Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -3.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,858 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Gelo hit both its unders yesterday, turning around from a recent poor trend. More from it on tonight’s action and futures, then our latest baseball plays. For portfolio context: The NHL futures bankroll started at 100 units, with 100 in reserve in case of hedging need, while the MLB futures bankroll started at 520 units, with another 520 in reserve for October and any necessary hedging.
New York Rangers @ Carolina
Gelo likes both underdogs and both overs tonight, but the gaps on the overs are small and the odds are short, making those questionable plays value-wise. So, we’ll go with the moneyline pair, with the probability of hitting at least one, even at the probabilities the market implies, somewhere around 65%.
Pick: New York to win +145. Low confidence.
Edmonton @ Calgary
Fun fact: Gelo thinks the Flames are the worst team left in the playoffs. Did not like their performance against Dallas.
Pick: Edmonton to win +137. Low confidence.
Eastern Conference
The highest value on the Lightning is in the Stanley Cup market, but that’s somewhere we already have coverage on them. We’ll add a pair of conference title futures on them, as Gelo reacts more favorably to last night’s result than the market does.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +220. Low confidence.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +220. Low confidence.
NL East
The NL East is starting to become more of a longshot-heavy, value-play piece of our overall division outlook. With this and our previous bet on the Phillies, we’re in good shape should the Mets slip up. We’d like to be in good shape if the Mets don’t slip up as well, but that might come more from divisions like the AL West and the NL Central.
Pick: Atlanta to win +350. Medium confidence.
World Series
Speaking of the NL Central, the market’s underestimation of the likelihood the Brewers win it is creating value down the line as well. Not a bad idea to add more on Milwaukee.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +1100. Medium confidence.
