Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,912 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,618 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FiveThirtyEight’s models are heavily used in making NBA and soccer futures picks. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Our NHL picks are based on Gelo, our own model.
All four markets today. Here’s where each one stands.
On single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 33–22, we’re up 7.29 units, we’re up 13% (the average line on our winners has been –113). It’s been a good start to the year, and while May hasn’t been a great month, we’ve been more on track lately, winning our last four.
For the MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities.
For the NBA future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NBA futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 69 days (if there’s an NBA Finals Game 7). With many payouts coming before the end of the postseason, this will hopefully leave us with at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 7.63 units so far.
For the NHL future: We began the postseason with 75 units in our NHL futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend one a day over the postseason’s 63 days (if there’s a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7). The idea is the same as the NBA—we’re hoping to always have at least 25 units on hand at all times should we see an arbitrage opportunity or want to hedge. We’re up 0.73 units so far.
Los Angeles @ Atlanta
Tony Gonsolin is 29 years old, has pitched in five MLB seasons, and has yet to post a season where his ERA is worse than either his xERA or his FIP with the sole exception of 2020, when his ERA was 2.31, his xERA was 3.33, and his FIP was 2.29. A narrow margin.
You could argue that Gonsolin is doing something repeatable here, by virtue of him repeating it. He’s only thrown more than sixty innings in a season one time, though, and he isn’t yet to 300 innings on his career. So, what we really have is a bunch of small samples turning out very, very well. That makes his 1.13 ERA still suspect.
Pick: Atlanta to win –117. Low confidence. (Gonsolin and Elder must start.)
World Series
There’s narrowly positive value available today on the Yankees, but while it’s only a 0.1% eROI (really, it’s that small)—we’re going to take it, because we take new positive value when it arrives.
One thing making this probably a little better play: The Yankees are likely to improve their roster in July. That can’t be said with as much certainty of every contender, so it probably raises the Yankees a little bit over FanGraphs’s projections. It certainly doesn’t make FanGraphs too high on them.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +1200. Medium confidence.
AL Central
There’s value on the White Sox as well, with their recent hotter turn pulling them within a handful of games in the Central. These are still long odds, but there’s value, and if things go wrong for the Twins, this division is poised to become a mess.
Pick: Chicago (AL) to win +1500. Medium confidence.
Eastern Conference (Hedge)
We hate this bet, we think this is terrible value, we wish we were in a position to not make it. Being in an all-time hole, though, we want to lock in value when there’s value to be locked in. Taking the Celtics here and putting two units on them means we won’t lose any units on the Eastern Conference, however it turns out, and we’ll maintain our solid position entering the Finals should the Celtics indeed pull off this series comeback. We don’t think they will, but we have enough upside on the Heat to make this begrudgingly the smart move right now.
Pick: Boston to win +250. Low confidence. x2
Stanley Cup
There isn’t much value out there right now in hockey markets, but what there is resides on the Knights. If the Knights do make the Stanley Cup Finals, and they do play the Panthers, this will move in the shorter direction, which means this doesn’t hinder our ability to hedge on Florida when the time comes (we’re expecting to enter the Stanley Cup Finals up 6.44 units on the postseason, with 24.42 units of upside from Vegas and 8.35 units of downside on Florida, so we’re going to hedge out of the downside).
Pick: Vegas to win –115. Low confidence.
