Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,351 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 31–32 so far, down 3.44 units. We started poorly, we rallied, and we were on another cold stretch going into this week. That said, we’ve gone 6–1 over the last two days to make 2.91 units. Mixed bag.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.79 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down one unit so far.
San Diego @ Chicago (NL)
Dylan Cease is off to a great start, and that’s concerning, but the Padres is a West Coast team playing an early game with the more depleted bullpen between the two. Hayden Wesneski doesn’t have to be as good as he was on Friday for the Cubs to get the win.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +113. Low confidence. (Cease and Wesneski must start.)
Miami @ Los Angeles
It’s not really a getaway day for Los Angeles, who has tomorrow off before an intra-California road trip. The bullpen is fresh. Ryan Weathers has had some struggles this year. In one sense, it’s risky to bet these big favorites, but the probability of a win is still very high. We think it’s high enough to give this value.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –248. Low confidence. (Weathers and Stone must start.)
Game 1: Texas @ Oakland
We don’t think the Rangers are that good, and we don’t think the A’s are that bad. On paper, the teams are a lot closer in quality right now than “reigning World Series champion vs. team whose owner is trying to drive the city away.”
Pick: Oakland to win +111. Low confidence. (Lorenzen and Sears must start.)
Chicago (AL) @ Tampa Bay
Aaron Civale is one of those pitchers with a bad ERA and a good FIP/xERA. We love to bet those guys.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –230. Low confidence. (Flexen and Civale must start.)
Houston @ New York (AL)
Spencer Arrighetti is another of those pitchers with a bad ERA and a good FIP/xERA. His ERA’s even worse. As long as it isn’t in his head, he’s valuable. Given he’s coming off his most successful outing in his young career, we don’t expect him to be preemptively rattled tonight.
Pick: Houston to win +135. Low confidence. (Arrighetti and Rodón must start.)
AL East
The market’s a little late in its adjustment to the Yankees’ recent surge, and we’re going to take advantage of that. If this does turn into a two-team race between New York and Baltimore, we’ll need to place a lot of these (because we also have units down on the Red Sox and Rays to win this division), but placing them at longer–than–even odds will eventually get us to a spot where either option is profitable for us.
Pick: New York to win +110. Medium confidence.
NL West
This is, ever so slightly, a positive eROI line. With those so hard to come by with the Dodgers every year, we’re taking it, even though the payoff is miniscule. Every little bit helps.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –1400. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
If the opponent isn’t going to be the Nuggets, or is going to be a version of the Nuggets that’s less than 100%—and right now, those are the likeliest scenarios—Boston is valuable at odds longer than even. It’s boring, but it’s the only valuable play that isn’t accompanied by meaningful doubt.
Pick: Boston to win +105. Low confidence.
Western Conference
In the NHL, we’re back in on the Avs. Gelo continues to see the Stars as overvalued, something we’ve theorized might stem from Gelo undervaluing the Knights. We’re getting less convinced of that, though, and this allows us to incorporate Gelo’s bet that the Oilers are independently overvalued. Colorado is our favorite option in the West.
Pick: Colorado to win +175. Low confidence.
