Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,334 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We’re relying on Neil Paine’s NBA forecast as the basis for our playoff futures portfolio. We use our own Gelo model as the basis for our NHL playoff futures portfolio.
Active markets today: Major League Baseball moneylines, plus MLB, NBA, and NHL futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re trying the same approach this year. We’re 23–26 so far, down 3.07 units. We’re on another cold stretch right now, but we did get a nice little win last night.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NBA futures: We’ve only done these once before, but they went well. I believe we made a 7% return on our investment last year. We started at the beginning of the Play-In Tournament with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly just placing one future per day. We’re up 2.39 units so far.
NHL futures: We’ve had mixed results on these. In 2022, we lost 25% of our futures portfolio. Last year, we made a 33% return. We began on the first day of the playoffs with a 100-unit portfolio. Right now, we’re mostly placing just one future per day.
Tampa Bay @ Milwaukee
To be honest, we probably wouldn’t place this one if we were more confident in the late game. Having been on this cold streak, we’re a little biased towards over-betting when our system’s prescribed MLB play is an underdog. To put this in basketball terms: We want to see one go in. This is part of what keyed our mid-April comeback.
What our system doesn’t like about this is that Zach Eflin has been a little worse than expectations so far. His projected FIP is 3.38 on FanGraphs’s Depth Charts, and his real FIP is 3.73, while his real xERA is 3.45. This is a tiny miss of the FIP–xERA window, but our system doesn’t like it, and our system had a very good 2023.
What we like about this is that Colin Rea has been much worse than his projections, and much, much worse than his ERA. Projected FIP: 4.58. Real FIP: 5.29. Real xERA: 6.14. Real ERA: 3.25. That’s the kind of guy that gets overvalued in the market, especially around this time of year where the sample’s no longer nothing.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –109. Low confidence. (Eflin and Rea must start.)
Los Angeles @ Arizona
The Diamondbacks burned a ton of bullpen last night. What our system cares about, though, is not how much bullpen a team has left. It’s how much they’re missing. What it’s looking for is whether your lost projected WAR due to pitcher use and non-IL injuries is more than your opponent’s, something which would theoretically affect the FanGraphs win probability. The Diamondbacks’ isn’t. Yes, the Dodgers have more bullpen fresh. But FanGraphs already knows LA has a bullpen advantage here.
Pick: Arizona to win +129. Low confidence. (Yamamoto and Montgomery must start.)
NLCS
We’d like to make the Braves a profitable option for us in the NL pennant chase, and while that might be expensive, it’s likely to only get pricier from here. There’s been this phenomenon the last few years where the market is higher on the Dodgers and lower on the Braves than FanGraphs is, and we don’t know whether that will stick around. Ideally, it’ll flip after we build a big position on Atlanta.
Pick: Atlanta to win +210. Medium confidence.
AL West
This breaks our rules a little bit—there are unprofitable team–market combos we’re leaving unaddressed—but we’re trying to make both the Mariners and Astros profitable AL West options for us while there’s value available on each. The value on the Mariners is higher today, especially coming off a big win over Atlanta (those kinds of wins are almost always more valuable than the market appreciates). So, we’ll take it and hope the value on Houston’s still there tomorrow.
Pick: Seattle to win +160. Medium confidence.
First Round: Milwaukee vs. Indiana
Tyrese Haliburton is dealing with back spasms, there’s at least a little chance the Bucks get one or both of Giannis and Dame back, and the backups did just beat the Pacers. The odds are long, but Milwaukee’s only at +280 to win Game 6, in a market much more traditionally efficient than series prices. Win that, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see them favored in Game 7.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +635. Low confidence.
NBA Finals
Meanwhile, the combination of a not–that–serious injury to Kristaps Porziņģis and the resurrections of the Bucks and Sixers has led to a decently good price on Boston, the title favorite. We take those when we can get them.
Pick: Boston to win +135. Low confidence.
Western Conference (NHL)
It’s probably time to bet on the Stars. We’ve been waiting on this, fearing that Vegas might be lightyears better than their regular season selves, as the market and the narrative have implied, but four games isn’t a meaningless sample in a sport as streaky as hockey. Gelo still sees value on Dallas. We’ll grab it now in case they win tonight and shorten their price dramatically. That is, according to the ruthlessly efficient single-game market, more likely than not.
Pick: Dallas to win +450. Low confidence.
