Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,958 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today. Here’s where each one stands.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 36–26, we’re up 5.94 units, we’re up 10% (the average line on our winners has been –113). May hasn’t been a great month, but we’ve been profitable over the last half of it.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 17.63 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 5.49 units so far.
Philadelphia @ New York (NL)
Aaron Nola’s struggled with the home run this year, but Carlos Carrasco has been a lot worse overall. We like the Phillies to even up the series in Queens.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –109. Low confidence. (Nola and Carrasco must start.)
NLCS
The Padres haven’t had a good month, currently sitting five games below .500 over May with series losses to the Royals, Red Sox, Twins, Yankees, and Dodgers (twice—once by sweep). They did beat Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins last night, though, and they still have all that talent, with all that commitment to get better by the trade deadline. They’re two and a half games outside of playoff position. There’s value here.
Pick: San Diego to win +1000. Medium confidence.
World Series
There is, in correlated fashion, value here as well. We’re doubling up on the Pads today, where there was previously a Pads shortage in our portfolio.
Pick: San Diego to win +1800. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals (Hedge)
We explained this a bit yesterday, but we have a lot of NBA profit in the bank and a lot of upside remaining on the Heat. We don’t think the value’s on the Nuggets, but we’ll take them anyway, slowly improving our worst-case scenario (which isn’t very bad).
Pick: Denver to win –415. Low confidence.
Stanley Cup (Hedge)
Similar story here, except we don’t think there’s value on anyone in the market right now. Gelo and the market are mostly in lockstep on this matchup right now.
Pick: Florida to win +105. Low confidence.
