Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,397 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus NBA and NHL futures. We’re taking another planned day off from MLB futures, but those should return tomorrow.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 45–50 so far, down 9.63 units. It is going terribly. We did win our last three, though. And for better or worse, there is a lot of season left.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 1.17 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 2.20 units so far.
Houston @ Seattle
Winning this series would be big for the Mariners with the Astros climbing back into the picture lately. We’re happy to bet against Justin Verlander—he’s very, very old—but our question with George Kirby is whether we should be concerned about the recent glut of home runs against him. He’s allowed two apiece in his last two outings, and he’s allowed seven in his last four.
Ultimately, we’re not seeing a lot that we like among tonight’s options, so we’re going to have to accept some level of red flag. With Kirby and the home runs, we’re encouraged by the walk numbers staying down. He’s probably been missing a few more pitches than usual, but without walking batters, it’s harder to believe this is a persistent issue with command.
Pick: Seattle to win –105. Low confidence. (Verlander and Kirby must start.)
NBA Finals
The Timberwolves extending the series against the Mavericks is big for us, but if we do hedge there, we’re going to wait until tomorrow. Today, we’re still seeing value on Boston and taking it.
Pick: Boston to win –220. Low confidence.
NHL Western Conference
Not a bad price here on the Stars, as we continue to fade the Oilers. We’re definitely afraid of Edmonton rallying—they have so much offensive firepower—but the Stars, as they’ve shown, are the better team.
Pick: Dallas to win –245. Low confidence.
