltimore
Cole Hamels makes his Atlanta debut tonight, and while we don’t know what to expect, even modest expectations (a 4.50-ish ERA) put these odds in the favorable category.
Pick: Atlanta to win -177. Low confidence.
Futures
The Astros might be getting Justin Verlander back to pair with Zack Greinke atop a playoff rotation.
Cleveland is looking most likely to play the Matt Chapman-less A’s or the outperforming-their-BaseRuns Rays in the Wild Card Series.
The Brewers get five more shots against the Cardinals over the season’s last weekend, while their other competition—the Reds—has series remaining against both the White Sox and the Twins.
Check your portfolio to see if these make sense, but there’s raw value with all three.
Pick: Houston to win ALCS +1000. Low confidence.
Pick: Cleveland to win ALCS +1200. Low confidence.
Pick: Milwaukee to win NLCS +2500. Low confidence.
