Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,858 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today. Here’s what to know about how we operate in each.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 24–10, we’re up 12.93 units, we’re up 38% (the average line on our winners has been –105). Things have been really, really good.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.74 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.29 units so far.
Atlanta @ Miami
Braxton Garrett hasn’t been going deep into games, but he’s been electric so far, with 19 strikeouts and just three walks over his 22 innings of work. He’s had some good luck with contact—his xERA’s 4.38 against an ERA and FIP of 2.45 and 2.78, respectively—but FIP and xERA are just as predictive as one another, and the baseline expectation leaves his performance in the 4+ range anyway. The market’s a little higher on the Marlins than the teams’ respective quality might suggest, but we’re right here with it.
Pick: Miami to win +124. Low confidence. (Wright and Garrett must start.)
NL East
There’s a lot of time for things to go wrong, but at the moment, Atlanta is poised to run away with the NL East. They’re the best team in it on paper and they’re three games up in the loss column as we get into May. We’re happy to maximize our upside on the biggest division favorite in the game.
Pick: Atlanta to win –220. Medium confidence.
AL Central
The second-biggest division favorite is also showing positive value, with the Twins the only team in the AL Central with a winning record. With the White Sox dead to rights and the Guardians struggling so far, the Central at least looks for the moment like Minnesota’s to lose. We like them to get the job done.
Pick: Minnesota to win –170. Medium confidence.
Eastern Conference
We don’t love this conceptually, because the Sixers are rather likely to lose tonight, but the value is good and we like what it does for our portfolio. Currently, in the Eastern Conference market, we have one dead unit on the Cavs, two units on the Heat, and now two units on the Sixers, with the previous bet at +450 a few weeks ago. This broadens our Sixers upside, something helpful in the roughly 25% likely scenario where they meet the Knicks next round, and it doesn’t much hurt our chances in the roughly 50% likely scenario where the Sixers are ultimately eliminated by the Celtics (while we don’t have anything on Boston to win the East, we do have two units on them to with the Finals).
Pick: Philadelphia to win +220. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
On the ice, Gelo sees the value here as very small, but with nothing else outstanding on the Devils and with something outstanding on every other positive-value team, we’re happy to take this. It makes our best scenario a Devils/Panthers Eastern Conference Finals. It’s the likeliest matchup as of right now.
Pick: New Jersey to win +275. Low confidence.
