Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,387 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 42–46 so far, down 8.50 units. This is like when a young team unexpectedly performs well one season then opens slow to start the next year: We don’t know whether we’re going to heat back up or if we’re actually just bad at this.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.67 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day. We’re down 2.20 units so far.
San Diego @ Cincinnati
This is a tricky game. Both teams have significant players listed as day-to-day, and the Reds have been playing bad baseball of late. Nick Martinez has been so effective, though, in his Swiss army knife role, and the Padres are still coming off that Monday doubleheader in Atlanta. On paper, this looks like great value for Cincinnati if you assume day-to-day guys will play. Given Xander Bogaerts doesn’t seem especially likely to go for the Pads, we’re guessing that value’s real.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +114. Low confidence. (King and Martinez must start.)
World Series
This is a good price for the Royals, whose 31–19 record has them more likely to make the playoffs than miss them, partially thanks to the gauntlet awaiting the Rays, Red Sox, and Blue Jays in the AL East. They’re getting big production from both their young stars and their older veterans, and the pitching has been great. We think they’re for real.
The Padres are in a bind, especially with Bogaerts potentially about to go on the IL. But! Despite being below .500, the Padres are in playoff position right now. The National League has five good teams. Six will make the playoffs. A 65-to-1 World Series bet on a playoff team would be a huge asset in our back pocket. We’re not guaranteeing San Diego will play into October, but the probability’s good enough to stock up.
Pick: Kansas City to win +5000. Medium confidence.
Pick: San Diego to win +6500. Medium confidence.
NBA Finals
We continue to back the Timberwolves, with plenty of Finals upside on the Celtics and nothing outstanding on the Mavs or Pacers. A Minnesota win tonight would be huge for us. The letdown possibility, or at least the possibility they miss a beat, is scary.
Pick: Minnesota to win +265. Low confidence.
NHL Western Conference
Slightly shorter odds than yesterday here, but we’ll take them again. We have enough upside on the Rangers for right now. We need to diversify, and the Stars are our best option.
Pick: Dallas to win –130. Low confidence.
